Ball Security Analysis

[The Huddler]

of all the things a QB could do to practice in the offseason, id think working on not fumbling is way down on the list (initially). Its also hard to simulate 250-300 pound freaks of nature coming at you trying to create a turnover

 

now that it IS an issue, i suspect there are things that could be done to prepare for and prevent the fumbles.  I think it will get cleaned up quite easily

 

 

btw, where the fug is @SIGCHI222??

 

so many old school posters dont post anymore and it makes me sad. 

[Carolina Mike]

I’m actually glad to see this post! Thanks for taking the time to put all this information together for us to see. I look forward to seeing who each QB is. 
 

I have a feeling it’s going to shock some people with the names listed. 

[Jacabee]

It's not great, but most of them are inexperience. He's trying to make thing happen, and he's done so to a 3-0 record. A standout mistake is Watt's flailing arm, as was the strip today rolling to the left. This is a problem that's coachable. I'd like to think this our offensive personal's specialty but damn, why is not fixed yet?  Also can we just hack the play where CMC throws out indefinitely.

[jfra78]

Hard to compare when sample sizes are different.  

[Tepper's Chest Hair]

I don't really care how Allen compares to other QBs historically with his fumble-itis.  I don't care how Allen compares to other QBs in the NFL with his fumble-itis.

I only care how Allen's go to move when anyone on the opposing team touches him is to cough up the ball.  Its not like we are giving up 8 sacks a game, and another 5 more QB hits..which causes 2 fumbles. 

I hold my breath any time a stiff breeze makes it way through the field right now.  Maybe I should get on the "make BoA a dome" side of the issue.  Allen has potential.  But if he can't stop his 2-3 potential turn overs.  Per game.  Then he will continue to be a major weakness on this team.  Regardless of win record that is clearly being defined by the play of CMC and the Defense.

[Khyber53]

Not knowing who the individual stats are from, the one thing we can take from this is almost all beginning QBs experience turnover/potential turnover plays in relatively high numbers, even some of the best. The best ones, you'd have to imagine, fix the problem(s) and that's what defines them.

Allen, at the moment, has a case of butterfingers when it comes to taking hits behind the line. He's not a huge guy and his college experience in taking hits isn't quite as extensive as many other starters because of his abbreviated college career and then back-up relegation. 

Otherwise, he's looking like a pretty good QB prospect, better than quite a few drafted ones out there now. The telling thing will be whether he can fix this potentially fatal flaw in his game. Coaching wisdom is that fumblitis is one of the easier ailments to fix, so we can at least hope.

[Varking]

10 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

With some here ready to praise Kyle Allen, others having come to bury him and many of us in the middle, I thought I'd take a quick comparative look at some ball security stats for several other NFL quarterbacks over their first two seasons.

I'm not adding names just yet (later) but I will tell you that my list is a mix of current players and retirees. Also, two of the QBs included are only in their second year, like Allen.

Couple of things to remember...

- Both interceptions and fumbles here are listed here because both are ball security related issues.
- The fumbles listed here are total fumbles, not just the ones that were lost but every time the quarterback listed put the ball on the ground, regardless of result (source: NFL.com).
- Fumbles are sometimes lost, but barring a fumble on the return, interceptions are pretty much always lost.
- All but two of the entries here list two full seasons worth of stats. Kyle Allen's full season numbers at this point would be projected.
- I included two seasons because, technically, Allen is in his second season (though in realty, his sample is smaller than any of the others).
- Beyond that though, I think it's better to look at trends rather than a single, isolated season.

So without further adieu, the list:

QB1: 16 Fumbles, 27 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 43
QB2: 8 Fumbles, 20 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 28
QB3: 15 Fumbles, 29 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 44
QB4: 27 Fumbles, 31 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 58
QB5: 13 Fumbles, 19 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 32
QB6: 13 Fumbles, 31 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 44
QB7: 19 Fumbles, 33 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 52
QB8: 9 Fumbles, 43 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 52
QB9: 23 Fumbles, 26 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 49
QB10: 19 Fumbles, 32 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 51

So what does it all mean?

You tell me. When you see these numbers, what does it make you think in regard to Allen's overall ball security?

Allen has 7 Fumbles in 3 games which is a 2.33 fumble per game clip right now. Factor that over 16 games for 37.33 fumbles a season. That in comparison to these guys above over 2 seasons 74.66 fumbles every two seasons. 

[shaka]

QB3 is Cam Newton

QB4 is Jake Delhomme

QB8 is Peyton Manning

 

Too lazy to do the rest

 

[trueblade]

7 hours ago, The Huddler said:

now that it IS an issue, i suspect there are things that could be done to prepare for and prevent the fumbles.  I think it will get cleaned up quite easily

Just one example of things that could be done (and are being done), the CBS broadcasters said they saw KA go over and do all the running back ball security drills during practice.

[TheRumGone]

8 hours ago, The Huddler said:

of all the things a QB could do to practice in the offseason, id think working on not fumbling is way down on the list (initially). Its also hard to simulate 250-300 pound freaks of nature coming at you trying to create a turnover

 

now that it IS an issue, i suspect there are things that could be done to prepare for and prevent the fumbles.  I think it will get cleaned up quite easily

 

 

btw, where the fug is @SIGCHI222??

 

so many old school posters dont post anymore and it makes me sad. 

He had inside info on Peppers and par for the course here got absolutely blasted by horrible posters and quit. SIG was a weird but good dude.

[CRA]

10 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

The rate at which he fumbles has to be unprecedented. The single season record is 23 and he's nearly a third of the way there through 3 games.

A Panther challenging another Panther record.  

[Mr. Scot]

1 hour ago, Varking said:

Allen has 7 Fumbles in 3 games which is a 2.33 fumble per game clip right now. Factor that over 16 games for 37.33 fumbles a season. That in comparison to these guys above over 2 seasons 74.66 fumbles every two seasons. 

You can't absolutely assume he's gonna continue at that pace and never improve though.

If you wanna assume that, then you also have to assume he'll continue to throw zero interceptions, which would be a huge stretch.

[logic1977]

15 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

You can't absolutely assume he's gonna continue at that pace and never improve though.

If you wanna assume that, then you also have to assume he'll continue to throw zero interceptions, which would be a huge stretch.

No but you have to assume something at this point. Given the huge disparity in sample sizes your stats are useless otherwise. They don’t really provide any context. 
 

maybe if you went back and pulled the other quarterbacks first four starts versus the entire two years would be better

[The Huddler]

31 minutes ago, TheRumGone said:

He had inside info on Peppers and par for the course here got absolutely blasted by horrible posters and quit. SIG was a weird but good dude.

Sig was vintage huddle....  he and I as well as many others were on here 2009+.. but are gone..  huddle was at its peak 2012/2013 and posters like @LinvilleGeorge were newbs or not even registered, but have now posted a poo ton and took over

 

people can talk poo about me, im 95% poo poster, but im vintage huddle, and helped direct the biggest huddle accomplishment aka Greatest Uniform of All Time

 

at the end of the day, if you have a post count on this site, or have a pie count, you are a dude trying to supplement true life failure with fake internet respect