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I like our chance to at least look respectable with Bryce, but we will still be overmatched. They have better X’s and O’s and the Jimmies and Joes. -
By kungfoodude · Posted
Well the entire intent of this is based on success of the pick based on the performance of the QB for an "expected" minimum return. I think that is where maybe I am not explaining what I am doing as well as I need to. The intent of all of this is to spit out a percentage of "success" for QB's picked in each round. The specific QB's are just lines of data in the spreadsheet that's feeding the minimums. So what I am attempting to do is build out/fine tune a reasonable set of minimums you would expect to see given the round drafted(cost, if you will). My logic is basically this: 1st Rounders Hall of Fame - No explanation needed. This was an all time great player. MVP/All Pro/Pro Bowl - Achievement that even if only happened once, this was a worthy investment. The player was able to reach near or league best play, even if briefly. IMO, using just one as a threshold is fair. Even though it might only happen once, they reached their potential. This also filters out some other elements like injury shortened careers. Guys like Andrew Luck and RGIII pass as "successful" without being filtered out by the next minimum. 8+ Years as a Starter: This is a bit more debateable but I have included it as a function to catch some guys that might be a "soft success." The logic here being that perhaps a lengthy NFL starting career is "good enough" to be a success. Much more so than a failure. A drafted QB that was able to be a long term NFL starter is very desired, even if elite status was not ever truly reached. The only example of this that DOESN'T include some previously listed accolades in the almost 300 data points is.....Joe Flacco. And I think anyone at this point would have a hard time arguing that he was not a successful 1st round pick. I am just gonna explain the first round logic but the rest of the rounds are similar. If you achieve any of these things, I would consider you a "success." Perhaps that will make it my thought process more clear. Once again, very grateful to have all the debates and input on this. I do want to make this a meaningful thing I can keep updating. -
By SaltAndPepper · Posted
we win... i have nothing to lose and everything to gain with this prediction
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