Corona Virus

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, Tbe said:

By this fall, this will be normal for most.

This is the massive error in thinking most are having right now. I'd honestly call it mass delusion. This fall will kickoff the second wave of this poo. It's going to be a far cry from "normal".

[Wes21]

13 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

70% of the U.S. economy is consumer spending. Unemployment is probably going to hit 30%. You can't snap your fingers out of that either.

In the short term, yes you can.  And the reason why you can snap your fingers and make it happen, is because we snapped our fingers and made it this way.  Its much, much tougher to recover when we get into a natural recession.  The longer we stay in this man made recession, the closer we get to rolling into a natural recession.  Now THAT is what you can't snap your fingers and reverse.

[LinvilleGorge]

9 minutes ago, Wes21 said:

In the short term, yes you can.  And the reason why you can snap your fingers and make it happen, is because we snapped our fingers and made it this way.  Its much, much tougher to recover when we get into a natural recession.  The longer we stay in this man made recession, the closer we get to rolling into a natural recession.  Now THAT is what you can't snap your fingers and reverse.

Unemployment always takes the elevator down and the stairs back up. Unemployment numbers are already massive. 70% of the economy is consumer spending. That spending (and those jobs) aren't coming back immediately.

[Wes21]

10 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Unemployment always takes the elevator down and the stairs back up. Unemployment numbers are already massive. 70% of the economy is consumer spending. That spending (and those jobs) aren't coming back immediately.

The longer we stay in lockdown, the more we get into a natural recession and the more I agree with you.  But in the short term, yes, many jobs will come back the minute the lockdowns end.  

Think about it like this.  If every government said every restaurant and bar could open tomorrow, do you think there would be a normal slow trickle of bars and restaurants opening up, consumers very slowly going back to restaurants and bars over the course of the next couple years, and then a very slow hiring of restaurant and bar personnel over the next few years?  Because that's not what I see.  What I see is a RUSH to bars and restaurants and then tons of social media posts about how too many people were at X, Y or Z place (complete with photos).  And that's the difference that I'm talking about when I'm discussing a man made recession in the short term vs a natural recession over a longer term.

If you open gyms tomorrow, they aren't going to spend the next 5 years trying to build back up clientele.  And that's the difference between people cancelling their memberships by the millions naturally vs forcing them to not go to the gym.  

Edited May 17, 2020 by Wes21

[stirs]

Health Secretary says they are not seeing spikes in places that are reopening, but seeing bad trends in places that remain closed.  We will see how that fleshes out.

[LinvilleGorge]

You'll have to forgive me for not having a ton of confidence in numbers touted by a guy whose primary "contribution" to healthcare was participating in insulin price fixing to maximize profits. He's already shown he's fully willing to watch people die to make a buck. He should be in a prison cell beside Martin's Shkreli.

 

[stirs]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

You'll have to forgive me for not having a ton of confidence in numbers touted by a guy whose primary "contribution" to healthcare was participating in insulin price fixing to maximize profits. He's already shown he's fully willing to watch people die to make a buck. He should be in a prison cell beside Martin's Shkreli.

 

Numbers are numbers, no matter who touts or ignores.  Now, if the numbers are wrong....

 

Overall curve is definitely trending down

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Edited May 18, 2020 by stirs

[Paintballr]

3 hours ago, stirs said:

Health Secretary says they are not seeing spikes in places that are reopening, but seeing bad trends in places that remain closed.  We will see how that fleshes out.

How is that even possible 

[Wolfpredator]

I can see this tread turning pretty political pretty fast just reading over the last few pages.  Good luck to you all....I will remain uninvolved on this thread that should be squarely about the Carolina Panthers.  

[panthers1234]

9 hours ago, Wes21 said:

The longer we stay in lockdown, the more we get into a natural recession and the more I agree with you.  But in the short term, yes, many jobs will come back the minute the lockdowns end.  

Think about it like this.  If every government said every restaurant and bar could open tomorrow, do you think there would be a normal slow trickle of bars and restaurants opening up, consumers very slowly going back to restaurants and bars over the course of the next couple years, and then a very slow hiring of restaurant and bar personnel over the next few years?  Because that's not what I see.  What I see is a RUSH to bars and restaurants and then tons of social media posts about how too many people were at X, Y or Z place (complete with photos).  And that's the difference that I'm talking about when I'm discussing a man made recession in the short term vs a natural recession over a longer term.

If you open gyms tomorrow, they aren't going to spend the next 5 years trying to build back up clientele.  And that's the difference between people cancelling their memberships by the millions naturally vs forcing them to not go to the gym.  

They are going to be slowly coming back to restaurants and bars over the next few months. People are already trickling back to restaurants and bars. The amount of people who I've seen order take out is insane during this pandemic. Dude the vaccine will be out in the next 1-2yrs your timeline is wayyy off.  

[NanuqoftheNorth]

[Wes21]

1 hour ago, NanuqoftheNorth said:

I can't speak for "transit" in this area but the driving metric is close to what I've experienced where I live.  Things aren't quite back to normal but its definitely trending that way.

[TylerDurden]

Anyone think this could be the second wave we're currently in?  I've read many an article and even know some people directly who believe they may have had it back in December.  

I just find it hard to believe that as much as people freely travel that it wasn't here much earlier.  I suspect in a place like NY, that it was slowly percolating to the point that it got to now, and that took time.

Also, read an article out of the UK yesterday that a former director of WHO said he predicts the virus will actually naturally burn out on its own by the time that the vaccine will be available.

[jfra78]

12 minutes ago, Proudiddy said:

Anyone think this could be the second wave we're currently in?  I've read many an article and even know some people directly who believe they may have had it back in December.  

I just find it hard to believe that as much as people freely travel that it wasn't here much earlier.  I suspect in a place like NY, that it was slowly percolating to the point that it got to now, and that took time.

Also, read an article out of the UK yesterday that a former director of WHO said he predicts the virus will actually naturally burn out on it's own by the time that the vaccine will be available.

I am hearing a lot of this, and I hope its true.