Curious for the thoughts of more experienced football minds

[UpstatePanther]

So there has been some great discussion of our WR corps lately, but nothing all in one thread as far as i could tell. I did search, so apologies if I missed something. 

Im curious how our offensive pieces fit together, specifically our receiving corps. I definitely include Greg and Dickson in that because they have their parts to play. I don't know enough to argue too much about who's gonna play what position and what role they'll have in our offense. So I'm kinda asking for an education. 

Perhaps the best way to get this discussion started is to ask a few specific questions:

- how many receivers do you think we will keep?

- what combination of them will best fit the direction our offense seems to be taking?

- how do the talents of McCaffrey and Samuel fit in with those of Benji, Funchess, Shepard, Olsen, and others?

- how will our pieces be able to take advantage of the weaknesses of the teams in our division, or better yet all those on our schedule in 2017?

I'd love those who currently do or have coached/played to give some insight here. 

[Steves89]

Mike Lombardi of the Ringer often talks about building a wide receiver corps or a secondary the way you build a basket ball team (total of five)but in particular you need a center - big strong and tall (that's KB for us, Sanu is a good example as well) a power forward strength, size and speed, a true #1 wr (Julio Jones, demarius Thomas, or if you are us Funch. I think this is where we are weakest), and a point guard - fast and agile in the slot (edelman or in our case Samuel)

Now I don't really know basketball. And for that matter I don't really know football, which will become immediately apparent if you read this post, but Lombardi's a smart dude so maybe that helps.

[X-Clown on 1]

I think the two main factors that will make the difference for RR and DG when trying to decide who fills out our WR corps, are 1) experience in the league and 2) special teams contributions.  This is why guys like Shepard are a nice luxury to have as they have some years in the NFL already and a very proven special teams background.  I think guys like Charles Johnson are going to find themselves on the out, as they don't really contribute to special teams (have tried to in the past but nothing consistent) and he's posted a few blah seasons in the league so far.  Guys keep wondering how Bersin sticks around....he runs good routes, has above average hands, has experience with this team, and is a special teams contributor (not his punt returning, but his blocking and coverage).  

I think the last wild card decision in whether we keep 5 or 6 guys is going to be who that 6th guy is.  Gettleman has spoken before in the past about cutting guys from the 53 and before placing them on the PS, his main question he asks his staff is "will this guy give you heartburn if another team picks him up first?".  If they answer yes to that 6th guy, I think they keep him and they flex the WR corps to 6, instead of 5.  Again, that 6th guy better have some special teams skills to justify him bumping another guy off the roster.

Here's how I see it:

Locks:

Benjamin

Funchess

Shepard

Samuel

Fighting for 5^th:

Bersin

Garrett

Byrd 

Fighting for 6^th:

Ross

C. Johnson

[UpstatePanther]

2 minutes ago, X-Clown on 1 said:

Fighting for 5^th:

Bersin

Garrett

Byrd 

Fighting for 6^th:

Ross

C. Johnson

Just curious... do you have those grouped according to special teams contribution potential?

[Bronn]

2 hours ago, UpstatePanther said:

So there has been some great discussion of our WR corps lately, but nothing all in one thread as far as i could tell. I did search, so apologies if I missed something. 

Im curious how our offensive pieces fit together, specifically our receiving corps. I definitely include Greg and Dickson in that because they have their parts to play. I don't know enough to argue too much about who's gonna play what position and what role they'll have in our offense. So I'm kinda asking for an education. 

Perhaps the best way to get this discussion started is to ask a few specific questions:

- how many receivers do you think we will keep?

- what combination of them will best fit the direction our offense seems to be taking?

- how do the talents of McCaffrey and Samuel fit in with those of Benji, Funchess, Shepard, Olsen, and others?

- how will our pieces be able to take advantage of the weaknesses of the teams in our division, or better yet all those on our schedule in 2017?

I'd love those who currently do or have coached/played to give some insight here. 

I think we could keep 6 WR, but we have the flexibility to only keep 5.

Locks:
Benji
Funch
Samuel

Likely 4 & 5:
CJ 2.0
Shepard

Kept around somehow:
Bersin

Outside looking in:
Byrd, Ross, etc.

