Forget trying to draft a QB in the early first round--it's stupid

[MHS831]

MHS getting ready to drop some major radical thinking on you all.  You might need some goggles.  Long read, but it should stimulate some brain cells.  Your ideas (your ideas, I dont care what you think about mine!) encouraged.  

All college QBs are developmental players.  With the transfer portal etc. players are hopping from program to program, often getting paid more than they would if drafted as juniors. I do not know if that is the reason and I only hypothesize about the fix, but it seems to me, this year there is a ton of developmental talent-risers, fallers, etc.  To prove my point, let's gander (yes, I used the word gander here without help from AI) at the early first round (top 10) draft picks over the last 10 years.  This should convince you to stop shopping at Oscar de la Renta and start checking out WalMart (if you can avoid being caught staring at a 250 lb woman wearing tights, a cut off wife-beater with a skull and crossbone naval ring) you can find some real bargains.  

Blake Bortles (3) 2014

Jameis Winston (1) 2015

Marcus Mariota (2) 2015

Jared Goff (1) 2016*

Carson Wentz (2) 2016

Mitch Trubisky (2) 2017

Pat Mahomes (10) 2017

Josh Rosen (10) 2018

Josh Allen (7) 2018

Sam Darnold (3) 2018*

Baker Mayfield (1) 2018*

Daniel Jones (6) 2019*

Kyler Murray (1) 2019

Joe Burrow (1) 2020

Tua Tagovailoa (5) 2020

Justin Herbert (6) 2020  

Trevor Lawrence (1) 2021

Zach Wilson (2) 2021

Trey Lance (3) 2021

Bryce Young (1) 2023

CJ Stroud (2) 2023  (borderline, but not a star yet)

Anthony Richardson (4) 2023  

(*not counting the late bloomers who are now playing well, but too late to benefit the team that drafted him, arguably)

In the past 10 years (2014-23--too early to tell on the rest), 7 QBs were drafted first overall, and only 1 has lived up to it with the team that drafted him, Joe Burrow.  And if you recall, Burrow transferred to LSU because Ohio State he was (on the depth chart) behind household names like:  JT Barrett, Dwayne Haskins, and even Cardale Jones. Aside from that, in 10 years only 1 QB in 7 has panned out as the first overall draft pick.  That is less than a 14% chance of the player being successful in your uniform.  However, Other top 10 first-rounders such as Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, have experienced some success after becoming traded, cut, or even being Journeymen for a while.  

In all, only 4 of the 22 (18%) of the QBs taken in the top 10 in the draft (between 2014-2023) are what I would consider a "franchise QB."  The others HURT their team in terms of salary and time.  The franchise will spend (in most cases) 2-3 years trying to develop a player who should make an immediate impact, based on draft status.

If you consider that there are also 4 players on this list who are experiencing success on other teams, you might say that if you pick one of the 8 of 22 (36% chance if you don't count Trevor Lawrence or CJ Stroud--10 of 22-45%- if you do) who will experience first-round pick level success in the NFL at some point in their careers, you can conclude that your odds of drafting a starting-caliber NFL QB in round one is less than 50%, and of that group, the odds are just as likely they will become your franchise QB as they will the franchise QB for another team.

In essence, you either hit the jackpot (18% chance of doing so) or you draft a bust (55% chance) or you (even worse) draft a player and become the farm system for another team that will benefit from the development. 

MHS's Better way

A better way to find your franchise QB is to do the following:

1.  Draft a QB when you don't really need one at the moment (desperation).  Green Bay knows this--Farve was on top of his game when they took Rogers, Rogers was on top of his game when they took Love.  

2. 53% of the current NFL QBs were NOT drafted in the top 10.  12.5% of the STARTING QBs were not drafted in the first round--that percentage is nearly as high as the success rate (18%) for top 10 QBs.  We are talking about the most important position in sports.  If your QB is not shining, do not put all your eggs into one basket and waste 3 years trying to develop him.  Personally, I think you draft one (with solid measurables) when that player is on your board--even if you don't think you need a starting qb.  

3.  Trade back a bit in the first round and get your QB, adding a second or third rounder, to be used on a WR or OL.  The odds are greater that the QB will succeed if he has weapons and protection.  Sounds crazy, but GMs drafting a QB in round one are acting in desperation.  (Anthony Richardson 4th pick overall?  Really?) 

About this draft (2026)

Personally, I think the top of this draft is "Red Flag City," a term I am getting a copyright for because it is awesome.  However, we need to develop a QB to complete only when he is ready; let him play behind the starter for a year or two.  Instead, we have some 40 year old Ginger milking the salary cap until his grandchildren are grown.  Bring in competition.  Look for players with solid mechanics, not stats.  Any qb should succeed at Ohio State.  WR heaven, OL get drafted, solid TE history.  Instead, look at feet, his ability to read the defense (percentage of plays where he throws to the best option--completion percentage is secondary), release time, leadership qualities (only Alphas need apply), his size, etc.   In today's NFL, however, the ability to make the best read an release the ball quickly are essential to success.  

