Panthers likely trading back in the first

[Panthers Rhule]

I don't know why some are acting irritated and calling these 2 posts click bait and stating the obvious that all teams are talking about different scenarios of trading up and or down. Yes, we know they all do it but we haven't really discussed either very much and now that the draft is getting nearer and perhaps clearer, the different possibilities are starting to show themselves and I personally think it's time to start considering these possibilities/opportunities more seriously. 

We're currently discussing in great detail our preferences at pick 8. I think it's clear that we have 3 different camps that have a preference for their "perfect" scenario as well as what they see as an acceptable or unacceptable alternative depending on how the board falls.  

There has been some, although more quiet, suggesting or at least questioning the possibility of a trade back and what they could mean and there hasn't really been a deep discussion on that idea so why not now? It is a real possibility depending on how the board pans out on draft night. I for one am happy that we are preparing for every scenario and getting an idea of what may or may not be possible if x, y or z happens or any combination thereof. I'm sure most teams if not all are doing this to some degree or another. I hope and also believe that we are probably on the extreme end of this planning as if nothing else, this staff does seem really sincere about exploring each and every opportunity available either realistically or theoretically. 

So, let's be honest. How many people have ran at least 1 (and probably many more) mock on PFF where we accepted the trade downs offered? I know I have done many same as I've ran mocks controlling multiple teams to set up drafts in different ways just to see how they may play out. I'm sure our staff has done the same though probably not on PFF. 

I did one just about 3 hours ago actually. It was the BIG offer from the Bills. I received their 2022 2nd and 3rd round picks, recovering what we traded away for Darnold (which is something I'm pretty sure we are intending to do do in at least some way), plus a 2nd and 3rd this draft. Now I doubt such a trade would happen but it's just for the sake of discussion. In that mock, I was able to get 5 picks in the top 100 plus pick 113 as well as getting next seasons picks back up to 7 total. 

Now obviously this is an extreme example but it helps puts things onto perspective. Beyond recovering next seasons 2nd, although probably a lower value than ours would have been we did move up from our 4th and into the 3rd. so they balance out pretty well. We did have to move down to 30 so that is a significant drop but we also gained 2 additional picks this draft and high ones too. We lose out on 1 of the most likely to be elite players ( thought not necessarily) and what did we get?

At 30 CB Ifeatu Melifonwu. Potential starting CB who could also play safety. The type of player we might have targeted in the 2nd round if we didn't trade but perhaps a better prospect than what would have been available at 39. The actual player isn't as important in this discussion as what it represents. Swap player with whomever you like. The point is the possibility of getting a late first round talent at a position of need. There are several possibilities likely even at 30. We could even use a pick or 2 from the original trade to try to move back up higher in the first if that's what we wanted to do. The main advantage to this trade is having 7 picks in 2020 and/or something more in this draft. 

Pick 39 Dillon Radunz and pick 61 Elijah Moore. Here we have 2 players who at positions we would likely consider at pick 8. They aren't as strong of prospects of course but they are still solid prospects and could potentially play the same roles. It's like when we drafted Chinn in the 2nd instead of Simmons in the first. Same type of player but considered a weaker prospect. In the end I think we are all happy with how that turned out. The odds of that happening with both of these players is low but it could happen and even if it doesn't, they could still be good. Radunz is the athletic LT who could also play OG instead of Slater and Moore would be the fast, play making slot WR with return capabilities instead of Waddle. 

Then at 73 we have OT Jalen Mayfield and at 93 Brevin Jordan. Because of the extra pick given to us by trading down, we hade the luxury of double dipping not just the OL in general but also 2 players who could also play OT. In this situation we have 2 players who could become our LT of the future. Both bring versatility and at the very least depth at extremely important positions. Radunz could also perhaps be an improvement at OG if he doesn't win the LT job, Mayfield can play both OT spots and if he plays well, could be safety net at RT if he doesn't win the LT job. If they both pan out it offers us a lot of flexibility with our roster in 2022 and could create cap savings or future trade possibilities. Jordan would be the Y TE and playing a similar, (although likely lesser) role that we would want from Pitts at 8. He's less of a WR than Pitts ofc but could be used in the same way. TE depth for sure, double TE sets or lining up outside on 3rd downs or in the Redzone. Having Arnold and Jordan on the field at the same time could cause defenses serious match up problems in those scenarios. 

Then we still have our 4th round pick at 113 where we could perhaps find our rotational/depth 3 tech DT like Tuipulotu or someone else. Perhaps a safety? 

Basically, any trade down opportunity should definitely be considered. Rhule stated in his last presser that team value could be greater than individual value. Recovering 2020's picks must be considered as well as the possibility of adding 1 or 2 improvements to the line up of having just 1 elite player. For a team in rebuild, even if it's a rebuilding team trying to win at the same time like we are, such trade scenarios could be very beneficial for us long term.  I'm sure we would like to become a team that has multiple picks to work with every season moving forward. At the moment we are in a deficit here but smart trade downs could begin to slowly reverse that situation and keep adding depth. As the season get longer depth only becomes more and more important. 

