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"No One Could Play Behind This OL"

kungfoodude

By kungfoodude,
in Carolina Panthers

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
Posted

I keep hearing this thrown around as if our OL is so bad that a quarterback would be physically incapable of performing behind it. So, I am going to take a look at some statistics to see how that notion holds up. So let's add some QB's to the pool with some common OL play metrics. NOTE: If an underperforming team has utilized multiple starting QB's this season, they will all be added to the spreadsheet. I am going to establish a MINIMUM OF THREE STARTS as the threshold for inclusion.

Bottom Five Team Pass Block Win Rates

28. Seattle Seahawks, 51%
29. Atlanta Falcons, 49%
30. Carolina Panthers, 48%
31. Cincinnati Bengals, 42%
32. Miami Dolphins, 41%

So, this would add QB's: Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Kyle Allen, Andy Dalton/Ryan Finley, Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen

Bottom Five Adjusted Sack Rates

28. Carolina Panthers, 9.1%

29. Miami Dolphins, 9.5%

30. New York Jets, 10.4%

31. Washington Redskins, 10.4%

32. Tennessee Titans, 12.4%

This would add these additional QB's: Sam Darnold, Case Keenum/Dwayne Haskins, Ryan Tannehill/Marcus Mariota

Bottom Five NFL QB Sacks Per Game

28. New York Jets, 3.6

29. Arizona Cardinals, 3.6

30. Tennessee Titans, 3.8

31. Carolina Panthers, 3.8

32. Miami Dolphins, 3.9

This would add these additional QB's: Kylar Murray

Bottom Five QB Hits Allowed

28. New York Jets, 90

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 93

30. New York Giants, 96

31. Atlanta Falcons, 106

32. Miami Dolphins, 118

This would add these additional QB's: Jameis Winston, Daniel Jones

 

This should be our final list of "Worst OL Play" QB's to compare:

Russell Wilson

Matt Ryan

Cam Newton

Kyle Allen

Andy Dalton

Ryan Finley

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Josh Rosen

Sam Darnold

Case Keenum

Dwayne Haskins

Ryan Tannehill

Marcus Mariota

Kylar Murray

Jameis Winston

Daniel Jones

 

To rank the QB's I am going to use the following: QBR, Pass TD %, Interception %, Completion %, Total Yards per Game, Total TD's per Game, Total TO's Per Game, Total Interceptions + Fumbles Per Game, DYAR, DVOA

Each category will be assigned a point value based on ranking(Best in category - 15 points, Worst in category - 1 point). 

This was the result:

QB_OL_Ranks.thumb.png.b63f5455507a57a713aa1ef126ac8559.png

 

 

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

Posted
Posted

Nice idea. Kudos.

I've said before that I don't think Ron Rivera believed a superior offensive line was necessary as long as you had a really mobile quarterback. There's reason to think Pete Carroll believes the same way. It's not unusual among defensive coaches.

Of course, if you try to stick a pocket passer behind a line like that, then you'd better hope they get the ball out really quick. Otherwise, they're gonna get slaughtered.

I'd throw in that even with a mobile quarterback, it's not an accident that our best season came when we had our best offensive line (2015).

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Jmac Grand Master

Jmac

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I keep hearing this thrown around as if our OL is so bad that a quarterback would be physically incapable of performing behind it. So, I am going to take a look at some statistics to see how that notion holds up. So let's add some QB's to the pool with some common OL play metrics. NOTE: If an underperforming team has utilized multiple starting QB's this season, they will all be added to the spreadsheet. I am going to establish a MINIMUM OF THREE STARTS as the threshold for inclusion.

Bottom Five Team Pass Block Win Rates

28. Seattle Seahawks, 51%
29. Atlanta Falcons, 49%
30. Carolina Panthers, 48%
31. Cincinnati Bengals, 42%
32. Miami Dolphins, 41%

So, this would add QB's: Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Kyle Allen, Andy Dalton/Ryan Finley, Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen

Bottom Five Adjusted Sack Rates

28. Carolina Panthers, 9.1%

29. Miami Dolphins, 9.5%

30. New York Jets, 10.4%

31. Washington Redskins, 10.4%

32. Tennessee Titans, 12.4%

This would add these additional QB's: Sam Darnold, Case Keenum/Dwayne Haskins, Ryan Tannehill/Marcus Mariota

Bottom Five NFL QB Sacks Per Game

28. New York Jets, 3.6

29. Arizona Cardinals, 3.6

30. Tennessee Titans, 3.8

31. Carolina Panthers, 3.8

32. Miami Dolphins, 3.9

This would add these additional QB's: Kylar Murray

Bottom Five QB Hits Allowed

28. New York Jets, 90

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 93

30. New York Giants, 96

31. Atlanta Falcons, 106

32. Miami Dolphins, 118

This would add these additional QB's: Jameis Winston, Daniel Jones

 