I fully expect we'll use some forms of the Pistol offense with both CMC and JStew in the backfield to offer a run threat, but then throw out of it.

On the TE front, I really am unsure of the plans. Aside from Olsen, I wouldn't say anyone is a lock. I've said Dickson should be cut since last year, and have been wrong the whole time. It seems Manhertz is highly thought of, and honestly Simonson was unimpressive to me. Throw in the fact that Armah could come into the TE discussion as a bit of a hybrid, and it makes things even more muddied. This is a good thing for us, though, because opposing teams will be in the same situation as we are as casual viewers.

CMC and Samuel will demand a guy, either a Nickel or a LB, keep eyes on them when one or both are on the field, simply because of their threat to run or receive, and because they are so athletic. This will free up some pressure teams either put towards the outside rush on our Tackles, or on Olsen, or on our outside guys in the zones.

A lot of the teams in our own division decided to actually do what everyone here was saying the year before, as in bracketing Olsen and zoning out the outside guys. This basically made Shula's only option running when the other team expected it, or trying to get Ginn open between zones or beating a man guy 1 v. 1. Teams knew it was coming. Thankfully, there isn't as much edge rush within our division as there is in the rest of the league and base 3-4 defenses. This allowed us to actually have more success within our division, actually adjusting our offense, than outside of it. The other teams realized this, though, and drafted guys to help solve those inadequacies. Expect more edge rushers and better DBs in the NFCS this year.

I believe though, with our own additions, we saw it coming. We've set ourselves up nicely to counter what our division opponents have tried to adjust. While they are going to be trying to rush the outside more and zone out our TE and outside guys, we have some new toys to exploit the flats and the middle of the field on quicker reads. If we can execute it, we should find success early on that we can hopefully build on down the stretch.

I think it will look a bit more like a WCO, but we'll still have some read options and those infuriating Shula draws. But I'm hoping it won't really matter who our outside guys are all that much, until it does actually matter and we catch teams looking too close to the line of scrimmage and Benji or Funch is matched up 1v1 on a post or a corner route. We're looking for mismatches, and now have the weapons on the middle of the field to create them.

[AU-panther]

Most likely locks:

KB - High draft pick

Funchess - High draft pick

Samuel - High draft pick

Shepard - contract would indicate that they plan on keeping him for at least one year.

Then you pick 1 or 2 out of

Byrd

Bersin

CJ 2.0

Garrett

Ross

 

Ross seems practice squad bound, Garrett seems redundant with KB and Funchess.  So I think it is between Byrd, Bersin, and CJ for the last 1 or 2 spots.

Byrd and Bersin both made it last year so they should know the system somewhat.

CJ received a little bit of a signing bonus which is sometimes a sign., but not always.

 

Personally I think it will be CJ and then Bryd if we keep 6.  Both have the speed to help replace Ginn.

 

 

[Daddy_Uncle]

too many questions. I'll pass 

[panther4life]

3 hours ago, UpstatePanther said:

 

1- how many receivers do you think we will keep?

2- what combination of them will best fit the direction our offense seems to be taking?

3- how do the talents of McCaffrey and Samuel fit in with those of Benji, Funchess, Shepard, Olsen, and others?

4- how will our pieces be able to take advantage of the weaknesses of the teams in our division, or better yet all those on our schedule in 2017?

I'd love those who currently do or have coached/played to give some insight here. 

1. 5-6. Historically speaking only the top 4 will receive decent playing time.  Last year over 50 % of our plays included 3 WR sets. I don't have the data for previous years, but it does show we typically rotate the best 4 in those packages. 

2. Benjamin is still our # 1 receiver and it will likely be between him and Olsen for most targets this season. Olsen saw field most with 93% of the snaps played. Benjamin followed with 72%, Ginn at 62%, Brown at 53% and Funchess was the 4th "receiver" with 47% of the offensive snaps played. Dickson was close with 43%. Tolbert and Whittaker rounded out the top snap's at skill positions with 29 and 27%.

Our most popular personnel group was the 11 personnel (1 tight end, 1 RB, 3WR'S). I expect that to remain the same. If everyone lives up to their potential our most explosive package in that personnel package would be.

