Monday practice tweets

[CRA]

Just now, Icege said:

When looking at the film instead of just the box scores like was done in here once or twice, it was clear why he was rated higher.

I mean, yes, there is a difference between looking at a box score and watching film.  But PFF has a big subjective aspect to some of their grades.  That's how you get a 2/4 being better than 3/5 with a TD.  You aren't using stats at that point or factual events, but subjective analysis of plays.   And it's not like it is the same subjective analysis applying across all the players.   Same guy grading BY's incompletions (which are putting him over the top) isn't grading everyone else's incompletions and completions.  So it's different subjective takes/viewpoints applied.  There is no way everyone at PFF views grading out a play the same. 

Then it all dumps into the same spreadsheet.  Hit the sort button.  Sometimes I feel it gets really weird and and collective data starts saying some weird stuff that just isn't true. 

 

[kungfoodude]

32 minutes ago, frankw said:

Jones is not a good QB and a turnover machine but he has made some franchise QB level throws. I've seen some nice throws from Bryce but to pretend like he is head and shoulders a more capable passer than Daniel Jones is not rooted in reality currently. Let's talk turkey not fantasy. Look at Jones completion percentage in his best year. 67%. Bryce is barely 60%. And let's keep this in perspective. Jones has something neither of our top 2 QB's here have. That's a playoff win.

I would have to disagree. Is it even possible to underrate someone when they go from amongst the worst of the worst to fringe top 20? I think most people see this for what it is. Bryce has some things he does very well. He's finally displaying the movement in and around the pocket that he showed in college. He has a nice ball in certain scenarios but there are still throws that defenses are waiting to see him make on a consistent basis. That's where the story will change.

Jones seems like the classic million dollar talent attached to a ten cent dome. Very Sam Darnold-esque. 

The talent is all there, the neurons are just not firing correctly to get all that talent into producing at an elite level.

It happens all the time. Justin Fields is another great example of that.

[mrcompletely11]

54 minutes ago, amcoolio said:

Bryce shown more advanced passing in his last 5 NFL games than Daniel Jones ever has in his entire career, college or pros. It was a stupid contract for that franchise to hand out, given what Daniel had shown, which is was just basic level passing combined with decent scramble ability.

Look I was very down on Bryce last year too and the jury is certainly still out but he is being underrated at this point. The passing and offensive command he showed in week 18 against Atlanta was as good as any QB that has ever played for this franchise. 

Luckily Carolina will have their answer in either direction after this year and can make a decision.

underrated?  Jesus H Christ

[Icege]

34 minutes ago, CRA said:

I mean, yes, there is a difference between looking at a box score and watching film.  But PFF has a big subjective aspect to some of their grades.  That's how you get a 2/4 being better than 3/5 with a TD.  You aren't using stats at that point or factual events, but subjective analysis of plays.   And it's not like it is the same subjective analysis applying across all the players.   Same guy grading BY's incompletions (which are putting him over the top) isn't grading everyone else's incompletions and completions.  So it's different subjective takes/viewpoints applied.  There is no way everyone at PFF views grading out a play the same. 

Then it all dumps into the same spreadsheet.  Hit the sort button.  Sometimes I feel it gets really weird and and collective data starts saying some weird stuff that just isn't true. 

 

Again, looking at the film clarifies why the 2/4 is better than the 3/5, especially when that 3/5 was due to WRs making opponents miss.

To clarify for those that are unaware: those stats are referring to Bryce Young and Will Levis. The game film showed how ridiculous it was to hyper focus on Levis' 3/5 for a TD because his completions were made wide open WRs that were running free vs. Bryce who made the more difficult throws AND was let down by a WR drop iirc.

I don't think it's intellectually honest to try and reframe things like this specific example wasn't already ejected into the sun with prejudice.

[CRA]

10 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

underrated?  Jesus H Christ

I didn't think underrated was the wildest statement.

