Corona Virus

[LinvilleGorge]

No armchair MD'ing here. This stuff is way out of my wheelhouse. I'm simply passing along info from a personal friend who just so happens to be one of the nation's leading experts on this stuff.

[philit99]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Where are the massive outbreaks? Those viruses aren't very biologically successful.

They are both Coronavirus’ that preceded this one. We never developed a vaccine for either of the two former viruses. The point is can a vaccine be developed at all, if they are struggling to get a vaccination for the previous two iterations and had twenty years to make one.

Edited April 17, 2020 by philit99

[LinvilleGorge]

7 minutes ago, philit99 said:

They are both Coronavirus’ that preceded this one. We never developed a vaccine for either of the two former viruses. The point is can a vaccine be developed at all, if they are struggling to get a vaccination for the previous two iterations and had twenty years to make one.

Those viruses weren't very biologically successful and vaccine development is very costly, both in monetary terms and resources. The outbreaks didn't last long enough for the early vaccine efforts to come to fruition. 

[Car123]

1 hour ago, philit99 said:

They are both Coronavirus’ that preceded this one. We never developed a vaccine for either of the two former viruses. The point is can a vaccine be developed at all, if they are struggling to get a vaccination for the previous two iterations and had twenty years to make one.

Developers won’t make money from those vaccines. If they were highly contagious and deadly a vaccine would be developed.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Car123

[Paa Langfart]

42 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Those viruses weren't very biologically successful and vaccine development is very costly, both in monetary terms and resources. The outbreaks didn't last long enough for the early vaccine efforts to come to fruition. 

And from what little I have read and know about it, we are light years ahead of where we were during those outbreaks medical technology wise as far as drug/vacs development.

[TheRumGone]

Yeah they couldn’t get funding to continue those vaccines for those coronaviruses. This one will not have funding issues

[electro's horse]

6 hours ago, stirs said:

After suspicion of China cheating on numbers, they suddenly find 1300 new deaths in one day.

there's speculation that china's death toll was actually in the several 10s of millions. someone got to this number by the sudden cancellation of cell phones. 

long story short thats either the explanation or a bunch of click farms suddenly went offline. 

[CRA]

Following the SARS outbreak in 2003, researchers produced a vaccine that made it to phase one human trials, which test the safety of a new drug. But the effort never progressed further, mainly due to shifting research priorities as the outbreak came to an end, says Dr. Anthony Fauci, the longtime and current director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).

 https://time.com/5768956/wuhan-coronavirus-vaccine-treatment/

 

[LinvilleGorge]

14 minutes ago, electro's horse said:

there's speculation that china's death toll was actually in the several 10s of millions. someone got to this number by the sudden cancellation of cell phones. 

long story short thats either the explanation or a bunch of click farms suddenly went offline. 

Not even China can cover up tens of millions of deaths. We'll never get a real number out of them and I suspect the real number is significantly higher than the reported number, likely by several magnitudes but several 10s of millions? Nah, not a chance.

[electro's horse]

13 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Not even China can cover up tens of millions of deaths. We'll never get a real number out of them and I suspect the real number is significantly higher than the reported number, likely by several magnitudes but several 10s of millions? Nah, not a chance.

yeah there's also a poo load of weird things going on like someone just filming truck after truck leaving this factory in urns and extrapolated it to a similar number but obviously you're going down a rabbit hole there with a bunch of people you generally don't want to associate with

also morbidly if you told me 30 million died in india and they just didn't report it, after having lived there, i'd absolutely believe it 

[LinvilleGorge]

2 minutes ago, electro's horse said:

yeah there's also a poo load of weird things going on like someone just filming truck after truck leaving this factory in urns and extrapolated it to a similar number but obviously you're going down a rabbit hole there with a bunch of people you generally don't want to associate with

also morbidly if you told me 30 million died in india and they just didn't report it, after having lived there, i'd absolutely believe it 

Just do the math. Even if everyone in China contracted the virus and we figure an overall 2% mortality rate of the infected (not confirmed infected, but overall infected), that's 27M dead. The virus just isn't lethal enough to kill tens of millions in China.

[Ja Rhule]

59 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Just do the math. Even if everyone in China contracted the virus and we figure an overall 2% mortality rate of the infected (not confirmed infected, but overall infected), that's 27M dead. The virus just isn't lethal enough to kill tens of millions in China.

China healthcare and sanitation are trash.  Factor in decades of polluted air and severe respiratory disease among Chinese, It likely be higher than 2%.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Ja Rhule

[LinvilleGorge]

8 minutes ago, Ja Rhule said:

China healthcare and sanitation are trash.  Factor in decades of polluted air and severe respiratory disease among Chinese, It likely be higher than 2%.

Even if it is substantially higher than 2% in China, that 27M figure was assuming literally ever last person in China was infected which certainly is nowhere near the case. Let's say 20% of the Hubei Province became infected and they experienced a 10% mortality rate. That adds up to roughly 1.2M. Then lets say 5% of the rest of China became infected (which I think is highly unlikely given China's lockdown of the Hubei Province) and they experienced a 5% mortality rate as their medical facilities weren't overrun. That adds up to another 3.2M. That's a total of 4.4M. 

I have no problem assuming China's actual numbers are several, perhaps even many magnitudes greater than they're reporting. I think several magnitudes higher is highly likely. But tens of millions? Nope, not even coming close to buying that. 100k dead in the Hubei Province though? Honestly, that wouldn't terribly shock me.

[Tbe]

Considering how contagious this is and the population density there, you have to believe a ton of people died or were critical before authorities even grasped what was going on.

Either that or they knew what the virus was and that it was out very early. If so, I wonder how they figured it out so fast? *sarcasm*

Edited April 17, 2020 by Tbe