[Bootleg Football] You care a lot about the Panthers, you just don't know it yet.

[Icege]

 

Summary

• Acknowledges that most people watching aren't Panthers fans, but tells a familiar story: A football fan is sitting and eating snacks and gets curious about a random football team, so they turn the game on and watch them. The result? Pure entertainment. Potentially the most entertaining football game of the season. The Panthers are going to be that team that the entire league becomes a fan of during a random week this season.
• Brett is more optimistic than most Carolina fans: "They're a solid football team."
• First half is going to be discussing everything that went wrong, second half is what they believe is getting right
• EPA ranks
  • 32nd in points allowed, points differential, rush defense
  • 31st in pass defense
  • 26th in passing offense
  • 23rd in points scored
  • 11th in rushing offense
• The main reason the defense was awful: Derrick Brown got hurt. Nobody realized how important he was to the team until he wasn't in the lineup. The pass rush had evaporated as well, but without DB it completely gutted the run defense as well as the pass rush due to how much revolves around him. They weren't a talented enough unit to even approach making up for his absence. Had to blitz as a result.
  • 10th highest blitz-rate in the NFL with a bottom-4, bottom-3 pressure rate (worst pass rush in the NFL when not blitzing). Couldn't tackle in space, couldn't cover, got blown off of the ball in the run game
  • Folks will point to DB's sack numbers as him not being as impactful as they're saying. He had 12 QB hits in 2022, 15 in 2023 so while he isn't finishing sacks he's still the straw stirring the drink.
• 32nd in DL pass-rush win rate, 32nd in DL pressure-rate with a 3rd down blitz-rate of 47.2% (2nd in the NFL). Couldn't get home early, couldn't get home late, just couldn't get home. Early downs they were even worse.
  • 4th most snaps with light boxes (due to safety rotation) (32nd in quarters call)
  • Couldn't stop the run even though they majored in cover 3, couldn't rush the passer even though they blitzed a lot. Bad on 1st down, worst on 2nd down, and apocalyptic on 3rd down. Physically impossible for the defense to be worse this season coming.
• The team tried to duct tape things around and lean on Shaq after DB went down, but then he went down and the wheels fell completely off
  • Had pocket crushers that could hold their place on the line but nobody that would come screaming off the edge
  • Would've been able to "hold its own" but when the keystone went down so did the rest of the unit and the strategy built around it
• Evero did a good job of scheming up free runners in the backfield to set up TFLs but guys just kept missing tackles. One of the risks of leaning on safety rotation is that it can create awkward angles for safeties in the run game as they're rotating while the ball carrier is starting up. Safeties that struggle to tackle in space are going to miss even more tackles because of that.
  • Rotated from middle open to middle closed to 243 times which was 53% of their cover-3 snaps.
  • Allowed 6.7ypc in the run game against these rotations (2nd worst in the league)
  • 5th worst average depth of tackle on those rotations at 5.47yds
  • Most missed tackles in the league on those rotations at 40
    • 12 of those missed tackles were from LBs
    • 16 from DBs
    • Improving tackling alone would raise the team from dead last in every single metric to at least 20th which Panthers fans might be good with at this point
• Brown, Brown III, Wharton, Scourton, and Umanmielen on 3rd down? They can work with that. The DL is going to be the rising tide to lift the pass rush boat

 

Conversation is pivoting to the offense. Going to grab a quick bite to eat and then continue the summary in 15min!

 

[Icege]

Summary (continued)

