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The Jimmy Johnson Trade Value Chart


The Jimmy Johnson Trade Value Chart  

34 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you use the Jimmy Johnson chart as your primary tool for evaluating draft pick trades?

    • Yes, it's the standard
    • No, but I still use it along with other measures
    • No, I use other models instead


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I think this is an interesting question as it relates to Scott Fitterer's habit of trading back: what is everybody's view of the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart? It's widely reported that plenty of NFL teams still use it, but it's around 30 years old. More recent attempts to value draft picks, such as the Thaler-Massey study and the Chase Stuart chart have mostly found that Jimmy Johnson's chart overvalues the picks at the top of the first round. If the Panthers trade down, will you primarily use the Johnson chart as your measure of whether or not we "won" that trade?

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More times than not most of the trades are fairly close to the JJ chart. 

Of course sometimes a team will pay a premium, especially if a QB is involved.  For example I could see Atlanta receiving a premium for the 4th pick if the draft fell a certain way.

What i find interesting is that most studies that I have seen favor trading down, even with the JJ chart which as you say values top picks less.  Of course there are exceptions but overall history tells us trading down is better.

DG use to say he didn't want to trade a quarter for 2 dimes.  In reality you are probably trading a 15 cent piece for 2 dimes.

 

 

 

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Most trade value charts are based off Jimmy's, so while I voted "no, others" his chart set the standard that others modeled theirs after.  Truth be known, there are only subtle differences anyway.  Most start at 3000 and work the way down to 1.  The biggest difference with the contemporary charts is the 7th round is basically weighted the same where Johnson's still placed value throughout the round.

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This year will destroy the validity of this chart.  I clicked, "NO" above because I did not realize that this was the Jimmy Johnson chart.  Yes I use it to gauge fairness.

Shows you how brilliant Johnson is.  I hated him because he coached teams I spent a lifetime hating--Miami (college) Miami pros, and Dallas. 

But I love him on TV, along with Aikman and Romo (who is starting to fade) so go figure. And when he hosted my coach on a fishing trip to allow him to pick his brain, I now am  a JJ fan.

What that tells you about Rhule is incredibly encouraging as well.

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If the Chase Stuart chart was right they would have only needed to trade their 2nd to move up from 12 to 3. Heck, the 3rd they did trade (with 2 more 1sts), would have been enough to go to 4 or 5.

I think while the others are used to value actual picks and likely take into account when players bust, the JJ chart (and the similar variations) are more realistic for what trades actually happen.

That’s why I’d take that rumored WFT trade. It would be potentially great for us.

 

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Its similar to PFF, its a decent gauge. Thing is change happens. Example- the 45th pick in every new draft may hold a different value. Depends on when the talent drop happens. Rookie scale, at one point you could not trade the 1st overall without adding millions in the deal, no one wanted to pay a rookie top 5 pay day one. 

This year showed what the 3rd overall pick was worth, vastly more than previous years. QBs make the chart worthless at times. Plus if you get the player you highly value/want, so what if the chart shows you give a extra 14 points/future 6th/etc. You got a player that you think is a difference maker, who cares you "lost" by adding a extra 7th...

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I think this chart is the starting point.  Some years the early picks will be worth more, depending on how many teams are trying to move up, some years less, but they probably average close to what this chart has.  In other words, this is the base value before an increase in demand happens, like this year with people salivating over four QBs and a handful of others.

But, if you are looking to move up and your initial offer is in line with the chart, the other team is probably not simply going to hang up on you. 

I didn't vote because I don't really evaluate any trades that happen, I just accept them.....sometimes considering the source.

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13 hours ago, AU-panther said:

More times than not most of the trades are fairly close to the JJ chart. 

This ^^^.  I have a million bad things to say about JJand his "genius drafting" but I can't fault his chart.  So many trades fall in line with his chart that I have no reason to ever seek out a different chart.  The only thing I feel I have to add is I am willing to deviate from the chart based on the situation.  Its funny when I meet a "numbers guy" who has the position that you can never deviate from the chart.  Their desire to find another chart is because they feel they have to have some quantifiable number to validate a decision they make.  Its a weird existence that I can't relate to, but more power to those people.

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Recent trades at the top of the draft have been blowing traditional draft pick value charts out of the water. IMO, the new rookie wage scale has drastically altered the value of those picks. You're no longer paying those guys as if they're one of the best players in the entire league before they step foot on an NFL field. For the talent level, you're getting tremendous cap value out of those picks while also not mortgaging the future of your franchise by saddling yourself with tremendous cap liabilities on a talented, albeit unproven NFL prospect.

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