So Kellen Mond anyone?

[Shocker]

12 minutes ago, Verge said:

So when mentioning percentages (I am stupidly bad at math) here is what I mean 

32 NFL teams 
15 "franchise" QBs (guys who are the no question starter and elite/borderline elite at their position) 
12 of those 15 "franchise" QBs were 1st round picks 
The other three were selected in the 3rd, 4th,  and 6th (wonder who that could be)

So the very simple math is (god I hope I got this right) says 80% of the NFL franchise QBs in NFL are in the first round. There is a very distinct reason for this. So when you really break down the numbers, the chances of you finding a franchise QB after round one, especially lately, is pretty darn low. Investing capital into it is fools gold. Unless you do hit, which in that case is insanely lucky and makes me look like a complete jackass. If you really want a quality backup QB, just go pay a vet 5 million dollars, draft capital is worth so much more. 

Quick, do one on high first round QBs that have busted completely 

[Mr. Scot]

28 minutes ago, Verge said:

Lol yep for sure

B-A-N-A-N-A... Sh-t! Wrong metaphor

(damn song stuck in my head now)

Edited March 27, 2021 by Mr. Scot

[Verge]

2 minutes ago, Shocker said:

Quick, do one on high first round QBs that have busted completely 

Uhh okay. I suck at math Shocker, but I'm bored on a Saturday. I'll do 2014-2019 in a 5 year timeframe for relevancy. 

So since 2014 (not including 2020 obviously): 
19 QBs drafted in the 1st round. Of those 19, 9 ended up busts. Leaving you with a 47% bust rate. 

As far as after the 1st round you have:
51 QBs drafted, 0 franchise QBs, and 5 starters. Leaving you with a 0% franchise QB rate (obviously not the case, just recent history) and a 9% chance of ending up with a starter. 



 

[Shocker]

6 minutes ago, Verge said:

Uhh okay. I suck at math Shocker, but I'm bored on a Saturday. I'll do 2014-2019 in a 5 year timeframe for relevancy. 

So since 2014 (not including 2020 obviously): 
19 QBs drafted in the 1st round. Of those 19, 9 ended up busts. Leaving you with a 47% bust rate. 

As far as after the 1st round you have:
51 QBs drafted, 0 franchise QBs, and 5 starters. Leaving you with a 0% franchise QB rate (obviously not the case, just recent history) and a 9% chance of ending up with a starter. 



 

Thanks for the effort but 5 years?  LOL

Too limited a sample size to drive home that point.  There are more first round QBs that have busted than have been quality starters.  I could build a list but that’s just common knowledge.

Edited March 27, 2021 by Shocker

[Verge]

Just now, Shocker said:

Thanks for the effort but 5 years?  LOL

5 years is recent trends. A QB drafted 10 years ago is not in the same mold or scouting relevancy as a QB drafted in 2021. Scouting is more accurate and QB evaluation has evolved. Recent trends are what you look at. No team is going back to 2012 and asking where they went wrong on the draft board. Teams are asking how are they going to get the next Patrick Mahomes. 

[Shocker]

12 minutes ago, Verge said:

5 years is recent trends. A QB drafted 10 years ago is not in the same mold or scouting relevancy as a QB drafted in 2021. Scouting is more accurate and QB evaluation has evolved. Recent trends are what you look at. No team is going back to 2012 and asking where they went wrong on the draft board. Teams are asking how are they going to get the next Patrick Mahomes. 

Thats fine we just disagree here.  Agree that all those past misses has definitely helped these GMs identify weaknesses.  The draft will always be hit or miss especially at QB.  At any given time there are like 15-20 people on the planet that can do NFL QB well.

Edited March 27, 2021 by Shocker

[Varking]

3 hours ago, Shocker said:

How bout we grab Pitts at 8 and Trask in round 2?  Not kidding.  At worst Trask could be a nice backup here for a long time.  I don't  hate him in round 2 honestly seeing how desperate we are right now.

The way he improved last year was impressive IMO.

If we grab Pitts in round one I’d really like a lineman in two. I could definitely see there being a QB drought in round 2 before they get picked again in round 3. I don’t mind taking developmental QBs in round 3 and later. I just want to shoot for starters in rounds 1 and 2. 

[Pup McBarky]

3 hours ago, Verge said:

So since 2014 (not including 2020 obviously): 
19 QBs drafted in the 1st round. Of those 19, 9 ended up busts. Leaving you with a 47% bust rate.

