The Dowdle Mirage - Play Calling Problems

[tukafan21]

I know full well this post is about to get poo'd into oblivion, but I think it's important to not look at final box scores when judging how a game went, especially in regards to play calling and game plans.

A friend of mine was giving me poo for how I can complain that we didn't throw to T-Mac more when "you won because you were just riding the hot hand with Dowdle."

So I just went and looked at the play by play and he had 162 of his 206 yards on just 6 of his 23 carries, which means he had 44 yard on his other 17 carries, or just 2.6 yards per carry.

That's not riding the hot hand over the course of a game, that's a player having a handful of big plays, partially due to some poor tackling, and thus having a final box score that jumps off the page.

This is why T-Mac's lack of targets in the 2nd half bothers me so much, because what the hell were we actually doing out there?  It means the overhwelming majority of our play calls ended up in a minimal gain or dink and dunks to our lesser pass catchers who combined for 125 yards on 22 targets, or a measly 5.7 yards per pass attempt.

So yes, full credit to Dowdle for having a career game, but his end box score doesn't tell the story about the entire game and the issues with out play calling.

Edited 1 hour ago by tukafan21

[jb2288]

Dowdle is not Chubba I wouldn’t look at it that way. Dowdle is more of a HR threat, he won’t will you 4 yards every play like Chuba does but he’s way more likely to break one which is exactly what he did and his game. 

[Jon Snow]

[tukafan21]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Look at me crazy all you want, but we had 6 plays that went for 162 yards but only 256 on our other 59 plays.

All I'm trying to say is this game is another perfect example of why we shouldn't look at wins or final box score yardage totals and absolve the coaching staff of a terrible game plan and/or in game play calling.

Those 6 plays were great, credit to Dowdle and the OL for making them, they're the reason we won the game.

But 6 plays out of 65 shouldn't absolve the team of really not looking that good on offense today, if you need 6 specific plays to say your offense looked good over the course of an entire game, then you did not have a good game offensively, sorry.

Edited 1 hour ago by tukafan21

[Lurk21]

When u notice we were playing from behind and teams don't care to go 2 safety... its a testament  to how well he did. We were down and Miami still dared Bryce with 1 safety high looks, meaning Rico ran into stacked boxes often. If Bryce hit more deep passes or at least spread the ball more like he did the 2nd half, the run game balance would be even more lethal. I'm ready to move on from Bryce but I've seen what a dose of the running game and solid defense can do. Add in special teams doing well again. It's up to the coaches but without those turnovers by Bryce early, we probably  blow this game  out the water. 

[Lurk21]

Just now, tukafan21 said:

Look at me crazy all you want, but we had 6 plays that went for 162 yards but only 256 on our other 59 plays.

All I'm trying to say is this game is another perfect example of why we shouldn't look at wins or final box score yardage totals and absolve the coaching staff of a terrible game plan and/or in game play calling.

Those 6 plays were great, credit to Dowdle and the OL for making them, they're the reason we won the game.

But 6 plays out of 65 shouldn't absolve the team of really not looking that good on offense today, if you need 6 specific plays to say your offense looked good over the course of an entire game, then you did not have a good game offensively, sorry.

I feel your logic but a ton was made out of Bryce putting us in predictable play calling early. 

[tukafan21]

4 minutes ago, jb2288 said:

Dowdle is not Chubba I wouldn’t look at it that way. Dowdle is more of a HR threat, he won’t will you 4 yards every play like Chuba does but he’s way more likely to break one which is exactly what he did and his game. 

Hence my point

A player who is more of a home run threat shouldn't be getting 23 carries as you're then banking your entire game on him breaking off multiple big runs.

Take away those two huge runs and we get completely blown out today.  I realize you can't just take away plays, but if 2 plays are the reason you won a game vs getting blown out, maybe you need to re-evaluate your game plans as that's not sustainable, especially against even halfway decent defenses.

[CRA]

Rico had 6 runs of 10+ yards.  Thats a rate of every 3-4th touch went for 10+.  That was a top 5 Panthers history performance 

AND he did that with a D only playing 20 yards and no threat of a pass.  Sure Adrian Peterson had a lot of nothing runs in his good days too

[TN05]

This is nonsense math. Of course if you remove all his good runs he looks less good. I'm sure if I removed his 6 worst runs he'd look better!

[csx]

Absolute absurdity  

[tukafan21]

3 minutes ago, Lurk21 said:

When u notice we were playing from behind and teams don't care to go 2 safety... its a testament  to how well he did. We were down and Miami still dared Bryce with 1 safety high looks, meaning Rico ran into stacked boxes often. If Bryce hit more deep passes or at least spread the ball more like he did the 2nd half, the run game balance would be even more lethal. I'm ready to move on from Bryce but I've seen what a dose of the running game and solid defense can do. Add in special teams doing well again. It's up to the coaches but without those turnovers by Bryce early, we probably  blow this game  out the water. 

It's not even about Bryce hitting those deeper passes, it's that we just don't even attempt them enough to make a defense alter their play calling.

Then you add in how infrequently he is able to make those passes on top of how little we attempt them, then yea, teams are never going to leave 2 high safeties against us as it's wasting a player for nothing.

Again... all why I can't stand our play calling and game plans.

[CRA]

2 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Hence my point

A player who is more of a home run threat shouldn't be getting 23 carries as you're then banking your entire game on him breaking off multiple big runs.

Take away those two huge runs and we get completely blown out today.  I realize you can't just take away plays, but if 2 plays are the reason you won a game vs getting blown out, maybe you need to re-evaluate your game plans as that's not sustainable, especially against even halfway decent defenses.

We don’t win today without Rico getting those carries.  We would been blown out if the game stayed in Young’s hands down 17

[RJK]

this is exhibit A of how analytics and fantasy sport stat dorks have ruined sports. That was a unimpressive 200 yard rushing game is a wild take 

[CRA]

1 minute ago, tukafan21 said:

It's not even about Bryce hitting those deeper passes, it's that we just don't even attempt them enough to make a defense alter their play calling.

Then you add in how infrequently he is able to make those passes on top of how little we attempt them, then yea, teams are never going to leave 2 high safeties against us as it's wasting a player for nothing.

Again... all why I can't stand our play calling and game plans.

BY can’t and won’t make the plays you want. Playcalling isn’t going to matter