Drive Stats (NFL Gamebooks) CAR vs. SF. Make 'em drive the field.

[dos poptarts]

Update: Here is the skydrive link to the excel file. Skydrive's webapp should allow everyone to open and view the file. http://sdrv.ms/17ELwgm

 

 

This is from my own data mining from the official NFL Gamebooks.

Last week it was the defenses that were wildly different between ATL and CAR. This week the slight edge goes to the Panther offense.

 

Starting with Defense:

Thru Week 9 both defenses are actually very similar.

Panthers defense is allowing scores on 26% of all drives.

49ers are nearly identical at 27%. 

 

If we break it down we do see a difference that could make the difference this Sunday.

Panthers (13 FGs, 9 TDs, 84 drives) - allowing TDs only 11% of the time.

49ers (8 FGs, 17 TDs, 93 drives) - allowing TDs 18% of the time.

Roughly, the Panthers will give up 1 TD per game, 49ers almost 2.

 

Both teams stumbled the first few games....so by looking at winning streaks only.....

Panthers D (6 FGs, 4 TDs, 42 drives).....23%

49ers D (4 FGs, 7 TDs, 59 drives) ..... 18% (lower is better)

Both teams have allowed garbage time scores once the games were out of hand so both defenses are very good and beat down average NFL offenses. 

 

 

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But the 49er offense is NOT the Panther offense. Will expand on this in moment.....

At a glance, Panthers edge out the 49ers but not by much.

Panthers are scoring on 43% of all drives. (12 FGs, 22 TDs, 80 drives) Ranked 6th.

49ers are scoring on 36%. (9 FGs, 24 TDs, 91 drives) Ranked 15th.

 

Winning streaks only:

Panthers (6 FGs, 14 TDs, 37 drives) 54%

49ers (6 FGs, 19 TDs, 58 drives) 43%

 

Again, if both teams wanted to throttle the other team, these numbers could be even higher as both teams had large leads and started to kill clock.

 

The disparity comes when an offense needs to drive 80 yards to score.

49ers led off in Week 1 at a fantastic 80%. (4 scoring drives out of 5 of 80 yards or longer) against Green Bay. Since then they have fallen quite a bit and not been greater than 33% in any game.

Currently @ 28% (2 FGs, 10 TDs, 43 drives)

On the flip side..

Panthers started week 1, at 17% and have climbed near the top of the NFL since. Currently at 39%, ranked 4th (4 FGs, 9 TDs, 33 drives), tied with Chicago.

 

Given a long field, the SanFran offense has been league average. Short fields and they can score, but I think the lack of passing production does provide a weak link. BTW, Panthers are #1 in the NFL at making the opponent start at their 20 or worse. (73%, 61 of 84 drives). Compare to SanFran (ranked 10th, @58%)

 

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Additional notes: Indy is the same way as SanFran. Shoft field and Indy is a TD machine...80 yards and Luck & Co. are league average.

 

May get around to creating a Skydrive acct just for this excel file so I can upload and people can view all the data in a webapp.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[49erVisitor]

Good stuff.

[twylyght]

The keys to this game are two-fold for the Panthers to win.  They MUST make Kaepernick commit turnovers, and the make-shift O-Line MUST protect Newton.

 

Their strengths and weaknesses are being pitted against our strengths and weaknesses fairly evenly with respect to season statistics.  The last two weeks have seen the Panthers get away with mistakes that will NOT be forgiven by a 49er team that is hard and disciplined.  Strap the helmets on and get ready for a fight or this can look very bad for either side.

[PhillyB]

i suspect whoever wins is gonna win ugly.

[PantherWake]

Interesting. I guess thats why Mike Greenberg pick us to beat the 49ers lol

[rayzor]

The disparity comes when an offense needs to drive 80 yards to score.

49ers led off in Week 1 at a fantastic 80%. (4 scoring drives out of 5 of 80 yards or longer) against Green Bay. Since then they have fallen quite a bit and not been greater than 33% in any game.

Currently @ 28% (2 FGs, 10 TDs, 43 drives)

On the flip side..

Panthers started week 1, at 17% and have climbed near the top of the NFL since. Currently at 39%, ranked 4th (4 FGs, 9 TDs, 33 drives), tied with Chicago.

 

Given a long field, the SanFran offense has been league average. Short fields and they can score, but I think the lack of passing production does provide a weak link. BTW, Panthers are #1 in the NFL at making the opponent start at their 20 or worse. (73%, 61 of 84 drives). Compare to SanFran (ranked 10th, @58%)

 

this is huge and could be the deciding factor. home field advantage will help, but only so much.

good work again.

[ItsNotGonnaBeAlright]

Here's hoping Gano adds to his probowl resume this week.

Good stuff.

[Beast_3000]

Wow great statistical data! Thank you for the post

[CarolinaNCSU]

Nice work.

 

All comes down to turnover differential this game IMO. Protect the ball, and force a couple of TOs from the 9ers...we can win. Give them extra chances, we lose. 

[CPF4LIFE]

Crazy that they think they are gonna blow us out and none of those stats really backs it up. No passing game but will run the ball down the throat of the number 2 defense in the league? lol

[Ivan The Awesome]

Jesus so many numbers. Amazing work my friend.

[bababoey]

Math is hard and stuff.

[The Golden Child]

Impressive work. nice job

[IamSoClutch]

we have turned the corner but this is the next one coming up. winning a close and ugly game