This should be our final list of "Worst OL Play" QB's to compare:

Russell Wilson

Matt Ryan

Cam Newton

Kyle Allen

Andy Dalton

Ryan Finley

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Josh Rosen

Sam Darnold

Case Keenum

Dwayne Haskins

Ryan Tannehill

Marcus Mariota

Kylar Murray

Jameis Winston

Daniel Jones

 

To ranking the QB's I am going to use the following: QBR, Pass TD %, Interception %, Completion %, Total Yards per Game, Total TD's per Game, Total TO's Per Game, Total Interceptions + Fumbles Per Game, DYAR, DVOA

Each category will be assigned a point value based on ranking(Best in category - 15 points, Worst in category - 1 point). 

This was the result:

QB_OL_Ranks.thumb.png.b63f5455507a57a713aa1ef126ac8559.png

 

 

Don't need stats and charts to know this Oline is one of the worst in the NFL.....my eyeballs show me all I need to know about this sh%t show. Thanks for the effort.

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BrianS Veteran

BrianS

Posted
Posted

That's a lot of numbers that don't tell me anything new.  I watch the game, our OLine looks terrible.  No need for a bunch of stats to show me what I can clearly see.  And it's not just pass blocking.  We can't really run block either.  If we could blow people off the ball in the run game, there are four games we would have won.

 

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BrianS said:

That's a lot of numbers that don't tell me anything new.  I watch the game, our OLine looks terrible.  No need for a bunch of stats to show me what I can clearly see.  And it's not just pass blocking.  We can't really run block either.  If we could blow people off the ball in the run game, there are four games we would have won.

We know what we know, but KFD is doing a deeper dive here and I believe he did so insightfully.

I think at the very least, we should appreciate the effort he took.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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Posted

So, this kind of shows that Kyle is performing(among teams included in the bottom five OL metrics) in the middle/middle low tier of the pack.

It seems to basically break down as:

Top Tier

Wilson, Tannehill, Ryan, Murray

Middle Tier

Keenum, Dalton, Mariota, Fitzpatrick, Winston, Darnold, Allen, Jones

Bottom Tier

Finley, Haskins, Rosen

 

So, for all of the shittiest OL's in the NFL, Allen is a low end average QB. Which, I would pretty much agree with that assessment. Right on the journeyman/back up line. 

 

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rippadonn Grand Master

rippadonn

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Nice idea. Kudos.

I've said before that I don't think Ron Rivera believed a superior offensive line was necessary as long as you had a really mobile quarterback. There's reason to think Pete Carroll believes the same way. It's not unusual among defensive coaches.

Of course, if you try to stick a pocket passer behind a line like that, then you'd better hope they get the ball out really quick. Otherwise, they're gonna get slaughtered.

I'd throw in that even with a mobile quarterback, it's not an accident that our best season came when we had our best offensive line (2015).

I'd replace "best" with "healthy". Something ain't right in the Panthers lunch room or strength and conditioning.

People have to take responsibility regardless but we can't seem to keep teh hog mollies on the field.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

We know what we know, but KFD is doing a deeper dive here and I believe he did so insightfully.

I think at the very least, we should appreciate the effort he took.

Yeah, it's kind of another case of the data pretty much backing up the "eye" test. It also indicates that poor OL play is not necessarily going to produce poor QB play, which is essentially has been my argument. Elite QB's and good QB's will still find a way to have success on the average.

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Sgt Schultz Grand Master

Sgt Schultz

Posted
Posted

Good analysis, thanks Kungfoodude.

What strikes me is I see a lot of experience in the top 3.  Wilson is probably the best I have seen at extending a passing play since Tarkenton, and he may well be even better at it.  So, for him a porous OL is just another day at the office.  Tannehill spent a lot of time running/ducking for his life in Miami.  It is probably a newer situation to Ryan, but he is capable of getting the ball out quicker (and abandoning progressions if need be) than somebody in their first or second year.

Other than Seattle, who has the exception case in Wilson who thrives under chaos in the pocket, there are a lot of bad teams on that list.  Bad OL play doesn't get you very far in the NFL....unless you have Russell Wilson or maybe a pre-2018 Cam Newton.

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

Posted
Posted
Just now, kungfoodude said:

Yeah, it's kind of another case of the data pretty much backing up the "eye" test. It also indicates that poor OL play is not necessarily going to produce poor QB play, which is essentially has been my argument. Elite QB's and good QB's will still find a way to have success on the average.

I'd agree, with the additional point thrown in that it shouldn't be an excuse to skimp in that area.

That was one of my biggest complaints with Ron Rivera.

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