The Bubble Boys of Offense

[MHS831]

Thought I would take a look at the players on the offense that are on the bubble.  I am sure this is subject to change, and it is really nothing new--but it is interesting in that I give rationales for each decision.  I am tired of people saying, "Christensen is going to have to beat out Little..."  and crap that tells me they are just looking at rosters and making stupid guesses.  This features players I feel are locks for the roster and predictions for those on the bubble:  roster spot, PS, release, etc.

Offensive Line: (10 spots expected, possibly 9)

Bubble boys

o   Greg Little:  The only way he makes this team is if Christensen moves to Guard, Erving has to play C, and Scott is left as the starting LT.   Little is a long shot at best with no demonstrated effectiveness and no position flexibility. He is a Hurn scar. (5% chance)

o   Dennis Daley:  As injury prone as he is, his versatility may save him.  He can play LT, RT, or LG.  I think he makes the team if we keep 10 or put Dave Moore on the PS-where he will not stay. I think we keep 10, so Daley should be safe (90%)

o   Dave Moore:  It is going to take a decent camp, but the SR Bowl may have been his camp.  I think they love his grit, his long arms and low anchor.  I seriously think they might want him to play center in 2022.

o   Deonte Brown:  I know we all think this was a steal, but is he a good fit?  Is he going to be merely for goal line and short yardage?  I do not think so because I think he can move better than people realize, and at 370 lbs. the SR Bowl was not his best look.  They are already talking nutritionist and his ideal playing weight, so I think they feel that they will have to slim him down another 15 lbs before they know what they have in him.  I think he can do it. I think his lapses came when he was tired from carrying too much weight, and if you get him in shape, you have a stud RG who can move if needed.

Roster LOCKS (7): Erving, Christensen, Scott, Elflien, Paradis, Miller, Moton; Brown, Moore, and Daley. (predicted to complete the OL roster at 10). Once the roster settles down and we understand who is starting and who can back up which positions, this number could drop to 9. 

Tight Ends:  (3)

o   Colin Thompson:  Thompson is 27 or so and was decent as an all-around #3 TE.  The problem was he was a #3 TE behind Manhertz and Thomas.  (30% chance of making the roster, IMO)

o   Stephen Sullivan: Sullivan has some time left on the PS, but remember, Fitterer likes him—he was the first Fitt signing. More of a pass catching TE (converted WR from LSU) our goal line woes from last season were not unnoticed.  (50% chance of making the roster; 40% chance of being assigned to the PS; 10% chance he is cut).

o   Ian Thompson:  I suppose in year four he could make a bit of a splash, but it really is not there.  With a $2m cap savings to set him free, I think it is likely that Ian is cut. (Chance of making roster is about 20% at best).

Roster LOCKS (2): Dan Arnold, Tommy Tremble, Stephen Sullivan wins the third spot. (We really do not have any blocking TEs to put on the PS to back up Tremble, so it is likely that we put one of the new FBs we signed Stokie or Daniels on the PS to serve as that blocking back for the wide zone runs.)

Fullbacks (0):     I think we use Tremble in this role and keep a FB on the PS in the event Tremble cannot play.

o   Mason Stokke:  (Comments from Wisconsin pro day): “He tested out really well and showed on the field what kind of blocker/weapon out of the backfield he can be and some team is going to look really smart if they take a flyer on him on Day 3 or as an undrafted free agent.”  This suggests that he could do what Tremble does in a backup role.  About the same size, has hands, and can block effectively.

o   Mikey Daniel: Former Falcon, had a good career as a RB at SDSU, and is a good pass protector. The Falcons did not keep him, fwiw, and he has PS eligibility.

Roster Locks (0): Stokke goes to PS to back up Tremble and provide a fullback if needed.  He has a shot at a roster spot.  I see his skill set to be a better fit from this perspective than Daniel.

Wide Receiver:  (6)

o   Omar Bayless: Unfortunately, there are about 5 WRs on this team that can do what Bayless does, just a bit better.  He is worth a look as a developmental player, but we can do that on the PS and not the roster.

o   Brandon Zylstra: If we keep 6 WR spots on the roster,  Zylstra brings a bit of experience and some special teams versatility.  Last year, the 28-year old played in all 16 games (58% of the special teams snaps), he started 2 games, and played 12% of the offensive snaps.  All other WRs on the roster---Micah Simon, Marken Michel, Ishmael Hyman, Ventrell Bryant, and Omar Bayless qualify for the PS. So do you keep your sixth WR on the PS in Bayless or do you keep him on the roster playing on special teams like Zylstra?  I admit that I do not know what ST abilities the other WRs have or what the Panthers need, so this is nearly impossible to predict right now.  AND  if you keep hybrids like Stephen Sullivan (TE/WR) and Tommy Stevens (QB/TE/Wildcat/Slot), do you need 6 WRs on the roster?  I doubt they keep fewer than 6, but special teams ability and position diversity will decide this matter, and I do not have enough info to guess.

