Deep Ball in Cyclical Decline

[SmokinwithWilly]

18 minutes ago, strato said:

And there is always the good chance it won’t be a rocket and you can maybe recover in time to re engage. 
As I typed the they have respect it, the oddsmakers were in the back of my mind saying well… you know the statistics on that may say otherwise 

If it's even remotely true it's one hell of a tell. He immediately starts to roll out or scramble, stay honest. Standard drop back, no deep ball, red zone D. 

[Waldo]

The Panthers have all of the lack of deep passes without the threat of deep passes

[strato]

4 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

If it's even remotely true it's one hell of a tell. He immediately starts to roll out or scramble, stay honest. Standard drop back, no deep ball, red zone D. 

I think we had personnel tells as well. I like the 12 grouping for us right now because it doesn’t give away as much in that regard  IMO. 

[CRA]

1 hour ago, mav1234 said:

I still think the bigger issue is what you're describing in the 15-20 yard range vs 30 yard bombs. We are scheming guys open in that range and need to hit those shots more.

I have never really talked about 30 yards bombs.  But stretching a D beyond 20 matters and that's Young's biggest issue.  Because that opens up the intermediate stuff....and NFL defenses have cheated the intermediate stuff the entire time he has been in the league.  From week 1 of his rookie year through his 3rd season. 

[Captroop]

I thought this graphic from the NFL network previewing the Bills/Panthers on the subject is relevant:

Overall, the deep ball game is definitely diminishing. 

[PNW_PantherMan]

5 minutes ago, CRA said:

I have never really talked about 30 yards bombs.  But stretching a D beyond 20 matters and that's Young's biggest issue.  Because that opens up the intermediate stuff....and NFL defenses have cheated the intermediate stuff the entire time he has been in the league.  From week 1 of his rookie year through his 3rd season. 

Bryce is a pitcher that can only throw a change up.  Everybody knows whats coming.

[mav1234]

17 minutes ago, CRA said:

I have never really talked about 30 yards bombs.  But stretching a D beyond 20 matters and that's Young's biggest issue.  Because that opens up the intermediate stuff....and NFL defenses have cheated the intermediate stuff the entire time he has been in the league.  From week 1 of his rookie year through his 3rd season. 

Last year Bryce was basically as effective as the rest of the league going deep:

I would be curious what numbers folks are drawing from that claim he was substantially worse. 

His issue is basically that he is highly inconsistent 15-20 yards, especially this year. IMO those are the plays we need to keep defenses honest and even last year he wasn't great in that range.

[CRA]

19 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

Last year Bryce was basically as effective as the rest of the league going deep:

I would be curious what numbers folks are drawing from that claim he was substantially worse. 

His issue is basically that he is highly inconsistent 15-20 yards, especially this year. IMO those are the plays we need to keep defenses honest and even last year he wasn't great in that range.

Partial story telling.   Because it ignores actual production in those areas and how often you are doing it.  And that's where things really get out of whack w/ Bryce vs the league. 

Bryce wasn't really completing or throwing balls past 20 yards.  Which is why our passing O never really produces anything and it's a bottom tier pass attack.  Others, can share the efficiency.....and drastically out perform him in production. 

If you put up the production stats of Bryce vs the field  in those areas of the field....it would look MUCH different.  And that's why we say it. 

 

 

[jfra78]

4 hours ago, NAS said:

The threat is there. Execution requires more than QB, adequate protection, separation and timing.

We have all that just not the QB 

[strato]

31 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

Last year Bryce was basically as effective as the rest of the league going deep:

I would be curious what numbers folks are drawing from that claim he was substantially worse. 

His issue is basically that he is highly inconsistent 15-20 yards, especially this year. IMO those are the plays we need to keep defenses honest and even last year he wasn't great in that range.

Yeah I would still like to have the actual numbers of attempts inc complete int, that stuff in there. 

I am not surprised by anything on the right, except the 10-20 and the color. The difference between Bryce and League Avg in that square is greater than in others that got the color change. .
If I am seeing it right he is 13.8 below avg. 

Where not even a 10 point shortfall got him Red in other areas. 
I am horrible with charts though 

 

edit: also the number differential in the right yellow section makes because sense when you look at his typical passing charts you know where he wants to go. 

Edited 2 hours ago by strato

[CRA]

12 minutes ago, strato said:

Yeah I would still like to have the actual numbers of attempts inc complete int, that stuff in there. 

 

yeah, a lot of that has been addressed in old Bryce talks.  He barely has plays to those deeper sections.   It was broken down with the "best deep passer in the league"........when he had like 1 completion. 

Other dudes were going 3/4 w/ TDs those weeks.  And Bryce getting a completion was rare. 

[mrBdawg]

2 hours ago, CRA said:

No NFL D is trying to take the deep ball away from a QB with one career 30+ yard pass to a TE. 

50 yard touchdown to Thielen last year 

[CRA]

2 minutes ago, mrBdawg said:

50 yard touchdown to Thielen last year 

maybe, I noted that Next Gen was missing a couple games.  That's all I can go off of. 

What game was that.   

[PleaseCutStewart]

4 hours ago, Shotgun said:

Wow, Young really brought the league average down that far?