The passing and offensive command he showed in week 18 against Atlanta was as good as any QB that has ever played for this franchise. 

I mean THAT part is wild.  Which plays into the overrated part.  End of regulation I don't think he even hit 200 yards passing.  I mean he had a very efficient day vs a weak defense.   As good as we have ever seen in Carolina? 

 

[PNW_PantherMan]

38 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Jones seems like the classic million dollar talent attached to a ten cent dome. Very Sam Darnold-esque. 

The talent is all there, the neurons are just not firing correctly to get all that talent into producing at an elite level.

It happens all the time. Justin Fields is another great example of that.

Jones got projected as the next Eli because they share a similar goofball, on the spectrum energy.  That's my theory.

[CRA]

3 minutes ago, Icege said:

Again, looking at the film clarifies why the 2/4 is better than the 3/5, especially when that 3/5 was due to WRs making opponents miss.

To clarify for those that are unaware: those stats are referring to Bryce Young and Will Levis. The game film showed how ridiculous it was to hyper focus on Levis' 3/5 for a TD because his completions were made wide open WRs that were running free vs. Bryce who made the more difficult throws AND was let down by a WR drop iirc.

I don't think it's intellectually honest to try and reframe things like this specific example wasn't already ejected into the sun with prejudice.

to clarify I am not referring to Will Levis.  Not knowingly.   I just made that up and tried to use a reasonable guesstimate of what else was done.  That sounded in the ballpark.  At one time I did look it all up and there were several teams that had much more successful days downfield.   If that happened to be Levis' actual numbers than it's more of a lucky coincidence.  If memory serves, it wasn't just Will Levis that brought the claim into question, it was SEVERAL teams had better days. 

and you are missing my entire point of the subjective nature of it all.  If PFF employee Doug watched Bryce's film and then used his same unique subjective vantage point to grade all 31 other starting QBs.  Then dumped into into a spread sheet, it would a subjective Doug take but at least it would be a level uniform subjectivity.   The grades are done by various people.  All watching and applying their own subjective view to a play.  Everyone isn't going to grade incompletions out the same.  Or completions.   So when you dump it all into a spread sheet and hit sort.....it's not actually a statement of fact as portrayed.  Which is why you sometimes get some head scratching stuff. 

I'm not reframing anything.   I don't think.  I just wasn't going to look it all back up so I was talking vaguely off the general issue I have with PFF and treating any random claim they make as the truth. 

[kungfoodude]

9 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

Jones got projected as the next Eli because they share a similar goofball, on the spectrum energy.  That's my theory.

Yeah and it was a tough draft for QB's overall, in hindsight. Top 3 are Kyler Murray, Jones and Gardner Minshew.

Not really blowing the doors off many with that class.

[PNW_PantherMan]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah and it was a tough draft for QB's overall, in hindsight. Top 3 are Kyler Murray, Jones and Gardner Minshew.

Not really blowing the doors off many with that class.

And 2/3 got monster 2nd contracts.  Wild.

[ForJimmy]

32 minutes ago, CRA said:

I didn't think underrated was the wildest statement.

The passing and offensive command he showed in week 18 against Atlanta was as good as any QB that has ever played for this franchise. 

I mean THAT part is wild.  Which plays into the overrated part.  End of regulation I don't think he even hit 200 yards passing.  I mean he had a very efficient day vs a weak defense.   As good as we have ever seen in Carolina?

Looks like he ran out of real estate.  He had 5 total TDs. As good as we have ever seen in Carolina? Looks like he is the only QB in our history with 3 passing and 2 rushing TDs and he tied a single game record of 5 TDs in one game with Cam and Beurlein.  Throw in his 73.4% completions and zero turnovers, literally the ONLY thing you could argue against statistically is total yardage which was only 275.  You may not agree with that statement (not 100% sure I do), but it's really not THAT wild...

[frankw]

49 minutes ago, CRA said:

I didn't think underrated was the wildest statement.

