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Over/Under Win Total(s) for Carolina

CarolinaLivin

By CarolinaLivin,
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CarolinaLivin Grand Master

CarolinaLivin

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Both BetMGM and VegasInsider have set the Panthers' win total at 7.5 for the season which is about where it should be. In my way-too-early game-by-game predictions, I have Carolina getting off to a sizzling 5-2 start before fading out in the second half of the season and finishing 7-10.

How can the Panthers go OVER 7.5 wins?

Analytically, the Panthers have the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL. They have several games in the first half of the season that are very winnable and if they get off to a hot start and rack up 5-6 wins in their first 8-9 games, they will have no trouble getting to at least eight wins.

How can the Panthers go UNDER 7.5 wins?

The final four games of Carolina's schedule are absolutely brutal.  They go to Buffalo, host Tampa, and then end the year with back-to-back road games at New Orleans, and Tampa. If they get to this four-game stretch with just four or five wins, it will be extremely difficult for them to go over the total. Heck, even six wins may not be enough going into that stretch. 

 

My opinion:  I think we will have a strong start to the season starting with week 1 vs. the Jets. 9-8 is very realistic and could very well be our record and could be enough to get us a wild-card game come playoff time. A lot of people have written off the Panthers for the last few games of the season. Not sure how much truth there is to this, but I believe Darnold has historically played his best football in the second half of seasons. Hopefully he can get comfortable in our offense early in the season with some lighter defensive matchups and build his confidence.  

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CarolinaLivin Grand Master

CarolinaLivin

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1 minute ago, Smithers said:

I just don’t see the Saints as being a “brutal” matchup. Same with Tampa really - we will play them tough and Brady could still hit that wall at any time

I've said this in a previous thread... we can sweep the saints and/or atlanta, all just depends on our QB play this year. 

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CarolinaLivin Grand Master

CarolinaLivin

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Just now, BlitzMonster said:

Jameis Winston may keep that Saints offense rolling along so they probably won't be easy to sweep.  

 

I'd say 8 or 9 wins for the Panthers in 2021.  Which would be fine.   A big improvement over last year.  And something to build on for 2022.  

Idk.. when they drafted Ian Book, it maybe made me believe they aren't as confident as I thought in Winston being able to fill those big shoes. I could be wrong though

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NanuqoftheNorth Grand Master

NanuqoftheNorth

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Pragmatic Take:  Based on what we know at the moment, which isn't a lot, I'd go with an 8-9 or 9-8 outcome. 

Optimistic Take:  11-6  Young players over achieve and team surprises w/two or three wins late in the season.  Playoffs?

Pessimistic Take:  5-12  Black Cat Curse Strikes Again.  Rhule is a fool, Darnold is a dud and the Panthers end the season with more questions than answers.  

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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1 hour ago, CarolinaLivin said:

Both BetMGM and VegasInsider have set the Panthers' win total at 7.5 for the season which is about where it should be. In my way-too-early game-by-game predictions, I have Carolina getting off to a sizzling 5-2 start before fading out in the second half of the season and finishing 7-10.

How can the Panthers go OVER 7.5 wins?

Analytically, the Panthers have the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL. They have several games in the first half of the season that are very winnable and if they get off to a hot start and rack up 5-6 wins in their first 8-9 games, they will have no trouble getting to at least eight wins.

How can the Panthers go UNDER 7.5 wins?

The final four games of Carolina's schedule are absolutely brutal.  They go to Buffalo, host Tampa, and then end the year with back-to-back road games at New Orleans, and Tampa. If they get to this four-game stretch with just four or five wins, it will be extremely difficult for them to go over the total. Heck, even six wins may not be enough going into that stretch. 

 

My opinion:  I think we will have a strong start to the season starting with week 1 vs. the Jets. 9-8 is very realistic and could very well be our record and could be enough to get us a wild-card game come playoff time. A lot of people have written off the Panthers for the last few games of the season. Not sure how much truth there is to this, but I believe Darnold has historically played his best football in the second half of seasons. Hopefully he can get comfortable in our offense early in the season with some lighter defensive matchups and build his confidence.  

I am going to withhold predictions until after Training Camp. I think given the turnover rate on the OL and at QB and on the defense, I want to see how those look early.

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KSpan Grand Master

KSpan

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I see 7.5 as the reality-based O/U line on paper at this point. As bad as Teddy was in one-score game-tying/winning situations, 3 of the wins were also one-score (and a 4th was only by 10) so I see the regression-to-the-mean as cancelling each other out a bit. Call me pessimistic but I'm not expecting magic from Darnold - improvement in crucial situations vs Teddy and thank God the team moved on, but not wholesale magic this year - and I think the improved defense nets an extra win or two. Pie-in-the-sky ceiling IMO is 11-6 and a wild card.

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