Bryce Young NFL NGS Throwing Breakdown '23-'25

[Pejorative Miscreant]

I think the problem is we have a good guy but a very not so good/ actually quite sucky QB in Bryce Young. 
 

I wasted almost all of my “hope” chips on Bryce and don’t have many left for DC at this point. I think the only thing that can potentially save his imminent failure is to get an OC and relinquish play calling duties. 
oh, and find a new QB. 

Edited yesterday at 04:58 PM by Pejorative Miscreant

[Khyber53]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

I have been on record many times saying both Bryce and Canales suck. I think they would suck independent of each other, as well. 

I also think the stats don't really show much evolution of Bryce, which is generally true with the "eye test" as well. Interestingly, the one good stretch most give him credit for(2024 Bryce post benching) was when he was the most aggressive throwing down the field and had good results. IMO, that goes back to his confidence. He is never able to maintain it at all. I know early on the commentator's ooh and aahed over his composure, etc. Well, I don't think that was ever really true. I think he constantly struggles with confidence.

Here's the thing, you may very well be right that both coach and QB suck here. And that's maddening. They are so tied together now that who knows for certain. And there's a good shot that these two just are incapable of getting the best out of each other, but they can limp along hitting on a couple of high spots just enough to make it muddy on evaluating.

Or one could suck and the other could thrive untethered to the other guy. Hell if I know. Just reminds me of that scene from O, Brother where art Thou? Where they clamber into the moving box car, except for the last one and their leg chains just keep dragging them back out one by one... thwap, yoink, thwap.

And Bryce, yeah, he has composure. Too much composure. He needs some fire. Cool is good but you need fire to win games. We have developed grit as a team since Canales came aboard, but we just lack spark. 

The cat needs to roar. 

Edit to add: Bryce reminds me a lot of Joey Harrington from back in the day. Had the pedigree and college credentials, smart, smart guy. Great piano player even. Got him on the field and he just couldn't get that traction to make him competitive, even with one of the greatest receivers of all time out there with him. Ice water in his veins, but no fire in his heart. 

Edited yesterday at 05:04 PM by Khyber53

[bandu]

so i look at this & think Bryce Young's physical limitations / arm strength or lack of .yes he can make all the throws but not effectively. the deeper passes 20 +'yds. that's more about having the arm strength to throw the ball for distance  & those intermediate passes 10 to 20 yds. require alot more velocity/speed on the ball in order to beat the defenders in tight spaces ..just saying 

Edited yesterday at 05:07 PM by bandu

[cranky]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

I have been on record many times saying both Bryce and Canales suck. I think they would suck independent of each other, as well. 

I also think the stats don't really show much evolution of Bryce, which is generally true with the "eye test" as well. Interestingly, the one good stretch most give him credit for(2024 Bryce post benching) was when he was the most aggressive throwing down the field and had good results. IMO, that goes back to his confidence. He is never able to maintain it at all. I know early on the commentator's ooh and aahed over his composure, etc. Well, I don't think that was ever really true. I think he constantly struggles with confidence.

Adam Thielen averaged 12.8 yds/rec, 61.5 yds/game and had a catch rate of 77.4% in 24. Tmac has played well and will be a stud but he is just a rookie and while he has good numbers, his catch rate is only 57.4%. Losing Thielen was more of a loss than most people realize. Young's numbers should improve with TMac and Coker getting experience but that will take time which most people around here do not have so he may be gone before that ever happens.

[mrcompletely11]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

Interesting Tidbits- A massive 67.57% of Bryce's season attempts were 10 yards or less.

- 

do you know what the league average is?

[kungfoodude]

32 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

Intermediate has been a notable problem in his game, particularly at the perimeter against zone. His clean pocket passes don’t have the velocity you want so DBs can play off and catch back up for the pick (2 of his last 3 ints from that very instance).

A pro-QB needs to be able to hit those passes quickly, with enough velocity to get the guy open in space. He can’t hit it quick enough to a guy to give him space against zone. So you really can’t play the diverse short/intermediate game where he methodically takes a team down field consistently.

Now, I’m sure there are some instances where he’s managed; but most of the time those perimeter intermediate are either wildly inaccurate or floaters. The field sideline-to-sideline just feels so huge with him playing. 

He can surprisingly work the middle of the field okay because he’ll move in pocket (or out) until the sight lane is found — but his tools don’t allow him to hit a clean 5 step drop with zip to an X or flanker in that range. It’s why some of his best work has been post 2 seconds hitting a crosser to Coker this year or Tmac on a deeper mesh.  