• Brett: "Bryce Young was not the issue and anybody that says Bryce Young was the issue just wasn't paying attention to Carolina."
• Heavy focus on outside zone in the run game (8th in the league, called 40% of the time)
  • 8th in man-blocking
  • Jab was outside zone, hook was man
  • 53.9% outside zone from under center
  • 32nd in outside zone in shotgun (didn't do it once, but were 5th in man-blocking)
• Run game wasn't simplistic as much as the team recognized who they were and what they were good at. They were out executing opponents in the run game. The offense didn't have an identity in 2023, but in 2024 they found it in being able to establish the run
• Coming out of the Bye they played against KC, TB, and PHI in back-to-back-to-back games. Yes, they lost all three but...
  • Lost to KC by a field goal
  • Lost to TB by a field goal
  • Gave Philly a game, lost 22 - 16 but the Eagles were scrapping to stay alive against Carolina
• "For those of you that are not Panthers fans, if you didn't watch Bryce Young last year, would it shock you to know that he was the 11th-highest rated QB in all of football under pressure in the entire league last year?"
  • Higher under pressure passer rating than Jordan Love, CJ Stroud, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes. He was good under pressure last year
  • 4th in big-time throws under pressure only behind Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow
    • Didn't start the entire year but was still 4th in the league in that metric
  • He was legitimately a good starting QB last year after a rookie season where everything around him was so bad that it looked like he was wondering whether or not he could play football, but now we're seeing Bama Bryce
• When talking about the three game stretch Brett had, EJ reminds us: "Typically when you want to see a team climb out of the cellar, the progress comes in little bits. First thing is winning games against the teams you're 'supposed to beat.' Then beating teams in your division who you can really go head-to-head with and then maybe challenging those NFL elites. The Panthers kind of skipped those first two steps."
  • A lot of that was Bryce getting the team to believe in the pros like they had in college
• Canales did a good job of highlighting the Drew Brees-iness in Bryce Young's game (reading coverages and identifying opening spaces). A lot of the best offenses in the game today operate from under center and run play-action. QBs that can turn, give a hard fake, flip back, and make a split-second decision off of that limited info it's a super power. Bryce's super power isn't his arm or his legs, but his vision and processing.
  • 12th overall in under center rate
  • 30th overall in motion at the snap (don't want that going while the QBs eyes are turned)
  • 10th most passes from under center were play-action (91%)
• The ability to establish the run (especially under center) with a QB that's really good at play action from under center due to his vision + processing allow him to see things quickly enough to make it work gave them an identity. Same reasons that made Brees and Goff successful.
  • Expecting them to steal from Ben Johnson's offense because everything Goff does well, Bryce does well
• Coaching staffs aligning with their player strengths doesn't happen nearly as often as we think even at the NFL level, but that seems to be what's happening in Carolina. They went back and built Bryce back up and that has established the relationship that the offense is going to built on going further.

 

Next section is going into the front office + coaching staff. Got to handle a couple of things for work and then continuing the summary/summaries!

[PanthersATL]

thanks for the recap. Started to watch this yesterday until I saw it was an hour (didn't have that kind of time)

 

[CPF4LIFE]

Still doing gymnastics of excusing bryce for the last 2 years. Its tired at this point. However one feels....There will be absolutely none this year. Thats all that matters right now. 

[CRA]

the solid football team is a bit much.  That historically bad defense....isn't flipped on it's head if one player was inserted into it.    

[LinvilleGorge]

Yeah, honestly simply not being a bottom 10 defense would be a significant step in the right direction. I expect the D to be rough early on but just hoping to see it improve over the course of the season driven by our rookie pass rushers getting their feet wet. Our overall defensive effectiveness is going to be highly reliant on the play of those two rookies.

[Icege]

Summary (continued, again)

• Results weren't there in 2024, but so many lesser staffs and front offices would've crumbled on the road that the team had to go down but Carolina's guys nailed it
• Nobody thought this was a 1yr turn around because they were down so bad it was a multi-year process. It was more of a matter of how much improvement they can make in 1yr rather than simply turn it completely around.
• Harold Goodwin, the run game coordinator and assistant HC, was a big part in the team's run game flourishing as was offensive line coach Joe Gilbert. Carolina had talent on the OL but not much development prior to Gilbert. Major increases in a couple of stats with mostly the same talent.
  • Rush EPA in 2023: 25th
  • Rush EPA in 2024: 12th
  • Pressure % allowed on true drop backs in 2023: 24th
  • Pressure % allowed on true drop backs in 2024: 18th
  • Good coaching makes a difference. Good coaching for the OL is a super power that allows you to draft very differently and develop in ways other teams can't. Also allows them to save a ton of money in free agency because if you need an OT you're going to have to overpay for one if you can't draft & develop.
• Defensive pass game coordinator Jonathan Cooley has a big task in front of him but has more pieces to do it with. Not under the hot seat, but under an area of focus given the struggles the coverage had last season.

