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The first time the dog bites, it is the dog's fault...

MHS831

By MHS831,
in Carolina Panthers

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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I  have not seen Rivera's  decisions on the goal line questioned yet.  However, it was a few  years ago--against Buffalo--when RR kicked a FG up by 3 on fourth and 1.  We lost when Buffalo scored a TD.  Rivera admitted it was stupid, and he converted to what we would later call  Riverboat Ron.

Sunday was no  different. On 4th and 2 or so, we should have gone for it for the exact same reason we should have a few years ago against buffalo.  And we nearly lost the same way--a TD pass at the end of the game. 

I stumbled across this ESPN article  that explains my point-

"The Panthers' field goal on 4th and goal from the 2, up 3 points in the 4th quarter, stands out as the biggest 4th down error of the week, losing 5% win probability based on the decision. Being up 6 with about 3 minutes to play merely invites the Bills to go for the TD and the win, rather than a FG to tie. And failing to convert wouldn't be so bad, leaving the Bills likely inside their own 2. Ultimately, it didn't cost the Panthers, as the Bills failed to score on their final drive. "

Riverboat Ron?  Hardly.  Any gambler knows the odds and plays them.   He should have known what to do having been there before against the very same team.

 

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*FreeFua* Grand Master

*FreeFua*

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14 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I  have not seen Rivera's  decisions on the goal line questioned yet.  However, it was a few  years ago--against Buffalo--when RR kicked a FG up by 3 on fourth and 1.  We lost when Buffalo scored a TD.  Rivera admitted it was stupid, and he converted to what we would later call  Riverboat Ron.

Sunday was no  different. On 4th and 2 or so, we should have gone for it for the exact same reason we should have a few years ago against buffalo.  And we nearly lost the same way--a TD pass at the end of the game. 

I stumbled across this ESPN article  that explains my point-

"The Panthers' field goal on 4th and goal from the 2, up 3 points in the 4th quarter, stands out as the biggest 4th down error of the week, losing 5% win probability based on the decision. Being up 6 with about 3 minutes to play merely invites the Bills to go for the TD and the win, rather than a FG to tie. And failing to convert wouldn't be so bad, leaving the Bills likely inside their own 2. Ultimately, it didn't cost the Panthers, as the Bills failed to score on their final drive. "

Riverboat Ron?  Hardly.  Any gambler knows the odds and plays them.   He should have known what to do having been there before against the very same team.

 

We go for it and don't get it we leave them needing roughly 63 yards to be able to kick a 52 yarder to tie. Most likely wouldn't have gone for it on 4th down if in range. So roughly minimum 63 yards plus one less down as they got closer

vs 

Getting the ball at the 25 and needing 75 yards plus all 4 downs to win the game. 

 

In the end we definitely dodged a huge bullet as Jones was wide open and Taylor just flat out missed him.

Rivera is a defensive kind of guy and that will never change. Unless he's about to get fired and doesn't have Cam yelling at him to go for it he's going to kick it 100% of the time

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AggieLean Grand Master

AggieLean

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When we kicked the field goal, I figured Tyrod was going to lead the Bills to victory. I guess if Cam hits CMC on the previous play there's no worry, but man, I would've trotted Cam and them back out there on that 4th and told them to get me that TD. There's no way I allow myself even the possibility of losing to the Bills again in similar fashion. He should've went for it, but atleast we won

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*FreeFua* Grand Master

*FreeFua*

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3 minutes ago, PntherPryd said:

I hate how freaking mathematicians have taken over the NFL.   Especially on articles the day after the game.  At home you put points on the board against that tough defense and you let your defense win the game.  

Easy Ron, we're just talking here

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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5 minutes ago, PntherPryd said:

I hate how freaking mathematicians have taken over the NFL.   Especially on articles the day after the game.  At home you put points on the board against that tough defense and you let your defense win the game.  

You play the percentages.  You do it in Baseball (Leftie reliever vs.  Leftie batter, etc) , you do it in basketball (foul the person whose free throw percentage is 62% vs. the guy with 88%), and you do it in football.  It is called SMART. 

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PntherPryd Rookie

PntherPryd

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1 minute ago, MHS831 said:

You play the percentages.  You do it in Baseball (Leftie reliever vs.  Leftie batter, etc) , you do it in basketball (foul the person whose free throw percentage is 62% vs. the guy with 88%), and you do it in football.  It is called SMART. 

cool story.

I cry BS on that mathematical formula.  At home, with this defense, you kick the damn FG.

 

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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1 minute ago, PntherPryd said:

cool story.

I cry BS on that mathematical formula.  At home, with this defense, you kick the damn FG.

 

You can cry whatever you want, but you are wrong.  Zay Jones dropped a pass  that should have beat us.  Just like they did years ago.  Smart coaches put the odds in their team's favor if they can---and he reduced our odds of winning by 5%.  That is not BS--that is how the Patriots beat teams--they put the opposition at a disadvantage.  This is more chess than it is chest pounding.

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PntherPryd Rookie

PntherPryd

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1 minute ago, MHS831 said:

You can cry whatever you want, but you are wrong.  Zay Jones dropped a pass  that should have beat us.  Just like they did years ago.  Smart coaches put the odds in their team's favor if they can---and he reduced our odds of winning by 5%.  That is not BS--that is how the Patriots beat teams--they put the opposition at a disadvantage.  This is more chess than it is chest pounding.

I can respect you and not agree.

 

I'm in it for the chest pounding and the W

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