Roster LOCKS (5): DJ Moore, Rob Anderson, Terrace Marshall, David Moore, Shi Smith; Brandon Zylstra with the last WR spot. Kirkwood is the dark horse, and I forgot to include him above.   (Bayless to PS)

Running Back: (3)

o   Rodney Smith  Smith quietly had a solid season last year in a very limited role.  He had about 150 yards on 44 carries last season in 7 games and another 60 yards in receiving.  His average per carry was about 3.8 yards.  Nothing special, but he should be safe depth on the PS.

o   Trenton Cannon Cannon was decent last year, and pretty good on special teams with a nearly 30-yard per kick return average (10 attempts).  But he will be 27 and has a career rushing average of around 3 yards per carry.  Not good enough to make the team.

o   Reggie Bonnefon When healthy, Reggie has been an asset, averaging 6.6 yards per carry in 2019 and 2020.  He will be 25, and is considered to be a good wide zone RB.  A former QB, he offers a wrinkle Rhule / Brady may like. Not great at pass pro.

o   Spencer Brown Was a good zone scheme RB in college and might have a shot at the PS.

Roster LOCKS: Christian McCaffery, Chuba Hubbard; Reggie Bonnefon wins the 3rd spot.  (Rodney Smith to PS)

Quarterbacks: (3)

o   Will Grier  A lot of people have written off Grier, I have not quite yet, but he needs a great camp and preseason or he is gone.  No Stevens may not be the answer, but if he can play close to Grier’s level, and he can so far, he gives you more versatility and options.  (Hurn scar)

o   Tommy Stevens For a third teamer who can contribute on offense as a wildcat back or slot, he could help the Panthers offer a Taysom Hill wrinkle or serve as the #4 TE or #6 WR.

o   Peyton Ramsey  Ramsey has a shot at the PS, and that is about it. If we keep a player like Stevens at #3, he could be a safe fourth QB and one that is needed for practice.

Roster LOCKS (2)- Sam Darnold, PJ Walker; Tommy Stevens (Ramsey to PS)  No idea how this may pan out.  Sure they want to see him in preseason.

 

PRACTICE SQUAD

• Peyton Ramsey QB
• Rodney Smith RB
• Spencer Brown RB
• Omar Bayless WR
• Mason Stokke FB

TOTAL: 25 roster spots, 5 on Practice Squad (may add another OL from another roster)

 

Have some fun with it.  Be nice---I have children for Christ's sake!

Edited May 23, 2021 by MHS831

[BlitzMonster]

The practice squad consists of 12 players in 2021.  So a few more marginal guys can hang around.

NFL roster rules 2021

[kungfoodude]

Basically how I have it, as well. Great thread again, @MHS831.

[mrcompletely11]

PJ Walker is a roster lock?

[45catfan]

Daley should be a lock as a backup as he can play guard and tackle on either side.

[45catfan]

2 minutes ago, Trainwreck said:

Tremble may be as a FB/HB. I think Thomas is safe right now with Arnold.

FB/HB can be split out wide in a single set or empty backfield.  I doubt we run many 'I' formations with a two in-line TE look.  We don't need to keep Thomas around for such rare occasions, if any.

[ForJimmy]

18 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

PJ Walker is a roster lock?

I would think so. Experienced vet that played a couple games last year (one looked solid and one terrible). He is way more mobile that Grier and has a better arm. Who else would be the backup QB?

[Khyber53]

My only argument might be PJ Walker. Just didn't see him lock down QB2 or even QB3. I think they'll release him and stick with Ramsey or pick up one of the journeymen backup QBs that are always milling about during training camp waiting for some team to give them a call.

 

[ForJimmy]

It all makes sense to me. FWIW I think that has the makings of a solid practice squad... Ramsey, Smith, and Bayless are all guys who can eventually get roster spots in my opinion.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Peyton Ramsey is not on our roster, he was only a tryout guy who we did not sign. 

[Michael G]

Sheesh...When I did my RB/FB thread I forgot about Spencer Brown. (Sorry Spence)

That final WR spot(s)will be a real battle. I doubt Bayless goes to the PS- the FO had doubts about his ability to clear waivers Last Year and if he shows out again it in Training Camp/OTAs will be more of the same. The problem is that neither would Shi Smith and Zylstra might not even if he was eligible for it. I'm not sure Zylstra is safe, especially if one of these guys (or a backup CB, Safety, or RB) proves that they can give about the same level of production as he did on Special Teams. Like you said there is a lot we don't know about some of the other options so there's no telling whether or not one of them might surprise and win a spot.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Michael G

[bythenbrs]

15 hours ago, MHS831 said:

I have children for Christ's sake!

Which ones are locks and which are bubble?  

[bythenbrs]

15 hours ago, stbugs said:

Thomas isn’t close to safe. That $2M+ salary with little dead cap isn’t safe at all.

This.  Thomas has a $2M bullseye on his back.  Buh bye!

[kungfoodude]

17 hours ago, 45catfan said:

Daley should be a lock as a backup as he can play guard and tackle on either side.

If he can't stay healthy, versatility is pretty useless.

Edited May 24, 2021 by kungfoodude