This is also why I absolutely do not see the Brees comps as much as people like to make parallels.

It's because his footwork and base is so atrocious(still). Until he cleans that up, he will never be making those throws with the anticipation and velocity necessary. I don't expect that will ever happen.

[frankw]

This all lines up with his limitations.

I'm guessing the usual characters will ignore these damning deep dive statistics and continue to hone in on obscure metrics.

[kungfoodude]

26 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

Here's the thing, you may very well be right that both coach and QB suck here. And that's maddening. They are so tied together now that who knows for certain. And there's a good shot that these two just are incapable of getting the best out of each other, but they can limp along hitting on a couple of high spots just enough to make it muddy on evaluating.

Or one could suck and the other could thrive untethered to the other guy. Hell if I know. Just reminds me of that scene from O, Brother where art Thou? Where they clamber into the moving box car, except for the last one and their leg chains just keep dragging them back out one by one... thwap, yoink, thwap.

And Bryce, yeah, he has composure. Too much composure. He needs some fire. Cool is good but you need fire to win games. We have developed grit as a team since Canales came aboard, but we just lack spark. 

The cat needs to roar. 

Edit to add: Bryce reminds me a lot of Joey Harrington from back in the day. Had the pedigree and college credentials, smart, smart guy. Great piano player even. Got him on the field and he just couldn't get that traction to make him competitive, even with one of the greatest receivers of all time out there with him. Ice water in his veins, but no fire in his heart. 

I disagree with the composure aspect because he freaks out so frequently and refuses to step up into the pocket so often when that is the correct play. I do agree on the lack of fire. An overwhelming majority of Bryce's flaws are things he simply refuses to fix. His footwork is fuging atrocious. That's on him. 

IMO, Bryce will be languishing as a backup for 1-3 years before he is out of the NFL once he leaves the Panthers. I think his NFL career is almost as close to the end as it is the beginning.

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, frankw said:

This all lines up with his limitations.

I'm guessing the usual characters will ignore these damning deep dive statistics and continue to hone in on obscure metrics.

"Wait until he gets more weapons, he only needs a tight end, better line and a speed wr then you will see"

 

just look up 5 posts and you see someone making the excuse of losing AT

[kungfoodude]

13 minutes ago, cranky said:

Adam Thielen averaged 12.8 yds/rec, 61.5 yds/game and had a catch rate of 77.4% in 24. Tmac has played well and will be a stud but he is just a rookie and while he has good numbers, his catch rate is only 57.4%. Losing Thielen was more of a loss than most people realize. Young's numbers should improve with TMac and Coker getting experience but that will take time which most people around here do not have so he may be gone before that ever happens.

AT was injured for a good chunk of that home stretch that Bryce was playing well. I don't think his success really has very much to do with WR's at all. DC deserves some blame for a bad offense but the majority of his lack of development is squarely his fault.

[kungfoodude]

14 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

do you know what the league average is?

No. That would take a massive amount of data I would need to crunch. If the dumb NFL would show a little more of the "behind the scenes" I could potentially subscribe to NFL Pro and get access to way more data from NFL NGS and maybe even potentially feed those datasets into AI(this is an ACTUAL use for AI) and have them sort them for me. Outside of that, it would take probably a week or so for me to manually do all the data entry for a season to even find out. And even then, I am only going to get partial data because the Game Center just shows the QB with the higher percentage of the playing time. I would be missing a small but significant chunk for in game substitutions/injuries/changes/etc.

Edited yesterday at 05:37 PM by kungfoodude

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, Moonraker said:

Regardless of stats or the reason why, our inability or unwillingness to attack the middle of the field is the reason our offense is so stale most of the time (in my opinion). We are so limited in options that it makes us predictable. We are always throwing boundary passes with no real opportunity for YAC.

Bryce struggles to see over the line. It makes those short over the middle YAC throws that a lot of other NFL teams use as staples of their offense difficult to execute for us.

 

[kungfoodude]

5 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Bryce struggles to see over the line. It makes those short over the middle YAC throws that a lot of other NFL teams use as staples of their offense difficult to execute for us.

 

I think it's less height related and more that he remains off schedule the bulk of every game. He has opportunities galore, he just doesn't take them. It's mechanics, it's confidence, it's everything. 

He.

fuging.

Stinks.

[NAS]

analysis paralysis - just bring in some real competition for next year