I might even de-emphasize running ability and athleticism if the reading and release times are not elite.  Why?  Running QBs tend to hide those deficiencies and they run instead of waiting that extra .3 seconds.  Slow reading means the QB is not anticipating the WR getting open. It means their feet switch to run mode subconsciously even before they go through the progressions.  There are a few, such as Lamar Jackson, who have developed their processing speeds and release, but it took time.  In my view, good WRs, TEs, and OL are essential for any QB, and no young QB should be expected to succeed if the GM has not.

The 2026 NFL Draft

At this point, I am amazed how much the bigger names entering the season have fallen and how the unknowns from 2024 have staked their claims.  

I see top 10 picks as follows (not that they are worthy, but desperate times and desperate men do desperate things during times of desperation):

1. Ty Simpson, Alabama:  The most NFL-ready QB, in my opinion.  Watch him read the defense.

2. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana:  In the right system (West Coast) he could prosper.  If the right team is available, he will be the second QB taken.

3. LeNorris Sellers, THE University of South Carolina:  I am higher on Sellers than some because he has the skill set to be great.  SC may not have been the place to showcase his talent.  By draft night, I think he rises into the top 10, around 7th overall

4.  Dante Moore, Oregon:  Some will have him at #1 or #2, but he has some issues and I am not fond of drafting QBs from the West coast conferences.

After this run on QBs, there might be crickets for a while.  If the Panthers are picking #12 or so (as I predict), they should trade back and get a developmental QB.

But look at these names that have fallen--is anything worth developing there?

• Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
• Cade Klubnik, Clemson
• Sam Leavitt, Arizona State
• John Mateer, Oklahoma
• Drew Allar, Penn State
• Carson Beck, Miami
• Taylor Green, Arkansas

However, if I am the Panthers GM, I think I would draft the best LB in round 1 (as of Nov 16) and take one of the fallen players who meet the criteria mentioned earlier.  I do not do so with the intention of starting the player, but developing the player.  If you see potential, you build your offensive philosophy, your offense, and your playbook for the future around that skill set.  

The player I would like to see us research extensively (based on what I know about him)?  Brendon Soresby, Cincinnati.  Stay tuned.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited Sunday at 02:55 PM by MHS831

[PappyMay]

I agree with going another position round 1 this year. Also I like Sorsby. Josh Hoover as wells as mid rounders. I just wonder if some big college programs can out bid the contract of a mid round pick.  Going to Bama to replace Simpson or Moore at Oregon could be more lucrative sadly.

[SOJA]

I think we should hope someone like Allar or Nuss falls to like the fourth. Take them and hope the talent develops them into a competent back up/competitive starter. That way if Bryce doesn't work out you have a plan B. If Bryce does you have a valuable trade piece 

[AU-panther]

You seem to be missing some stats.  You state that in the past 10 years only 18% of 1st rounders become franchise QBs.

We need to know how many QBs have been drafted in the next 6 rounds and what percentage of those have become franchise QBs?

 

[MHS831]

12 hours ago, AU-panther said:

You seem to be missing some stats.  You state that in the past 10 years only 18% of 1st rounders become franchise QBs.

We need to know how many QBs have been drafted in the next 6 rounds and what percentage of those have become franchise QBs?

 

OK, fair enough--however, since my point was that drafting a QB in the top 10 is stupid, if you consider the players who were not drafted in the top 10 or those who WERE drafted in the top 10 and did not secure starting positions with the team that drafted them, you should see the point.  Is it smart to draft a QB in the top 10 when only 4 are still starting for the team that drafted them.  Next, consider that half of that number, 2, were drafted outside the first round.  Next, there are 4 (Goff, Mayfield, Jones, and Darnold) who are starting on other teams after busting.   That number could increase as Arizona seems ready to move on from Murray, Miami is not sold on Tua, and jacksonville is still waiting for Trevor to start looking elite.  Bryce?  

So to answer your question, there are MANY more QBs in the NFL who have busted and become starters on other rosters, were drafted after day 1, or are still on the cusp than the four who have become elite.  I thought that point was made. 

[Khyber53]

I think we need to draft offensive and defensive leaders in 2026.

Picking around the middle of the pack, we should go with the best MLB in the draft. Get someone who can run the defense and hold his teammates accountable. Someone who can learn the defensive playbook quickly and have it built around them (and who knows if we will have the same DC next season).

Then, grab a developmental QB in the second round. There are going to be good ones there and I agree that they need time to learn the NFL game, especially considering the whirlwind of coaching changes many of them see (or pursue) with the transfer portal. Maybe even specifically look for a QB that has spent their entire college career at one school (which might show how valuable they were to their own coach). 

But if those two are in doubt, just grab O-line or Edge. That's the classic easy choice.