The passing and offensive command he showed in week 18 against Atlanta was as good as any QB that has ever played for this franchise. 

I mean THAT part is wild.  Which plays into the overrated part.  End of regulation I don't think he even hit 200 yards passing.  I mean he had a very efficient day vs a weak defense.   As good as we have ever seen in Carolina? 

 

He had 251 passing yards. 3 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns. All in all a very impressive game. Problem is I do not envision his rushing ability translating like that over the course of the upcoming season. Yeah it will be something to account for from time to time but one it's not sustainable and two you don't want to put his durability to the ultimate test against a motivated defender willing to take a penalty and a fine. And plus with our backfield. Two 1k yard rushers. That's what they're here for. Then we have a much improved WR room. That means Bryce has to elevate those passing numbers substantially. The fact of the matter is regardless of circumstances it did take him 23 games to surpass Kyle Allen's single season passing yardage from 13 games in 2019. And that is not a high bar by any means. Whatever QB tier Bryce ends up in from here amongst his peers this upcoming season when it's all said and done it will be with his arm.

Edited 23 hours ago by frankw

[Basbear]

36 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

Jones got projected as the next Eli because they share a similar goofball, on the spectrum energy.  That's my theory.

 

24 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah and it was a tough draft for QB's overall, in hindsight. Top 3 are Kyler Murray, Jones and Gardner Minshew.

Not really blowing the doors off many with that class.

 

I still remember how happy I was that gettlegut was not the GM once he picked Jones, that was a firing pick and well..... If not for the raiders drafting Clelin Ferrell, it was the biggest draft day mistake in the last 20 some years. 

[ForJimmy]

30 minutes ago, CRA said:

to clarify I am not referring to Will Levis.  Not knowingly.   I just made that up and tried to use a reasonable guesstimate of what else was done.  That sounded in the ballpark.  At one time I did look it all up and there were several teams that had much more successful days downfield.   If that happened to be Levis' actual numbers than it's more of a lucky coincidence.  If memory serves, it wasn't just Will Levis that brought the claim into question, it was SEVERAL teams had better days. 

and you are missing my entire point of the subjective nature of it all.  If PFF employee Doug watched Bryce's film and then used his same unique subjective vantage point to grade all 31 other starting QBs.  Then dumped into into a spread sheet, it would a subjective Doug take but at least it would be a level uniform subjectivity.   The grades are done by various people.  All watching and applying their own subjective view to a play.  Everyone isn't going to grade incompletions out the same.  Or completions.   So when you dump it all into a spread sheet and hit sort.....it's not actually a statement of fact as portrayed.  Which is why you sometimes get some head scratching stuff. 

I'm not reframing anything.   I don't think.  I just wasn't going to look it all back up so I was talking vaguely off the general issue I have with PFF and treating any random claim they make as the truth. 

I get it's subjective and I said "PFF rated him as" one of the top deep ball passers during that time, which is an accurate statement.  They are still a group of professionals that look at film and data in order to make their judgements/ratings.  These people whose data has been incorporated into a lot of teams' staffs view Bryce's deep throws as some of the best in the league during that stretch.  That tells me that he can probably throw a deep pass vs the Huddle's version of he is small and didn't do it his rookie year so he must not be able to.  That and literally seeing him do it just makes me feel he is more than capable of doing so.  

Do you think PFF is skewing their opinion to prop up a QB in a bottom tier franchise?  It's just another group's opinion and I feel is pretty respected around the league currently.  It's not the gospel truth or anything.  

[PNW_PantherMan]

1 minute ago, Basbear said:

 

 

I still remember how happy I was that gettlegut was not the GM once he picked Jones, that was a firing pick and well..... If not for the raiders drafting Clelin Ferrell, it was the biggest draft day mistake in the last 20 some years. 

The potential return on drafting a 1st round QB is so high, I'll never fault any team for picking one.  It's the giving them a 2nd contract when they aren't that great that's the problem.