Talking free agency + draft now

• Notable losses: Jadaveon Clowney, Josey Jewell, Shaq Thompson, Jordan Fuller, Xavier Woods
• Notable retentions: Adam Thielen, Jaycee Horn, David Moore, Tommy Tremble, Michael Jackson Sr
  • Jaycee's APY being $25M compared to the top of market's $30M (which will then go up even more as other DBs get paid as well). Contract can age well if he stays healthy.
  • David Moore played ~60% of the offensive snaps last season
  • Mike Jackson Jr played 99% of the defensive snaps last season.
• Notable additions: Tershawn Wharton, Trevon Moehrig, Christian Rozeboom, Bobby Brown III, Patrick Jones II, Hunter Renfrow
  • Renfrow likely to make the final 53 and could end up the starting slot if Thielen is phased more into the WR4 "Old Man in the Room" role
  • Jones II potentially the starting EDGE until Scourton/Umanmielen are ready
  • Rozeboom now likely a starting LB with the departure of Jewell
• Most expensive interior DL rotation in the NFL. The team took as many resources as they could to throw at it.
  • Morgan has been consistent in this process. Did the same with the interior OL in 2024
• Through the draft and free agency they've assembled a roster with depth that was non-existent last season
• TMac there's debate outside of Carolina about whether or not he's better outside or inside the slot. His drop rate increased significantly, but EJ isn't concerned because he saw concentration drops rather than ability to drops. More of TMac's drops are from the former, which are correctable. It isn't a vision or a coordination issue, just taking his eye off of the ball and letting some of the basics get away from him when trying to think too far ahead. Carolina is going to lean on him early and often.
  • Going to fit the Colston/Thomas mold as a WR that is good at working the middle of the field, exceptional at reading defenses and finding space, giving his QB easy throws, and YAC. TMac is even better than Colston + Thomas after the catch.
  • Can see TMac being one of the better possession WRs in the league at the end of his rookie season
  • 60% contested catch rate in college
  • 5.1 YAC per reception (!!!)
• EJ really likes Nic Scourton. Thinks he has 8 - 9 sacks per year potential (10 sacks is not as frequent in the NFL as folks might want to believe). Brett sees a lot of similarity to GB big body edges like Rashan Gary that have better movement then expected for a big guy. Scourton has power and hands but way better hips than most guys his size which will help with finishing rushes. Could've been a late round one pick. A&M tape hurts him because they don't let their guys rush, but Purdue tape was great.
• Princely doesn't always win late in the downs, but when he wins early it takes your breath away. Has length and size but needs to start stacking moves because he doesn't grind through once his first move is stopped. If he takes to the pass rush coaching he can be a deadly designated pass rusher for them. Great first step similar to Bud Dupree. Princely is a pure speed rusher that wins off of the first step (especially with his snap timing) that can develop into a dangerous piece for the defense should he continue to add to his game. Can also use his speed to be a clean up option that stacks stats.
• Etienne felt like he was taken too early with other players available. While he's a good player, felt that #114 was too early for him especially with the aforementioned other players still available.
  • Brooks going on to the PUP shortly afterwards showed that they were going in there knowing at the very least that he wasn't playing in 2025
• Ransom does lots of things well but nothing great. He has though done a lot and has the potential to be a starter later in his career. More of a generalist than somebody that plays a hyper specific role. In some defenses, it's preferable to have a hyper specific role. Carolina rotating safeties so often means that they're going to want generalists that can do a little bit of everything for their system.
• Cam Jackson is a mountain of a man and a run stuffer. Don't let the 5th round fool you, there are run-stuffing DTs available in the 5th round. He holds the double team and let's the rest of the guys go hunt.
• Tremble/Sanders is a good 2TE set-up. Evans can fill in with enough size + speed that he can contribute on special teams as well as sub in.
• Brett didn't like the Evans pick but loved the Jimmy Horn Jr pick. EJ points out that he is a route technician that was cooking people at the Senior Bowl. Whoever stays healthy between Horn Jr and Renfrow is going to end up being the starting slot in Carolina which is going to be very, very dangerous for defenses to deal with. They become a cheat code on 3rd & medium.
  • Brett comments that Mitchell Evans has a higher chance of making the team due to the other talent in the room, but EJ is a big James Mitchell guy and pulling for him to compete with Evans for TE3
  • Jimmy Horn Jr would be a starter coming off of the practice squad. Thinks Carolina fans will start calling situations "3rd down and Jimmy" because of what he's going to be able to do. The WR room being so full though puts him at risk of not making the roster just due to numbers.
• Notable UDFAs: Luke Candra (G, Cincinnati), Jared Harrison-Hunte (DL, SMU), Jacolby George (WR, Miami), Moose Muhammad III (WR, Texas A&M)
  • If Horn Jr is at risk of not making the roster, UDFA WRs definitely aren't but are playing for practice squad spots at this point
  • The team in general has better depth this offseason so most of the UDFAs are competing for practice squad spots.
  • Brett thought Harrison-Hunte was going to be drafted in round 4 and was the best player on the SMU defensive front. Might have to settle for a practice squad spot due to all of the money spent on the IDL. Has a quick first step and can get lateral to attack a gap quickly with heavy hands. Has three-name guy profile like Roy Robertson-Harris, John Franklin Meyers, Sebastian Joseph Day
• Dan Morgan didn't let the fact that they were building depth sway them from signing UDFAs. So what if they don't make the 53, they're still going to come in and compete. NFL level competition for their practice squad. Lots of talents guys sitting on the 3rd and 4th strings that can potentially make the final roster or at least the practice squad. EJ loves the approach is too much is not enough because we weren't good enough last year and personnel won't be the reason for that again.
• Talent-wise, the defense is so much better now that they have NFL players (and enough of them). Carolina has primed itself to make a big jump.

