Discussion on Local Sports Radio

[TylerDurden]

In the Raleigh area...  they mentioned that The Football Outsiders Almanac accurately predicted that we would win the NFC South last year.  This year, they have us at somewhere between 7 and 8 wins, with a 32% chance of making the playoffs.  From all that I've gathered here, they're a pretty reliable and accurate source as far as prognosticating and such...  I hadn't seen that posted here, so what do you think about it?

 

Sadly, unless KB blows up the league really quickly, I definitely seeing us taking a step back.  I will believe we will make the playoffs until we're mathematically eliminated, but I do think with the losses we had from last season's squad, it will be tough to replicate what we did, and I felt that way before hearing this.

I really hope I'm wrong.  I want us to be a perennial contender - and we should be with Cam and Luke as the leaders of each side of the ball, respectively.

 

[TheRumGone]

The last paragraph is all you need to know.

With those two guys anything is possible.

[MHS831]

Funny, but nobody really knows.  A few injuries, a few lucky bounces, and we could be anywhere from 5-11 to 11-5

 

Last year, we got lucky when we beat Atlanta (bad snap).  We got lucky on the call in the endzone vs. New England.  We got lucky vs. Miami, SF there (injuries), etc. Heck, we could have easily been 8-8.

[Chaos]

Our defense is top notch.  That side of the ball alone should keep us in every game we play.  Cam's protection is the only thing I'm worried about going in - definitely not our WR's or secondary. 

[PandaPancake]

Predicting sports with math is damn tough. More accurate than gut feelings but every play with every man's decision is a variable. But I would be more comfortable with their analysis after the preseason

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[MHS831]

Our defense is top notch.  That side of the ball alone should keep us in every game we play.  Cam's protection is the only thing I'm worried about going in - definitely not our WR's or secondary. 

 

This is a good point.  you have to be in position to win to get lucky.

 

[Cary Kollins]

Funny, but nobody really knows. A few injuries, a few lucky bounces, and we could be anywhere from 5-11 to 11-5

Last year, we got lucky when we beat Atlanta (bad snap). We got lucky on the call in the endzone vs. New England. We got lucky vs. Miami, SF there (injuries), etc. Heck, we could have easily been 8-8.

Exactly. And the prior season when we went 7-9 it could have been 12-4.

Luck plays a role in the game. Last season we finally got a few bounces go our way.

[Jakob]

'Professionals' had us going everywhere from 5-11 to 8-8 last season and we ended up tied for the third best record in the NFL. Why I believe 'professionals' are overlooking us is for two reasons. Number one, people overestimate how losing Steve Smith will affect us. I love the guy to death, but I know he was probably looking at a 500-600 yard season at best and I'm highly confident Benjamin can be more productive. The second reason is 'professionals' look at the loss of Jordan Gross and I'll be the first to admit that losing a LT can be devastating. Luckily Nate Chandler is looking like the real deal.

 

I think if Benjamin and Chandler pan out this team will be better than last years.

[The Huddler]

I honestly dont see how we are a worse team than last year. Our defense will improve, and I believe our offense will too. Our personnel on offense really looks like it fits the bill on what we want to do offensivly.

 

we arent built like a high flying outscoring offense and thats not the kind of game we want to play. Baring injury, our run game should improve with the addition of Turner and the return of Amini. The tackles are a questionmark but from the sound of it they dont seem like the disaster many thought they would be going into Camp.

 

WRS- Last season we had dudes who were unreliable who couldnt catch the ball consistenly. Routes were often sloppy. Cam has two Vets now who run very crisp, consistent routes who rarely drop the ball. their run blocking is top notch and will help a lot on the outside. You can't tell me KB isnt an added weapon. the dude has a crazy catch radius and gives Cam the jump ball option he never had. Yeah we lost some guys but who did we really lose? for our scheme and what we try to do as a gamplan as a whole, run the ball, control clock, be consistent. play defense, execute consistently, i really do believe our guys on offense fit the bill. blind faith?

 

how could we be worse? remember out crap secondary going into the season? our poo right side of the offensive line? our poor WR core? we went 12-4 folks. the same people on here claiming theres no way we can win with the personell we had are the same ones doing it this offseason.

[The Huddler]

and as beast as a front seven we had last year, it only can and will get better.

 

Star and Short were both rookies, and our DPOY was only in his second year. Theres no way we are not a playoff team with this defense. no way

[KSpan]

In the Raleigh area... they mentioned that The Football Outsiders Almanac accurately predicted that we would win the NFC South last year. This year, they have us at somewhere between 7 and 8 wins, with a 32% chance of making the playoffs. From all that I've gathered here, they're a pretty reliable and accurate source as far as prognosticating and such... I hadn't seen that posted here, so what do you think about it?

Sadly, unless KB blows up the league really quickly, I definitely seeing us taking a step back. I will believe we will make the playoffs until we're mathematically eliminated, but I do think with the losses we had from last season's squad, it will be tough to replicate what we did, and I felt that way before hearing this.

I really hope I'm wrong. I want us to be a perennial contender - and we should be with Cam and Luke as the leaders of each side of the ball, respectively.

Did the Farmer's Almanac get a sports section?

[Happy Panther]

I'd bet money we are worse for one simple reason (although there are others.)

 

12-4 is tough to do no matter who you are. If you look at history 12 wins will put you in the top 4 teams in the league shockingly consistently. Are we a top 4 team in the NFL? Maybe. I just would bet against it

 

 

[updownsigma]

Lol for some reason I read the OP as "they accurately predicted we would win the NFC south THIS year."

And I was like fug yeah! A little more confidence in the team than I have but ok I like it!

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[ickmule]

I have no idea why anyone tries to predict records, but I'll give it a Try with no explanation for anything. 11-5 division winners and 1 game away from the SB. Next year SB champs. How's that? I think just as good as any.

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