Outside WR- Benjamin, Funchess, 

Slot WR - Samuel

RB- McCaffrey

TE- Olsen

Funchess would be taking on the role of 2nd receiver after playing the 4th the past 2 years. Samuel would fill the role occupied by Ginn/Brown. 4th receiver in the rotation hasn't been determined yet but I would think Shepard has to be the favorite right now.

Then McCaffrey could alternate with Stewart here.  

Thats just 1 of many possible formations, but again it was what we historically use the most of. 

In spite of his critic's, Benjamin will always draw attention and can win in single coverage against most corners. Funchess really needs to step up his consistency. He's showcased the ability to make big plays and if he can so with more regularity this will be huge. Then Samuel, can be the guy who stretches the field for us. He won't be limited to that as a quick crossing route that, gets him in space could be just as potent. Lastly we know what Olsen can do. Damn near everything, from deep route's or that fake screen to the rb, then screen pass to him. Having Samuel take attention away from him should be huge. 

McCaffrey,will be a nice chess piece. Cam can easily diagnose a defense by moving him around to see how they react and they will have to respect that movement each time because it may be a legit audible. In terms of the pass game, back before Tolbert started regressing he was actually a decent dump off target, who could create yards after the catch. McCaffrey should be 5 times better than Tolbert ever was at that and this should be a nice help for Cam as well.

3. See above

4. I don't have a short answer for that one.

This chart is an excellent breakdown of personnel groupings we used on offense last year and how it compares to the rest of the NFL. https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

Biggest takeaway from the chart is we never use more than 3 WR's on the field at once. But over 50% of the time we have a 3 WR package on the field. Followed by  2 WR's, 2RB's and 1 TE and then lastly 2 WRS, 2 TE,s and 1 RB. 

While I am excited for the potential these new weapons bring and am confident they will help make everyone around them better, it all starts up front. M. Kalil is going to have to be a good anchor at LT and Moton or whoever wins the RT job needs to be at least average. The interior, if healthy should be just fine. If the O-line plays well, I think the rest of our offense can go back to having fun,dominating and dancing. 

One more good link regarding our offense. https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/toars--off-.html

This shows you who was targeted the most last year,the success rate and Cam's QB rating when targeting each Receiver,TE or HB. You can also sort by a number of other things such as deep passes,down and distance, position targeted, etc.

 

 

[UpstatePanther]

2 hours ago, panther4life said:

 

Great explanation P4L! Thanks for that!

[MHS831]

8 hours ago, UpstatePanther said:

So there has been some great discussion of our WR corps lately, but nothing all in one thread as far as i could tell. I did search, so apologies if I missed something. 

Im curious how our offensive pieces fit together, specifically our receiving corps. I definitely include Greg and Dickson in that because they have their parts to play. I don't know enough to argue too much about who's gonna play what position and what role they'll have in our offense. So I'm kinda asking for an education. 

Perhaps the best way to get this discussion started is to ask a few specific questions:

- how many receivers do you think we will keep?

- what combination of them will best fit the direction our offense seems to be taking?

- how do the talents of McCaffrey and Samuel fit in with those of Benji, Funchess, Shepard, Olsen, and others?

- how will our pieces be able to take advantage of the weaknesses of the teams in our division, or better yet all those on our schedule in 2017?

I'd love those who currently do or have coached/played to give some insight here. 

I played in college and coached high school football, and I can tell you 2 things--the game has changed a lot since then and the difference between college/high school and pros is significant.  Nobody is really an expert on NFL matters based on that experience--but I get the intent. 

I like these questions, however, and would liike to try to answer them.   There will be a lot of movement between slot and RB and RB to slot--I still think KB will play a role, but I do not think he will be the first option as much.  I think we get in trouble thinking about WRs in terms of #1 and #2--that is a fantasy football thing--and is really determined by the CB the opposition puts on your guys.  We are tired of the lack of separation as a debt we pay for Cam's accuracy.  Instead, we will require the defense to cover the entire secondary.  That means flats and underneath routes.  Before, only Olsen and an occasional Brown went there.  Frankly, you could cover both with LBs and Safeties.

Benji

Samuel

Funchess (I expect Devin to benefit a lot from this new arrangement)

Shepherd

Byrd (my longshot, but we need 2 slots)

I think we could keep 6, and that last one is Johnson or Ross--but 5 is what I expect.  Ross to PS. 