I personally hope that we can eventually reach the point where we are actually able to trade away players with good value the year before their contacts end. Once we have a solid depth chart, we can st up a draft pattern that will allow us to constantly have the next man up at positions so that we never have to overpay good players out of necessity and always get valuable assets for those players instead of watching them go for nothing in return. 

 

 

 

 

[LinvilleGorge]

I would LOVE a trade down opportunity that netted an additional 1st next year. We bet on Darnold. Fine. But we need to hedge that bet. Heavily. If we aren't taking a QB at #8, trade back and try to net an additional #1 next year to put ourselves in better position to make a move on a guy like Sam Howell or Spencer Rattler next year if Darnold doesn't work out - which let's be honest, history indicates that's pretty likely. Even doing that, I still wouldn't be surprised to see us take a guy like Davis Mills or Kellen Mond if they're there in the 3rd. QB is just THAT important. You have to keep swinging until you find one. If you end up with more than one, even better. Flip one for additional assets down the road.

 

[CarolinaRideorDie]

I think it would be foolish to make a pre-draft trade without knowing what prospects are available at 8. Don't outsmart yourself by trading back to miss out on a blue chip player. There's a greater chance of hitting on a pro bowl/All Pro player in top 10 compared to outside of top 10. 

I remember we traded back with Jets and got Jon Beason and Ryan Kalil which were great players for us, but the Jets got an All Pro CB and potentially HOF in Darelle Revis. 

[Panthers Rhule]

2 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I would LOVE a trade down opportunity that netted an additional 1st next year. We bet on Darnold. Fine. But we need to hedge that bet. Heavily. If we aren't taking a QB at #8, trade back and try to net an additional #1 next year to put ourselves in better position to make a move on a guy like Sam Howell or Spencer Rattler next year if Darnold doesn't work out - which let's be honest, history indicates that's pretty likely. Even doing that, I still wouldn't be surprised to see us take a guy like Davis Mills or Kellen Mond if they're there in the 3rd. QB is just THAT important. You have to keep swinging until you find one. If you end up with more than one, even better. Flip one for additional assets down the road.

 

I would be ok with taking a QB in this draft but not in the first. Mills or Mond would be ok but I really doubt it happens. I now there are some who really want to draft a QB but honestly, after the Darnold trade, I doubt we look at a 1st round QB until at the earliest 2023. We basically just drafted Darnold. It's a different situation than Teddy and I don't believe Rhule chose Teddy but he did choose Darnold so he will at least get half of a rookies chance to prove himself (his remaining 2 years of his rookie deal) before the attempt to seriously look for another.  So a good back up plan like Mills or Mond I could see as possible but Howell or Rattler in the first next season or a qb in the first this season I honestly just can't see it.

[Pejorative Miscreant]

A lot of conjecture at this point but at the end of the day it is a wait and see type scenario.  Trading away the pick with on Sewell the board is different than trading away the pick with say D. Smith being next man up( just an example for clarity). Don’t think the final price is set til the clock is ticking.  

[hepcat]

3 hours ago, joemac said:

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!  Am I the only one around here who HATES the idea of trading back in this particular draft?  We likely will not be picking this high in the first round for quite some time.  Also, this year is weird as there will be 3 or 4 QBs selected kin the first 5 picks.  We will almost have our choice of any non-QB stud player.  So, why not just take our next CMC or Luke at 8 and call it good?

If you can get a first next year from another team you do it.

[bobcat91]

Depends on who is available at 8, how far back we would go and what we could get in compensation. Too many moving parts to worry right now. 

[electro's horse]

i have never hated a predraft process more than this one

[LinvilleGorge]

37 minutes ago, Panthers Rhule said:

I would be ok with taking a QB in this draft but not in the first. Mills or Mond would be ok but I really doubt it happens. I now there are some who really want to draft a QB but honestly, after the Darnold trade, I doubt we look at a 1st round QB until at the earliest 2023. We basically just drafted Darnold. It's a different situation than Teddy and I don't believe Rhule chose Teddy but he did choose Darnold so he will at least get half of a rookies chance to prove himself (his remaining 2 years of his rookie deal) before the attempt to seriously look for another.  So a good back up plan like Mills or Mond I could see as possible but Howell or Rattler in the first next season or a qb in the first this season I honestly just can't see it.

We signed Teddy to a pretty significant contract and cut bait after one year. I don't think we're at all married to Darnold. If he sucks we'll go fishing again pronto.

[BurnNChinn]

I don’t see us trading back, I think that is a big smoke screen 

[stirs]

Trade back with the Redskins

[Mr. Scot]

1 hour ago, PantherMan89 said:

Agreed on taking one at 8. Also, unless something changed and I missed it Philly has the 12 pick so would be going down 4 spots instead of 2. 

You're correct. My mistake.

[LinvilleGorge]

Just now, BurnNChinn said:

I don’t see us trading back, I think that is a big smoke screen 

Word is that Rhule wanted to trade back last year and Fitterer comes from an organization that routinely trades back to get more picks. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if we're going putting out the word that once we're on the clock, hit us up with your offers because we're not married to making a pick at #8.

 

[Mr. Scot]

Ideal Draft Day scenario is that one of the top quarterbacks or another really hot (non-OL) player falls to pick #8 and more than one team calls with offers.

In that situation, you can leverage the two teams against each other to get the best package possible.