I'd argue it's higher than 47%, simply because of the draft capital spent. If you use a first round pick, you want a franchise QB. If you get a starter...say, Teddy Bridgewater...I'd say that qualifies as a bust. Trubisky...did you consider him as a starter or bust? I'd argue he's a bust, again, especially given the capital used to get him. What about Jameis Winston? Marcus Mariota? Neither are franchise QBs, both have started. Given they went 1 and 2, I'd consider them both busts.

Edited March 27, 2021 by Pup McBarky

[jayboogieman]

4 hours ago, Verge said:

Well yeah, but this forum is looking for the answer in the 2nd-3rd round. Not happening. That is where you find the quality backups. Which again, is something we can't really afford IMO.

 

4 hours ago, Verge said:

Why draft a guy in the 2nd round only to have to trade up next year to draft yet another QB in the 1st? Makes no sense. You are really playing with negative percentages doing that and ultimately risk throwing yet more draft capital out the window for QBs. 

Makes way more sense if you are really into trying to find a QB to trade our 2nd pick away for future picks in order to have ammunition to move up the next year. Not that I see that happening with us. 

The Panthers are in year two of a rebuild. There is a ton of time left to groom a non first round QB if they want to go that route since they warned it would take five years to rebuild. With the timeline the team has said they are on, there is no need to draft a QB in a later round and then in the first the very next year. If they can groom the guy into a quality backup or starter, they win. If the later round QB doesn't pan out, they still have their draft picks to keep building the team for when they decide to move up like the Chiefs did.

Of course, this is all mute if they are hellbent on drafting a QB in round one regardless of price this year.

[Martin]

Don’t like Mond at all, only seen a few games but he is all over the place. If he was a starter for only one season, I could see him as having upside, but he has started 45 games, he is who he is, and that is not worth wasting a 2-3 rounder on. This is Will Grier all over again.

One QB I could see taking a chance on in round 3 or later is David Mills from Stanford. High upside with limited play time due to injuries, looked awesome on his pro day. 

[Shocker]

14 minutes ago, Martin said:

Don’t like Mond at all, only seen a few games but he is all over the place. If he was a starter for only one season, I could see him as having upside, but he has started 45 games, he is who he is, and that is not worth wasting a 2-3 rounder on. This is Will Grier all over again.

One QB I could see taking a chance on in round 3 or later is David Mills from Stanford. High upside with limited play time due to injuries, looked awesome on his pro day. 

Mills has some talent but if you watch full games he misses the strike zone wildly at times.  Injury history too.  Gotta vet his leadership qualities and command of the huddle.  He is a hot name so he probably goes day 2 but maybe not once teams get their guy.

[Shocker]

3 hours ago, Varking said:

If we grab Pitts in round one I’d really like a lineman in two. I could definitely see there being a QB drought in round 2 before they get picked again in round 3. I don’t mind taking developmental QBs in round 3 and later. I just want to shoot for starters in rounds 1 and 2. 

Sounds good...so maybe round 3 for Trask?  I would like to get him here even as a backup.  He is ascending and 69% comp, 4200 yrds with 43 TDs vs 8 picks in the SEC on a big stage?  Big dude too.  I like Trask as a developmental guy.  He was a difference maker for Fla last season and I didn’t see game manager at all.  Dude played the bowl too when many dude checked out.

I love how he has worked himself into a player.

Edited March 27, 2021 by Shocker

[Panthers Rhule]

On 3/26/2021 at 7:00 PM, Ricky Spanish said:

Anyone?

I can see us taking LT at 8 and then moving back into the late first to take him. 

Better or worse than Jones? Do we want this? Am I trying to convince myself things will work out?

hold me.

I'm slowly starting to think it may be worth a shot. I wouldn't want to trade back into the first for him and hope that wouldn't be necessary but I would consider drafting him. Chris Simms has him as his 4th best QB in the draft for what that's worth. 

[Panthers Rhule]

6 hours ago, Shocker said:

Sorry but I find this incredibly short sighted.  We can afford a quality backup after round 1 and one of those guys probably end up making it while a top 10 guy will fail miserably.  It has happened many times.

Also, if the guy turns out to be at least serviceable, we may still need to look for a long term solution it's true, but it would allows us to move on from Teddy's cap hit for a player that costs very little. Sure we still need the long term solution but we have an extra 20+mil to make the rest of the roster better. That would be worth the pick, wouldn't it?