 

[UpstatePanther]

Thanks so much @MHS831! That was awesome! 

Based on what everyone has said so far, it sounds like there's really only debate about the final spot or two in the WR corps.

general consensus seems to be that Benji, Funch, Samuel, and Shepard are locks. Out of the remaining guys, I like Ross and Johnson, as you said. Ross for speed and Johnson for vet presence, though he seems redundant talent-wise with Benji and Funch on the roster.

[MHS831]

7 hours ago, UpstatePanther said:

Thanks so much @MHS831! That was awesome! 

Based on what everyone has said so far, it sounds like there's really only debate about the final spot or two in the WR corps.

general consensus seems to be that Benji, Funch, Samuel, and Shepard are locks. Out of the remaining guys, I like Ross and Johnson, as you said. Ross for speed and Johnson for vet presence, though he seems redundant talent-wise with Benji and Funch on the roster.

I am guessing Ross goes to the PS and Johnson makes the squad--but really, do not count Byrd out.  It is going to be a great camp. 

[jdpanther5]

- how many receivers do you think we will keep?

- what combination of them will best fit the direction our offense seems to be taking?

- how do the talents of McCaffrey and Samuel fit in with those of Benji, Funchess, Shepard, Olsen, and others?

- how will our pieces be able to take advantage of the weaknesses of the teams in our division, or better yet all those on our schedule in 2017?

 

 

-As has been mentioned, the typical range is 5-6; though with all the flexible, versatile players we've added we could see that change a bit. Like, maybe keep a designated returner instead of sending one of our first two picks out there.

 

-Kelvin, Funch, and Samuel are veritable locks, and Shepard is likely close to it. After that it's eight guys going after 1-2 spots. Personally I'm really intrigued by Charles Johnson*, who brings both size and speed, whereas his competition is largely one or the other.

 

Sub-6-foot speedsters: Byrd, Clay, Frazier, Duke

Big-bodied plodders: Bersin, Garrett, Ross

 

Maybe "plodder" is harsh, but you get the point. I do think Garrett vs. Ross could be interesting: receivers with production and NFL measurables that still went undrafted. Maybe not active roster guys, but could be competing for the Stephen Hill memorial practice squad spot for project receivers.

 

Byrd would seemingly have a big lead over the other slot options, should they keep another.

 

(*Aside: Johnson also has the third highest cap hit amongst receivers, behind Kelvin and Shepard but ahead of Funchess and Samuel)

 

-Kelvin is exclusively an outside guy, but I'm really interested to see the Funchess/Samuel dynamic. One is an outside receiver whose best role is likely that of a Colston-esque big slot, while the other is a designated slot receiver who we're gonna call on to stretch the field as well. Opposites, but in a complementary way. I'm really excited to see how these two are used.

 

Oh, and McCaffrey, he's pretty good too. My working theory is that, after all the time the team invested in finding that second TE, the draft really changed that focus. The choice between Caf and Howard was essentially a decision been 21 and 12 personnel, with the Panthers choosing the former. Then the two-TE dream effectively ended completely when Njoku and Engram went off the board, so they instead invested in the best slot receiver in the draft (quite a consolation). Maybe they still go after Barnidge, but it might be tough to find snaps for him as we're less likely to see much 12.

 

But man, the 21 grouping with Stewart and Caf in the backfield and Olsen, Kelvin/Funch and Samuel as receiving options is a fun one to think about.

 

Sent using the amazing CarolinaHuddle mobile app

 

 

 

[rmoneyg35]

People are counting Charles Johnson out but I think he has a good chance. His 40 time at his pro day was clocked at 4.35 and 4.38. 

 

The question is can Fred Ross make the roster? I believe he is a sleeper.  

 

One quesition I have is if we are changing our WR corps completely and going away from using 6-4+ WR and instead using sub 4.40 WR or are we just adding speedy WR to complement our big WR? This offseason we signed WRs Charles Johnson, Kaelin Clay and Russell Sheppard all who are under 6-4 and have speed and some special teams experience. Add the fact we also drafted Samuel and Mccaffrey who can move to WR if needed. So it seems all off-season our plan was to get faster WR.