Bryce Young NFL NGS Throwing Breakdown '23-'25

[kungfoodude]

Completed this spreadsheet I had made a few weeks ago to compare various Bryce throwing zone performances. Analyze away.

2023

2024

2025

[kungfoodude]

It does appear this was the least aggressive Bryce ever with greater than 10 yard attempts.

2023: 33.05%

2024: 40.46%

2025: 32.43%

[Khyber53]

The stats speak volumes but about what, though? And that's the difficulty.  That first season, he's both a rookie and under a different HC and offensive coordinator. Second and third years, you've got changes in personnel on the o-line (generally an upgrade), the emergence of a running game and receivers out of the backfield, and the additions of Coker and T-Mac. The story is still out on TE if there have been any improvements.

Any of those could be excuses or explanations for Bryce's performance or lack thereof. 

What it can't quantify, however, is how play calling has made a difference. Without going over the All-22 views on every play AND knowing what the playcall was with main target, secondary receiver and check down, we have no way of knowing what was expected and how he did within it. I do know that our offensive concepts have shown a relative inability to scheme players open on a regular basis and we seem to semi-regularly have two receivers in the same space, whether by design or bad coaching, which makes the job easier for the defense. 

I do know this, Bryce doesn't seem to show the killer instinct to will a play into happening on a regular basis. He's shown a few places where he does have ice water in his veins, but it has generally been when the game is on the line and our backs are to the wall, but there's still a chance. He seems to thrive in those situations. Sadly, good QBs can operate like that starting in the first quarter and carry it through.

What he doesn't have, though, is either Cam's ability to just grab a play up as it breaks down, throw the team on his back and exert his will on the opposing team. He also doesn't have the leadership ability that Jake showed back in the day where he'd fire up everyone around him until they'd all run through a brick wall together when needed. Bryce seems to live in a very unsatisfying area in between and one without emotion or fire.

And as to coaching, I have no idea on Dave Canales. He's building something here, the team as a whole is getting better and we are developing some of our own players into bright spots or stars even. And that's important, but a team lives or dies by the QB/HC situation if they are on their way up. And our play calling seems lackluster. I think he needs to relinquish play calling duties and instead manage the game, all phases and coach the players on the sidelines as needed. Wearing two hats at this early stage in his career isn't working as well as he'd like it. 

TL;DR version: Sucks to say it, but can't fully judge Bryce while under current HC, can't fully judge HC while he's handcuffed to Bryce. (And the Andy Dalton experiment this season sure didn't add any useful data.)

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

The stats speak volumes but about what, though? And that's the difficulty.  That first season, he's both a rookie and under a different HC and offensive coordinator. Second and third years, you've got changes in personnel on the o-line (generally an upgrade), the emergence of a running game and receivers out of the backfield, and the additions of Coker and T-Mac. The story is still out on TE if there have been any improvements.

Any of those could be excuses or explanations for Bryce's performance or lack thereof. 

What it can't quantify, however, is how play calling has made a difference. Without going over the All-22 views on every play AND knowing what the playcall was with main target, secondary receiver and check down, we have no way of knowing what was expected and how he did within it. I do know that our offensive concepts have shown a relative inability to scheme players open on a regular basis and we seem to semi-regularly have two receivers in the same space, whether by design or bad coaching, which makes the job easier for the defense. 

I do know this, Bryce doesn't seem to show the killer instinct to will a play into happening on a regular basis. He's shown a few places where he does have ice water in his veins, but it has generally been when the game is on the line and our backs are to the wall, but there's still a chance. He seems to thrive in those situations. Sadly, good QBs can operate like that starting in the first quarter and carry it through.

What he doesn't have, though, is either Cam's ability to just grab a play up as it breaks down, throw the team on his back and exert his will on the opposing team. He also doesn't have the leadership ability that Jake showed back in the day where he'd fire up everyone around him until they'd all run through a brick wall together when needed. Bryce seems to live in a very unsatisfying area in between and one without emotion or fire.

