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Darnold and the Panthers Running a Top 10 Offense (According to NEP Metrics)

CarolinaLivin

By CarolinaLivin,
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CarolinaLivin Grand Master

CarolinaLivin

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Link: https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/39982/nfl-week-3-power-rankings-which-teams-are-separating-from-the-pack

Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams after two weeks of games.

 

 

Team Record nERD nERD
Rank 		Rank
Change 		xWins
Next 3
49ers 2-0 3.70 5 1 1.8
Panthers 2-0 3.80 4 11 1.8
Buccaneers 2-0 5.42 3 2 1.8
Bills 1-1 5.88 2 6 2.1
Rams 2-0 6.80 1 1 1.9


The Carolina Panthers are easily the most surprising team in the top five, four of which are from the NFC. Carolina's second straight win, this one over the New Orleans Saints (last week's top-ranked team), helped them surge from a 0.47 nERD and a 15th-place ranking to a 3.80 nERD and a 4th-place ranking. Sam Darnold is running a top-10 offense by our NEP metrics, but it's their defense that leads in success rate allowed.

The Rams were the obvious choice for the top slot after the Saints were pummeled in Week 2. The Rams' offense is sixth in success rate, yet their defense is bottom 10 thus far. It's something to keep an eye on, but it's impossible to argue with the results through two games.

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CarolinaLivin Grand Master

CarolinaLivin

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Just now, joemac said:

Top 10 offense, Top 3 defense is recipe for a DEEEEEEP playoff run.  I love the fact that we just have absolute studs on both sides of the ball.  First round/second round picks everywhere.  

I fully expect our defense to remain Top 5.

As for offense, If we can clean up those one to two bone-headed classic Darnold plays I think offense can stay top 10... of course thats if the team continues on its current path of cleaning up mistakes and growing chemistry. Oh and of course our fantastic trainers and medical team, can't forget them!

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Proudiddy Grand Master

Proudiddy

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I took a statistics course in college and despite finishing with an A in it, it perfectly demonstrated to me why I could never pursue a career in it.  My God, it was mind-numbing...  and yet, I know there are people who absolutely love it, and I appreciate them, because if nit for them, I wouldn't look at any advanced metrics or attempt to understand them.  That being said, I don't fully get all of them, like this one, but I will happily take it. 

It's crazy that, despite all of our struggles on that side of the ball, we still have a Top 10 offense.  I have said though, that I expected some hiccups early, but if we could win as Sam was still getting comfortable, we/he will only get better as the season goes on.

I love it.

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Jon Snow Grand Master

Jon Snow

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26 minutes ago, Proudiddy said:

I took a statistics course in college and despite finishing with an A in it, it perfectly demonstrated to me why I could never pursue a career in it.  My God, it was mind-numbing...  and yet, I know there are people who absolutely love it, and I appreciate them, because if nit for them, I wouldn't look at any advanced metrics or attempt to understand them.  That being said, I don't fully get all of them, like this one, but I will happily take it. 

It's crazy that, despite all of our struggles on that side of the ball, we still have a Top 10 offense.  I have said though, that I expected some hiccups early, but if we could win as Sam was still getting comfortable, we/he will only get better as the season goes on.

I love it.

I had to take one statistics course in college for my engineering degree. It made little sense to me also. 

fug a bell curve. That is all I have to say about that.

 

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