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Which way are we headed?


redbuddha

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9-7 or 13-3

It just seems that NFC teams that peak to early actually reduce their chances to do well in the playoffs. I mention this because it seems the road to the NFC championship seems to be much harder than it is in the AFC.

Eli Manning and the Giants barely made the playoffs, and are in the super bowl. Happened previous year with Rodgers and Green Bay 10-6.

But NFC Teams with stellar records San Fran 13-3, Green Bay this year 15-1, and New Orleans 13-3, and Atlanta 13-3 the previous year are all at home.

Even looking at Pro bowl QB voting. There were several legitimate options on the NFC side. Romo, Stafford, Cutler (before injury), and this doesn't even include Vick.

Also only 2 of the top 5 rushing teams even made the playoffs. The New York Giants are ranked 32nd in rushing and the Patriots are ranked 20th.

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I don't know if it is teams peaking too early, or teams that can step up the execution when the playoffs commence. If they struggled on one side of the ball through the season, that unit performs well while the side that got them there, keeps running at a high level. I don't know if the regular season determined how the playoffs will unfold so much as the determining the path you have to navigate along the weay. Sure a great regular season record and winning your division ensures home field advantage, but that doesn't guarantee success. Just ask Green Bay and San Francisco how that worked out. They had the table set to make a long playoff run but were ambushed by a Giants team that is playing very well particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Then again, the Patriots don't look like they gave the most yards in the regular season. Then again, when has total yards ever mattered.

The only stats that matter which are points for and points against both look excellent for New England and the Giants. On defense the Giants are giving up 13 points a game while the Patriots are giving up only 15 points a game. The Giants are the first and the Patriots are tied for the second most stingiest defenses. The offenses are 2nd (Patriots,34 pts) and 4th (Giants 27 pts). But what is excellent is the differential which is +19 for the Patriots and +14 for the Giants.

In the regular season the Patriots were 15th in points allowed surrendering 21.4 pts while New York was a Pantheresque 25th giving up 25 points a game (we were 27th at 26.4 PPG). Look how both defenses have generated turnovers and shut down opponents in the redzone. The Giants defense is an amazing 12 points a game better than they were in the regular season. They shut down Green Bay and San Francisco on the road and have shown they are one hell of a road team in the NFL. Meanwhile New England has delivered on both sides of the ball as well.

I think what is clear is that defense will win the Superbowl like it always does. The team that surrenders the fewest points is going to win. Both offenses are potent but like in 2007, it will be the team that keeps it close and scores last will win. A late turnover that the the winning team cashes into points in the last 3 minutes of the game. Who can predict though. For all I know one team will dominate the other on defense. I doubt we have a shootout, but what do I know??

So what determines who plays for the Superbowl? The teams best on defense who have a large differential between points scored and points surrendered. Teams that can play well on the road which it certainly is for both teams in the Superbowl. Not during the regular season but during the playoffs.

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I think that even though the giants are ranked 32nd in the run game you also have to realize that their #1 Rb was out for 4 games and probably wasn't 100% for the last few games and Jacobs missed 2 other games so the Giants pretty much played atleast 6 games without their #1 or #2 Rb . I think that now the giants run game is healthy and is 100%. I also feel that sometimes you have to overlook regular season stats especially if a team missed some key players or if they lost some key players that are being replaced by rookies that take a while to learn the spot.

Look at the Packers last year who lost a lot of players and had to replace their starters with less experienced players who took a while to learn to play their position but learned at the right time that won them the Superbowl.

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