Regression next season

[electro's horse]

12 minutes ago, UnluckyforSome said:

Every season is different, but, if they make the playoffs as the division winner, we will have a 1st place schedule next season as well.

Placing really doesn’t mean much. It only changes 3 games, and team quality is so variable there’s not much predictive value to it.

as far as regression panthers have to be a huge candidate just based on their record in 3 score games. That’s not sustainable, just look at the chiefs this season.

on a long enough timeline everything regresses to the mean. 

[UnluckyforSome]

5 minutes ago, electro's horse said:

Placing really doesn’t mean much. It only changes 3 games, and team quality is so variable there’s not much predictive value to it.

as far as regression panthers have to be a huge candidate just based on their record in 3 score games. That’s not sustainable, just look at the chiefs this season.

on a long enough timeline everything regresses to the mean. 

It doesn't matter much. But it does matter. Additionally, it really feels like 1st place schedules mean more prime time games, as well as short week games. We will also have some opportunities for cold weather games. That mock-up looks like it is a very possible 4-win Panther season of miserableness.

 

[Carolina Cajun]

Well lets look at schedule.  Next year, normal division opponents at home and away, Bears, lions, Ravens, and Bengals at home, Packers, Vikings, Steelers, and Browns away are set in stone.  We match with NFC West (home), AFC West (home), and NFC East(Away).  If we win the division Those opponents would be Seattle, Denver, and Eagles.  If we lose the Division those opponents would be 9ers or Rams, Chargers, and Cowboys.

I think we can go 3-3 in division, I can very easily see us only win 3 or 4 OOC games.  Also remember, by and large, this is one of the healthiest seasons I can remember in recent memory, thats not likely to be that way next season, however it depends on the moves that Morgan does this offseason and what kind of draft we have.  We Nail another draft, anythings possible.

[PleaseCutStewart]

I agree - 8-9 teams don't usually have a -69 point differential like we do...

 

I honestly think we were a 5-12 caliber team this year that managed to get lucky and win a few games in the last minute (mostly because the team we were playing shot themselves in the foot nonstop)

[Carolina Cajun]

3 minutes ago, UnluckyforSome said:

It doesn't matter much. But it does matter. Additionally, it really feels like 1st place schedules mean more prime time games, as well as short week games. We will also have some opportunities for cold weather games. That mock-up looks like it is a very possible 4-win Panther season of miserableness.

 

thats IF we win the division.  If we lose itll be 49ers/Rams, Chargers, Cowboys.  Cowboys seem like a perpetual shitshow, so dunno.  It absolutely could be miserable.

[flagfootballcoach28]

If BY is our QB, that gives us a  low ceiling regardless, but to avoid regression here's a few things that need to happen imo. 

Pass rush- We have to find a legit pass rusher that can consistently get to the QB. We also need another guy that has the athleticism to get the QB down when the play breaks down. We made average athletic QB's look way too mobile when the play breaks down all season. Aka Baker last evening. 

Possible FA's:Tre Hendrickson, Arden Key, Malcom Koonce, Joseph Assai, K'Lavon Chaisson. Or if a pass rusher falls in the draft 

LB- Enough is enough. We need to revamp our LB room via FA or draft. It's a joke. 

Possible FA: Quay Walker, Devin Lloyd, Devin Bush, Quincy Williams. Sonny Styles, CJ Allen, Anthony Hill Jr

CB, FS, TE, RB, WR O-line depth are other areas we need to improve in. This team desperately needs a few more amazing draft classes. 

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

I'm expecting next season to be the last of Bryce and Canales, unless the defense becomes elite with the pieces added in the offseason and can carry these two clowns to victory. Don't see that happening.

Edited Sunday at 08:04 PM by Sean Payton's Vicodin

[mrcompletely11]

8 minutes ago, flagfootballcoach28 said:

If BY is our QB, that gives us a  low ceiling regardless, but to avoid regression here's a few things that need to happen imo. 

Pass rush- We have to find a legit pass rusher that can consistently get to the QB. We also need another guy that has the athleticism to get the QB down when the play breaks down. We made average athletic QB's look way too mobile when the play breaks down all season. Aka Baker last evening. 

Possible FA's:Tre Hendrickson, Arden Key, Malcom Koonce, Joseph Assai, K'Lavon Chaisson. Or if a pass rusher falls in the draft 

LB- Enough is enough. We need to revamp our LB room via FA or draft. It's a joke. 

Possible FA: Quay Walker, Devin Lloyd, Devin Bush, Quincy Williams. Sonny Styles, CJ Allen, Anthony Hill Jr

CB, FS, TE, RB, WR O-line depth are other areas we need to improve in. This team desperately needs a few more amazing draft classes. 

Trey wants 30+ per.   Hell no

[hepcat]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, the division should be tougher next year if Shough continues progressing, Mayfield gets healthy, and the Falcons play Cousins.

The only team that worries me is New Orleans. Shough seems like the real deal and they’re building an offense that moves the ball regardless of the talent around him. That’s scary. 

[PantherChris]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Highly likely. Look at the Chiefs. Won a lot of close ones last year, lost a lot of close ones this year. That's usually the way it goes. The law of averages evens itself out over time.

Big difference between 10-0 and 7-3, two more losses is regression to the mean, the cheifs needed 5.....

 

What kind of regression we see depends on the moves we make imo....

 

If we bolster the defense some more, who knows.

[PantherChris]

19 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Trey wants 30+ per.   Hell no

Yeah you dont pay a soon to be 32 year old coming off a 4 sack season 30m +

[flagfootballcoach28]

32 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Trey wants 30+ per.   Hell no

I don’t want him either, but there’s been reports the Panthers were interested in Trey Hendrickson at one point.. It wasn’t a list of who I prefer, but who I could see Dan Morgan going after. 

[Donald LaFell]

I think we’ll be a 500 team again but with better talent. Looking forward to better talent