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Draft Analysis: "A massive value-destroying error"?

PanthersATL

By PanthersATL,
in Carolina Panthers

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MadHatter Rookie

MadHatter

Posted
Posted
On 5/14/2021 at 3:11 PM, top dawg said:

I agree about Lawrence, but we don't know if Wilson was in that equation. And though some might want to argue, Lance could have easily been in that equation as well (or not). The only thing we know for sure is that Jones and Fields didn't make the cut.

I agree.  I had just heard that we really like Wilson but did not like the other 3 better than Darnold.

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MadHatter Rookie

MadHatter

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12 hours ago, CPsinceDay1 said:

I want my team to win it all, and I hope Sam proves me wrong by doing so. But I've been against Sam his whole career, I had him for his rookie year in a fantasy league. I hope PJ passes him on the depth chart. While I think about that, would PJ get the same support had Rhule decided not to trade for Sam, and stuck with PJ as the starter???

So when PJ is the starter bc Sam sucks, and we start winning again, only then will I take full credit for being right.

I believe you wrong to think Sam is a bust because of his environment, I believe he's a bust because Sam himself sucks.

Zero chance PJ ever is anything more than a 2nd or 3rd string qb.

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MadHatter Rookie

MadHatter

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On 5/14/2021 at 11:41 PM, SizzleBuzz said:

 

What are the underlying reasons for his "lack of consistency"...??

By definition "lack of consistency" dovetails with poor decision making...

...the root cause?

Cleary athletic ability is abundant, so is it lack of intellect?

Something else?

Zero weapons around him...incompetent front office and coaching staff....in short The Jets.  Their franchise has been a train wreck in every aspect for decades.

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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43 minutes ago, MadHatter said:

I agree.  I had just heard that we really like Wilson but did not like the other 3 better than Darnold.

Word was that Tepper and some others in the building liked Fields, but Fitterer and Rhule didn't like him as much as Darnold.

Rhule talking about how low the hit rate for first round QBs is would seem to confirm that story.

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sharkkiller Rookie

sharkkiller

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What I don't get in this chart or article is this.

Saquon Barkley is the biggest miss because they took him over Sam Darnold.

We now have that same Sam Darnold on our Roster. But we were supposed to take Fields to replace him. So which is it? You can say Sam Darnold is great in one line of your chart, and then say he needs to be replaced in another. 

This article is stupid.

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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I swear some people don't even read the articles then they comment on said articles.

The focus isn't about which players help a team more from a production standpoint, that would be more based on something like WAR (wins above replacement), they are looking at cap value.

Since everyone is trying to turn this into a Darnold vs Fields vs Horn type of argument lets take the QB out of the example.  Lets use LT and RB.  LTs are the second most valuable position based on the metric they use.

They basically looked at the median price of non rookie contracts since 2014.  

The yearly cost of the #8 pick is around $5.3m.

The yearly cost of the median contract of LTs is $14.7m.

The yearly cost of the median contract of RBs is $3.08m.

If you draft a LT and he turns out average its still a decent pick in some ways.  If you draft a RB and he turns out average you are wasting money.

I'm not saying the article is the be all strategy for drafting but some of the logic is sound.  I said it before the draft, one reason I like drafting tackles early is they are so expensive in free agency.  

Would you prefer to flip a coin for $3 or $15?  With a QB the difference is even higher. 

If anything the article presents a very good case for us drafting a OT instead of Horn, which a lot of people around here wanted.  

If you want to talk about which players contribute more to winning, then that would be a different article probably based on something like WAR but this was most cost based.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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