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And the analytics say.....

sml1950

By sml1950,
in Carolina Panthers

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csx Grand Master

csx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam said:

The team with the best regular season record or 15-1 has never won the SB. They were saying on Sirius XM NFL yesterday.

They are wrong. The Bears did it with 15-1. The Seahawks were tied for first and won it 2 years ago.

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KB_fan Proficient

KB_fan

Posted
Posted

Here's an interesting stat.  Both teams have excellent records in winning close games. 

Quote

 

Once upon a time, Carolina coach Ron Rivera could hardly ever win the close games. That has changed dramatically – and the Cardinals win those sorts of games, too. From 2013-15, Arizona has an NFL-best .762 winning percentage in games decided by seven points or fewer. Carolina is second by an eyelash at .761.


 

I think the cold and the field, the home crowd, and our running game will give us the advantage, but I've not yet come up with a score prediction.   If not for the field, I would predict a high-scoring affair, something like 38 - 28, but field conditions might lower that total...  I'm leaning towards 28 - 21 Panthers.

 
 
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CPantherKing Grand Master

CPantherKing

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, sml1950 said:

https://realfootballnetwork.com/2016/01/21/nfc-championship-game-cardinals-at-panthers/

Two worrisome stats that stand out:

The last 4 15-1 teams to play have lost.

The Cards are 35-0 when leading in the 4th quarter.

 

These are not analytics. There is no meaningful pattern to define them as analytics. Just random facts.

As for the 15-1 teams, I can only think of 2 of them. Packers in 2011 and Vikings in 1998. Who are the other 2?

While we are talking about worrisome stats let me put those worries to rest.

The Panthers are the most productive team in the 2nd quarter in the NFL since the merger with an increase in scoring margin from the end of the 1st quarter to halftime of 133 points. Only 13 teams since the merger have eclipsed the 100 point mark in 2nd quarter scoring margin.

For some perspective, the Panthers have a scoring margin of +176 points at the half this season. The Cardinals are +79 at the half. 

Now, in an effort to make you feel more at ease let me give you actual analytics with this chart that details the expected progression of the game with key moments of meaningful patterns from each team. Patterns of significant momentum gains and transitory weakness based on group/team efficacy are detailed in green. Have fun with it, but do not bank on it (work in progress). This is based on an algorithm I have been working on with some friends. The goal is to give coaches/managers predictable patterns of behavior that will allow them to attack weak points of opposing teams, protect weak points of their team, and take educated risks at the appropriate time. This algorithm pinpoints shifts down to the second, but I went with quarters for the sake of fun. I did a general map for the Panthers plan of attack. Leaving out the plan of attack for the Cardinals since I want them to lose. Stat heads enjoy.2u95nv4.jpg

Feel better now? You can worry come the last 7 minutes of the game if the coaches stick to their normal plan to protect the lead without attacking the Cardinals tendencies. Until then no worries.

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