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Draft Analysis: "A massive value-destroying error"?


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Here's some analysis about HOW MUCH VALUE DO TEAMS LOSE WHEN THEY DON'T DRAFT A QB IN THE FIRST ROUND:  
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-value-do-teams-lose-when-they-dont-draft-a-quarterback-in-the-first-round/

The article focuses on Fitterer and Rhule's decision to draft Horn instead of Fields.  There's a bunch of number crunching and talk about a quarterback's draft value vs drafting other positions. Those Huddlers who like to dig into stats and numbers will probably like those parts.

 But here are some other excerpts from the piece:
 

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Last week, Rich Eisen asked Panthers head coach Matt Rhule about Carolina’s decision to select Horn over Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields or Alabama quarterback Mac Jones, and his response was interesting. “I think those other young quarterbacks are gonna be fantastic players, but the hit rate on first-round quarterbacks isn’t real, real high,” Rhule said.

Rhule isn’t wrong.

 

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Quarterback hit rates in the first round aren’t amazing, as Rhule said, but they’re higher than in any other round of the draft. And when they do hit, quarterbacks hit big. We’re talking franchise-changing bigness. What’s that worth to a team, exactly?

 

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Fitterer’s selection of Horn this year was the 12th most destructive pick of the past decade.  Regardless of your personal evaluation of Fields as a player, it seems clear that passing on a quarterback — any first-round quarterback — was a massive, value-destroying error for Carolina. And we don’t need three, four or even five years to say that with confidence.

 

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It's a QB league now.  

It's why the Jags would part with Ramsey and the Packers will let Rodgers take a massive dump on them and pretend he didn't.   

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6 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

this article cracks me up.... look at this table... not sure they could say the wrong decision was made when you have a lot of talent on this table that was taken over a QB. for examples the most destructive pick is Saquan Barkley and he was taken in front of Sam Darnold. Then you have Devin White who was taken in front of Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins..... I mean cmon!image.thumb.png.a40603263d370b71023d00f3ef5febf0.png 

they used too many words to say something simple.

Drafting a player that turns into the best RB or DB in the entire NFL....doesn't actually mean anything in today's NFL.  That isn't how you go about winning in today's NFL.   Those are complimentary pieces to your QB driven team. 

The key to real and lasting NFL success is finding a QB.   Nothing really matters until you find one.  Can you win without one? Maybe.  But it generally is a one year fluke and you are right back to not mattering. 

 

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Just now, TheCasillas said:

What I am referring to is that they dont have the data to support their argument. If the player you drafted is better than any of the QBs that come after... then is it really an "error?"

The data just doesnt back it up.

they tried too hard. 

But the general idea is right and not a new hot take. 

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Posted (edited)

Agree or disagree, Rhule believes Sam is just as good as Fields or Jones which is why they picked Horn. We will see if this was the right decision soon. 

Edited by thennek
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Just now, CRA said:

they tried too hard. 

But the general idea is right and not a new hot take. 

It's just frustrating when people try to use data to support a slow period narrative. Especially when you look at this table without the narrative. No one would come away with the mentality of "Maaaan the Gians and Bucs made huge mistakes by drafting Barkley and White instead of Darnold, Haskins, and Jones!"

 

It needs a long winded article to drive little to support of the opinion of the writer.

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3 minutes ago, travisura said:

This is all based on player potential by position. If Horn becomes a perennial pro-bowler and Fields doesn't live up to the hype do we really call it a failure? 

If Horn becomes a Pro Bowler and Fields becomes a Pro Bowler.....it becomes a massive and epic failure.  Just because of the impact positionally.  Doesn't really have anything to do with the specific players mentioned. 

What is the hit rate on first round DBs vs first round QBs? Pretty bad on both.  Like everything else.   But if you don't have a QB...the QB scratch off ticket is generally going to be the right call over any other spot in the first.  Hindsight is hindsight.  Hindsight can make anything dumb. 

But it's not a good article. 

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Even the greatest of QBs don't get a ring each year. QB is the most important position on a team, but it's not the end all be all deciding factor. 

The biggest deciding factor on success for a team is something they have little control over... injuries. 

Still, it's hard to sit back and say look at how good the guy we picked is playing while a QB you could have had is lighting it up out there. 

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