Final segment coming up

[Icege]

Summary (finishing up!)

• Three questions are the core of this video series
  • What was their identity before?
  • What do they want their identity to be now?
  • What is the goal for this season?
• ID before was a team that could be pushed around in the trenches (defensively). ID for this season is that they want to be the team that pushed back.
• Offense didn't need that much work. Just needed a year to gel, but also got an infusion of talent. They've got the weapons, they've got the talent, they've got the offensive line, they've got the QB. Just need the defense to get up off of the mat and punch back.
• Now that the identity is a tougher and more physical football team the goal is the wildcard.
  • Might seem lofty but why not? Downtrodden and with a terrible roster, but one really good offseason that they knocked out of the park could let them into the top-14
  • Competing with Arizona, Atlanta, and Seattle... go get that 7th seed. Otherwise, why spend all of the money to improve the roster in just one year?
  • "Playoffs is possible" after the last three seasons is a great spot to be in mentally
• EJ thinks that they want to be the 2nd best team in the division. They won't say that out loud but thinks that TB is the best team in the division with a head start. Carolina is playing catch up and if they can be challenging for the second spot while also threatening the Bucs at the top, that is a big jump from the NFL cellar just one season ago. Being second in the division would be a successful season, but aim higher and aim for the playoffs and even win the division. That's the real progress that builds a football program year over year.
• Episode was longer than expected because they think the Panthers are more interesting than people expect. Lots of interesting storylines and things going on in Charlotte make them one of the more intriguing teams in the league. Can't wait to see what they look like in December.
• Saints are next... and it sounds like that video is going to be much, much harsher. "Bring a drink tomorrow."

[Icege]

59 minutes ago, CPF4LIFE said:

Still doing gymnastics of excusing bryce for the last 2 years. Its tired at this point. However one feels....There will be absolutely none this year. Thats all that matters right now. 

A video about the entire team and you find a way to make it about you hating Bryce Young.

Impressive.

[CarolinaLivin]

The 2024 Panthers info-graphic they reference often in the show

2074591592_CAROLINAPANTHERSINFOGRAPHIC.pdf

[Icege]

1 minute ago, CarolinaLivin said:

The 2024 Panthers info-graphic they reference often in the show

2074591592_CAROLINAPANTHERSINFOGRAPHIC.pdf 14.41 MB · 1 download

Thank you! That had a lot more info in it than I expected. 

[PleaseCutStewart]

Still think Bryce getting benched after week 2 last year was the wake-up call he needed that he can't half ass it and coast into being our starter. Hopefully that was the fire that needed to be lit under his ass for him to be an elite QB for us

[Navy_football]

32 minutes ago, PleaseCutStewart said:

Still think Bryce getting benched after week 2 last year was the wake-up call he needed that he can't half ass it and coast into being our starter. Hopefully that was the fire that needed to be lit under his ass for him to be an elite QB for us

I don't know. That's hard to believe. I've only heard that he "continued" to do everything he did before being benched. Probably more he had a chance to calm the F down and just play football without all the pressure. Also had an opportunity to see how a real pro runs an NFL offense. He was playing scared before. Scared of making a mistakes. Scared of throwing interceptions. Scared of getting sacked. Can't play football scared. It's a literal fight out there. And every week is against a title contender. 

[PanthersATL]

7 minutes ago, Navy_football said:

I don't know. That's hard to believe. I've only heard that he "continued" to do everything he did before being benched. Probably more he had a chance to calm the F down and just play football without all the pressure. Also had an opportunity to see how a real pro runs an NFL offense. He was playing scared before. Scared of making a mistakes. Scared of throwing interceptions. Scared of getting sacked. Can't play football scared. It's a literal fight out there. And every week is against a title contender. 

THIS.  Lots of coverage about how he didn't have a chance to see Andy (or anyone) run the offensive schemes that were being handed to him in a live game scenario.  Once he saw those things and how he could/should handle situations, he came out of the benching with a much better head