Football Outsiders - Panthers Outplayed Eagles All Four Quarters + Norv Turner Is Amazing

[Saca312]

Found a really good article on our win from last week. Talks about what we did, the DVOA, and basically how much of a genius Norv Turner actually is. 

I'll post a few important segments, but highly recommend reading it all.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/any-given-sunday/2018/any-given-sunday-panthers-over-eagles

...

By the DVOA

DVOA	OFF	DEF	ST	TOT
CAR	38.7%	-2.4%	-0.8%	40.3%
PHI	-12.5%	20.4%	-5.7%	-38.6%
VOA	OFF	DEF	ST	TOT
CAR	38.9%	-8.3%	-0.8%	46.3%
PHI	-8.9%	24.4%	-5.7%	-39.0%

Yes, even though the Eagles had a 17-0 lead at one point, they were roundly outplayed by Carolina throughout the game. There are no typos in the above table.

Why the discrepancy between Carolina's huge advantage in DVOA and their tiny advantage on the scoreboard? DVOA saw a team that should have been scoring points all game finally getting it together in the fourth quarter. DVOA saw a team that averaged a yard more per play and had no turnovers to Philadelphia's three fumbles. DVOA saw a team that consistently moved into Eagles territory but was unable to finish those drives. Carolina reached Philadelphia territory three times before they scored their first point, punting on fourth-and-5 from the Philadelphia 44, on fourth-and-15 from the Philadelphia 31, and on fourth-and-20 from the Philadelphia 43. They punted a fourth time from the Carolina 42 on fourth-and-3. Howling winds and back-breaking third- and fourth-down penalties forced that conservatism.

...

The Carolina Panthers are Actually Fun

...

Finally freed from Mike Shula, the Panthers offense has taken some major leaps forward under Norv Turner. Yes, yes, the super old school, Air Coryell guy. That's the one who has created a diverse option and run-action game.

I mean, Taylor Moton didn't even find someone to block. It didn't even matter. The Panthers were 11th in rushing DVOA last year, and that comes with the asterisk of Cam Newton's usual 122 runs of positive value boosting things up. This year, the Panthers are up to a 14.3% rushing DVOA, third-best in the NFL.

Carolina's short-area game is sort of unfair when you look at the diversity of options it gives them underneath. Both Curtis Samuel and McCaffrey are dynamic players with the ball in open space. When they mesh together, with one of the greatest running quarterbacks of this generation, they create an unholy web of options that opposing linebackers and safeties have to carefully consider. McCaffrey's final catch of the game to set the Panthers up with goal-to-go fits that category. I don't know how a defense stops this kind of play out of the backfield:

You certainly can't expect many linebackers to beat McCaffrey outside, and throwing in the pick on top of things just makes it seems too easy.

Now I want you to keep in mind that the Panthers have done this despite upheaval along the offensive line. Starting left tackle Chris Clark was signed in September. Andrew Norwell fill-in Greg Van Roten had zero career snaps as an undrafted free agent before this year. Daryl Williams' MCL injury left the team scrambling to start Moton at tackle; Moton was a second-round pick, but one that was thought of by some scouts as an interior lineman. Trai Turner has also missed time this way, forcing Tyler Larsen into the starting lineup.

There are teams with that kind of offensive line situation -- like say, ones in New York or Jacksonville -- that completely fall apart as a rushing offense. Some of Carolina's success is good work by the scouting team to find a player like Van Roten. But some of it is also just understanding how to best get their running attack in to space.

The job that Turner has done so far should be an inspiration to a slew of other teams that have tools goofs at quarterback. If you're stuck with Blake Bortles or Josh Allen, but can pair him with this kind of short-area production, you can create a successful offense even without much in the way of receiving talent or quarterback accuracy.

[Saca312]

Just now, Professor Chaos said:

Lol I don't know what kind of bullshit metric they're using but they got the ever loving poo kicked out of them for 3 quarters.

You seriously don't know about FO DVOA? Arguably one of the most reputable metrics out there in terms of analytical efficiency of teams.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

THE SHORT VERSION:

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. 

• DVOA EXPLAINED
• DYAR EXPLAINED
• SPECIAL TEAMS STATS
• DRIVE STATS
• ADJUSTED LINE YARDS and other offensive/defensive line stats

[The Huddler]

we got outplayed for 3 quarters

 

yardage, score, etc.  

 

eyeball test

 

 

[TheSpecialJuan]

[PntherPryd]

I love the article but watching their defense work through blocks and stay aggressive for 3 quarters versus our defense playing well only in spots and allowing long drives, the Panthers failed my eyeball test as well.

Clearly the offensive game plan was not working for 3 quarters, not sure how desperation is a nominating factor for "genius" by Norv.  

The best part about the game is Norv is bright enough to have seen when the light switch for this offense went ON.  Not sure Ron recognized it was getting a little dark out.

 

[jtm]

Sorry, but I agree with everyone that this metric is ridiculous. Panthers played awful for 3 qtrs and Wentz was throwing darts. I think Wentz only had one incompletion in the first half and Cam couldn’t hit anyone. 

[GoobyPls]

DVOA is just as bad as PFF

 

We got out coached and out played for 3 quarters soundly

[DeAngelo Beason]

It doesn't matter if we got outplayed during 3 quarters.  We were the better team overall.  It's a 4 quarter game and we scored more points during those 4 quarters (in spite of some garbage officiating). 

[Manther]

Offense in 1st 3 quarters

5 plays 15 yards, punt

5 plays 7 yards punt

3 plays 7 yards punt

5 plays 44 yards punt

10 plays 33 yards punt

Not sure how this earns a high rating in anything.  Did they forget to carry the one?

[Tomcatn]

Not how you start, it's how you finish....ask the Eagles.

[RumHam]

 

You seriously don't know about FO DVOA? Arguably one of the most reputable metrics out there in terms of analytical efficiency of teams.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

THE SHORT VERSION:

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. 

• DVOA EXPLAINED
• DYAR EXPLAINED
• SPECIAL TEAMS STATS
• DRIVE STATS
• ADJUSTED LINE YARDS and other offensive/defensive line stats

Metrics are bullshit. Ask the Dodgers. A movie was made on an experimental research done in baseball 15 years ago that didn't even net that team a championship. All these front offices want to feel like they're advancing. fug metrics and fug having 1% chance to win the game in the 4th. All pointless.

[RumHam]

BTW Norv is awful. The Huddle told me so.

[FugAllY'all]

Metrics aside, Norv is amazing. It wasn't this article, but it was another from an Eagles source that showed how Norv was using modern run game concepts (RPOs, jets sweeps, lots of pre-snap motions etc...) to open up Coryell route concepts over the top. The whole goal is to force the defense to bring more players into the box to cover all our various weapons coming out of the backfield, leaving WRs running free. There's a reason we've seen a lot more receptions being made by guys surrounded by grass instead of defenders. 

You go look at our last three games, and we're really right there. When you consider the turmoil along the line, all the young players asked to step up into critical roles while veterans are still getting comfortable in a new defense, then the best is definitely still to come. This team can move the ball at will at times, when everyone is in sync, in a way we haven't seen before in Charlotte. Would also help if the defense could start getting off the field quicker and more often early in the game so we'll have a few more drives to get into a rhythm.

[shaqattaq]

 

The best part about the game is Norv is bright enough to have seen when the light switch for this offense went ON

It is nice to have on OC that will actually change things up when he realizes that we're getting our asses beat. Shula never could figure that out. As far as Ron, I think he's better at playing from behind because it forces him to be less conservative.