Football Outsiders early NFCS prediction

[CelibatePimp]

ATL 10-6

NO 10-6

CAR 7-9

TB 6-10

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/fo-espn-feature-columns/2015/espn-early-nfc-projections-2015

 

 

 

As I did a year ago, I've done a "quick version" of 2015 projections for ESPN Insider. These are not the official projections that will appear in FOA 2015. They simply regress DVOA to the mean for offense, defense, and special teams each separately, then make some small changes based on injury rates last year and certain personnel changes. The NFC projections are about as expected, except perhaps in the NFC South where we see both Atlanta and New Orleans rebounding. Easy schedules are a big help.

 

 

Explanation as follows;

 

 

Dan Quinn figures to preside over an improvement in Atlanta. Daniel Shirey/Getty Images Another important element of our NFC South forecast is the fact that offense tends to be more consistent than defense from year to year. Atlanta and New Orleans were strong on offense and terrible on defense a year ago. Those defenses are more likely to improve than the offenses are to decline. Again, Carolina does not follow this same pattern, and therefore does not improve in our projection. When it comes to turning things around, the Falcons have some additional factors in their favor that the Saints do not have. Atlanta's offense should be better based on improved health (30th in offensive AGL in 2014) and the maturation of a top young offensive tackle (Jake Matthews). Even these numbers may be underestimating the importance of the players the Saints lost due to salary-cap issues, or the addition in Atlanta of our top projected rookie edge rusher, Vic Beasley.

 

Kind of makes sense. NO and ATL still had very good offenses despite those small wins, any slight improvement in defense and these teams are top again. However I take comfort in the fact that we were able to shut down those offenses in their respective domes. If our defense can show like it did towards the end of the season, we should not have to worry.

[Ivan The Awesome]

Amazing piece of journalism, jeeves.

[ctrcat]

So worse than last year despite being better at every single unit on the team including QB with a healthy Cam and an easier schedule? Retarded.

[WOW!!]

The guy was on local radio.. And was spewing so of the dumbest poo..

1. He doesn't see a difference in the team from last year at this time to now..

2. Offenses usually stay good year after year but defenses don't.. Which I know I've learn that to be the other way around.. Usually good defensive teams stay good for longer than good offensive ones.. Steelers, Ravens, Seahawk, and Bears, were good longer than some of the best offenses.. Greatest show on truff was good for 3 years right??

3. Thought our special teams were avg. Last year and won't improve much.

[Thorrez]

Looks like he interprets that offenses with great qbs (Brady/manning great) stays great over seasons as offenses in general do.

Nothing to see here, move along.

[dcpanther89]

This makes no sense mind you we lost to both teams during the season those so called good offenses sputtered when the division was on the line we may not have gotten sexy names to these so called experts but we did improve miles past what we were overlooked again and hopefully will prove them wrong with a third STRAIGHT NFCS championship

[Jangler]

That's another reason why this season is gonna be great. We will back up a 7-9 with a 14-2.

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

7-9 and 8-8 are the worst case scenarios. no playoffs and rivera prob stays

[PanthersAlv]

So, because the Falcons and Saints had good offense last season and they won't slump... but their defense will be better, they will jump, leap, bound and land tied at the top (unofficially)?

 

But, the Panthers who didn't have as good an offense last season, but improved it, and solidified even more the defense that is still the best in the division, will have less wins (with minus one game has the same "easy schedule" as the rest of the division) ?????

 

Come on now.

[uncfan888]

I hate any journalist that doesn't put us at number one in pre-season polls.

Oh, sorry.. I mean I don't care

[Johnny Rockets]

The guy was on local radio.. And was spewing so of the dumbest poo..

1. He doesn't see a difference in the team from last year at this time to now..

2. Offenses usually stay good year after year but defenses don't.. Which I know I've learn that to be the other way around.. Usually good defensive teams stay good for longer than good offensive ones.. Steelers, Ravens, Seahawk, and Bears, were good longer than some of the best offenses.. Greatest show on truff was good for 3 years right??

3. Thought our special teams were avg. Last year and won't improve much.

[caatfan]

"1. He doesn't see a difference in the team from last year at this time to now.. "

 

I think that says it all. Last spring we were depleted at WR, DB, and OL, and how anyone can look at the current roster and not see significant improvement is beyond me. 

 

I'd put more credibility in NO and ATL improving and moving past us, but I don't buy it. I think they've both got more holes to plug than the Panthers, and I think we did better in the draft than most think.

[The Lobo]

I still don't see how the saints will be good without Jimmy Graham to bail them out.

[Davidson Deac II]

I still don't see how the saints will be good without Jimmy Graham to bail them out.

 

 

It will depend on how their draft picks work out.  They went heavy on defense.  If the younger guys can play well in their rookie season (as some of ours did towards the end of last season), then they will be better.  If they are bust, or it takes them a while to integrate, then they will be as bad or worse than last season.