Apparently the math says going for two was right

[Jeremy Igo]

Does the math take into account all of the variables of the moment? Weather, momentum, lack of run defense, etc?

[Shotgun]

11 hours ago, Bartin said:

It does. Analytics guys have been pushing for it for a few years. Personally I think it’s stupid, but I think Ron feels under the gun and is going to go by the numbers on analytics. It’s something like 55/45 to go for 2.

With a Rivera coached team, I guarantee the odds are worse. 

[hanklee89]

Found a note in this link interesting (From Jan 2017, so I'm sure some numbers have changed)

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/

 

"If you’re down 8 points after scoring a touchdown (with 10 minutes left), you should go for 2, because the difference between being down 7 points (if you make the extra point) and being down 6 points (if you convert the 2) is greater than the difference between being down 7 points and being down 8 points (if you miss the 2-point conversion). Note that this is backed up by the numbers but should also be apparent intuitively."

 

Rivera didn't mention it, but the weather might've crept into his mind a little bit with conditions quickly deteriorating. Needing 2 35-yard kicks in the snow vs 2 1-yard conversions might be worth looking at. 

[Cavscout]

13 minutes ago, Jeremy Igo said:

Does the math take into account all of the variables of the moment? Weather, momentum, lack of run defense, etc?

Does it take into account Green Bay 48% red zone scoring defense?

[DeAngelo Beason]

The only feather I'll put in Ron's cap on that decision is the snow.  Maybe he was paranoid about the kicker's footing?  That would be the only reasonable logic to use.

[lovelett]

9 hours ago, CMAC22 said:

Yet again when is the national sports media gonna hold ron rivera accountable and criticize him for making stupid in game calls that are just blame stupid? Belichick, Payton, Tomlin, Carroll, John Harbaugh, Andy Reid, and other great coahes would kick the PAT in that situation. Ron has cost this team alot of losses and the national sports media always gives him a pass no not anymore as a panthers fan enough is enough!

Not a chance the Ravens would. They are following analytics and percentages 100 percent of the time this year. You can argue that the others would or wouldn’t if you like.

[The Lobo]

Then why not go for it on that first drive around the 50? Why risk giving the ball back to Rodgers? 

[hanklee89]

New England uses analytics quite a bit, as well. Who can forget going for it on their own 28 yard line that time against the Colts? That was what, a decade ago? 

Philly also uses them a lot. Pederson loves going for it on 4th down and calls plays as such. 

[hanklee89]

2 minutes ago, The Lobo said:

Then why not go for it on that first drive around the 50? Why risk giving the ball back to Rodgers? 

They absolutely should have. Punting on 4th & 3 from the 42 is a bad decision. Fortunately, Palardy executed a punt that wasn't a touchback. 

[BrianS]

I hated the call at the time, but once I sat down and thought about it, it made sense.  There were a lot of factors there.

Think about the entire process.  You need two touchdowns + 2 points total to tie.  That part isn't negotiable.

By trying for two on both TD's, you actually give yourself more opportunities to experience a better outcome.  The conversion odds are 50%, so you have to feel like you're going to get at least one of them.

If you make the first one, then instead of needing a TD + 1 pt to tie, now the TD ties the game and a 1 pt kick wins it.

If you miss the first one, you try the second and either make it and tie, or fail it and lose.  Kicking extra points on both gives you NO chance to win.  Try for 2's gives you the only opportunity to win the game, and even odds on tying versus just kicking extra points.

[TheMostInterestingMan]

4 hours ago, GreensboroPirate said:

All the people who are saying, "fug the math", and making jokes about calculators

This is why you're 47, balding, and still working at Home Depot

 

Exactly this. It’s easy to bash RR now, but the decision actually makes perfect sense. The number of people on here who don’t understand why are pretty shocking to me. It isn’t hard to figure out why you would make this decision and doing at that time was actually the exact right time to do it 

[run-run-pass-punt]

I'm not against analytics informing your decisions...at all, but analytics are subject to error as well. I'd prefer a coach that utilizes the data along with a good understanding and feel for the game in the moment to make his decisions.

I would not have gone for two there.

[TN05]

4 hours ago, Jeremy Igo said:

Does the math take into account all of the variables of the moment? Weather, momentum, lack of run defense, etc?

The math works with standard conversion and EP rates. I assume you can plug in custom variables and get similar results.

[Ivan The Awesome]

I can't get mad at Ron for trying. The dude is trying to win the game. What happens if they make that 2 point conversion. This game is closer than it is. What happens if CMC stretches out and breaks the plane? We win that game. Had they gone for the XP it would still be a TD game. His boss wanted him to use analytics and he's showing that he is that is being progressive. For that I commend the guy. Unfortunately it did not go his way. But hey at least he tried. I prefer Riverboat over Conservative Ron any day.