And as to coaching, I have no idea on Dave Canales. He's building something here, the team as a whole is getting better and we are developing some of our own players into bright spots or stars even. And that's important, but a team lives or dies by the QB/HC situation if they are on their way up. And our play calling seems lackluster. I think he needs to relinquish play calling duties and instead manage the game, all phases and coach the players on the sidelines as needed. Wearing two hats at this early stage in his career isn't working as well as he'd like it. 

TL;DR version: Sucks to say it, but can't fully judge Bryce while under current HC, can't fully judge HC while he's handcuffed to Bryce. (And the Andy Dalton experiment this season sure didn't add any useful data.)

I have been on record many times saying both Bryce and Canales suck. I think they would suck independent of each other, as well. 

I also think the stats don't really show much evolution of Bryce, which is generally true with the "eye test" as well. Interestingly, the one good stretch most give him credit for(2024 Bryce post benching) was when he was the most aggressive throwing down the field and had good results. IMO, that goes back to his confidence. He is never able to maintain it at all. I know early on the commentator's ooh and aahed over his composure, etc. Well, I don't think that was ever really true. I think he constantly struggles with confidence.

[uncfan888]

[Jay Roosevelt]

32 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

It does appear this was the least aggressive Bryce ever with greater than 10 yard attempts.

2023: 33.05%

2024: 40.46%

2025: 32.43%

Perhaps, but I'm guessing he completed more of these attempts this season for more yards than the previous two seasons. But I could be wrong. I'd be interested to see some stats on that.

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, uncfan888 said:

Interesting Tidbits

- 2025 marked a career low in 20+ yard attempts downfield, at 2.13/GM.

- In his career, a whopping 60%(18 total) of Bryce's INT's are in the intermediate(10-20 yard) range, making that overwhelmingly the worst performing area of his career.

- A massive 67.57% of Bryce's season attempts were 10 yards or less.

- 

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Jay Roosevelt said:

Perhaps, but I'm guessing he completed more of these attempts this season for more yards than the previous two seasons. But I could be wrong. I'd be interested to see some stats on that.

Well....I mean....100% of those stats are in the OP.

[CRA]

35 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

It does appear this was the least aggressive Bryce ever with greater than 10 yard attempts.

I would say this season, Bryce is being best managed to not lose us games.   Which is sort of how the Teb0w time presents itself late in the games.  

We have sort of talked about it all year that Canales calls the games how he has to call the games.  So, that's why you ultimately see......less 10+ throws than ever before.  And his strategy is to pair that with some extremely favoring scenarios to actually throw it downfield (often when a D is playing short yardage vs Bryce that has resulted into the 20+ ones)

[LinvilleGorge]

Bryce Young at QB handcuffs your offense. It just is what it is. That's not gonna change. He's just very physically limited at the NFL level. The ceiling is very low.

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, CRA said:

I would say this season, Bryce is being best managed to not lose us games.   Which is sort of how the Teb0w time presents itself late in the games.  

We have sort of talked about it all year that Canales calls the games how he has to call the games.  So, that's why you ultimately see......less 10+ throws than ever before.  And his strategy is to pair that with some extremely favoring scenarios to actually throw it downfield (often when a D is playing short yardage vs Bryce that has resulted into the 20+ ones)

I don't think that is completely the playcalling. Bryce is choosing to dump it short more often than not. If you think about that, anecdotally that is accurate. How many times do we see him not hitting an intermediate or deeper option that is available and instead choosing to throw short?

[Waldo]

Makes me miss Teddy

[Moonraker]

Regardless of stats or the reason why, our inability or unwillingness to attack the middle of the field is the reason our offense is so stale most of the time (in my opinion). We are so limited in options that it makes us predictable. We are always throwing boundary passes with no real opportunity for YAC.

[PleaseCutStewart]

52 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Completed this spreadsheet I had made a few weeks ago to compare various Bryce throwing zone performances. Analyze away.

2023

2024

2025

Usually the most important throws a QB needs to make is the intermediate throws (10-20). Bryce is apparently very awful at throwing to routes that fall in that range...

Just crazy that 2/3 of Bryce's throws have been less than 10 yards this year. That might be worse than checkdown Teddy when we had him

Edited yesterday at 04:22 PM by PleaseCutStewart