Kenny Pickett at 5/6

[davos]

I'm asking this out of sheer curiosity, not so much promoting him as our target QB. I know people are already attaching Rhule to Pickett, which is unfortunate because Rhule sucks.  But if we step back for a moment and just look at Pickett and his season, what could we be getting?  

I get many to most want to establish the OL first and foremost (I don't disagree) and without a 2nd or 3rd rounder, it will be even more difficult.  As things stand, we're picking 5/6 and then 105.  It sucks.  Hoping Henderson can work out and we can basically consider him a draft pick but the 2nd for Darnold hurts combined with it.

The trade down discussion is easy to throw out but I think it will be difficult in our spot.  Maybe we could do something with a Pittsburgh or Denver and get a OL+Corral/Ridder type combo but there's a lot of extenuating factors.  

So my questions aside from the OL situation and Matt Rhule as our coach (for now):

Is Pickett a viable #6 Overall pick? Corral? Anyone else?

And second: How would you go about building the line without trading down and landing a QB at #5/6?

PROFILE:

6'3 220 LBS

Hometown: Oakhurst, NJ

23 years old

40-Time ~4.77-4.8 range

CAREER STATS (Top 2021 to bottom 2017):

CMP	ATT	CMP%	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	LNG	RTG
334	497	67.2	4,319	8.7	42	7	67	165.3
203	332	61.1	2,408	7.3	13	9	75	129.6
289	469	61.6	3,098	6.6	13	9	96	122.4
180	310	58.1	1,969	6.4	12	6	78	120.3
39	66	59.1	509	7.7	1	1	74	125.8

WRITE-UPS

 Per the Draft Network (tried to fix this formatting/pardon the large font):

Quote

Ideal Role: Starting quarterback 

Scheme Fit: Spread

FILM EVALUATION

Written by Joe Marino 

Games watched: North Carolina State (2020), Clemson (2020), Virginia Tech (2020), Florida State (2020), Tennessee (2021), Clemson (2021), Virginia (2021), North Carolina (2021), Miami (2021), Duke (2021)

Best Game Studied: Duke (2021)

Worst Game Studied: Clemson (2020)

Accuracy: Pickett’s ball placement improved incrementally throughout his career at Pitt and was terrific in 2021, especially down the field. He does well to place the ball in favorable positions for his receivers to produce yardage after the catch. He isn’t without an occasional misfire (primarily misses high), but the consistency he found putting the ball on his targets in 2021 was a big reason for his ascension. 

Decision Making: There’s a lot to like about how Pickett blends an aggressive, gunslinger’s mentality and playing within the rules of the play. He generally picks good spots to take chances and for the most part, goes to the correct place with the football within his progression. With that said, he can be overconfident in both his arm talent and pocket mobility and he isn’t immune to some risky decisions with the football. 

Poise: Having been able to see such a large sample size of Pickett that spans several seasons, his growth in terms of command and confidence are tremendous. He’s a fiery competitor that brings notable toughness to the table. He is more than willing to hang in the pocket, face pressure, and battle to keep plays alive. He is extremely accomplished in terms of late-game heroics. 

Progressions: One of my favorite components of Pickett’s glow up in 2021 is that it didn’t come with cheap production. Pickett was tasked with being a progression-style passer and he worked them, showcasing good anticipatory skills and the ability to exhaust progressions. His comfort surveying the field and letting it rip is impressive. 

Release: It’s impressive how Pickett marries everything together in terms of his upper and lower half, combined with his decision-making and overall sequencing with his process, which leads to a very consistent release. He has multiple clubs in the bag and knows how to use them. He is efficient. 

Pocket Manipulation: Pickett has good mobility and movement within the pocket and he’s comfortable navigating while keeping his eyes down the field. He isn’t often guilty of leaving a clean pocket and he almost always looks comfortable with how he negotiates the pocket. Perhaps there are some instances of him being too comfortable in the pocket, but he never appears bothered by chaos around him. 

Arm Strength: Pickett won’t be confused as having a rocket launcher attached to right shoulder, but he has good arm strength. He frequently slots the football on outbreaking routes to the field and zips the ball into windows with good velocity. He is a terrific vertical passer that doesn’t have to dig deep to find the juice needed to drive it down the field. 

Mobility: Pickett isn’t a “sneaky” good athlete that can work off-script and rip off chunks of yards with his legs, it’s obvious that he’s an athlete when watching him play. Pickett has easy movement skills and twitch that helps him navigate the pocket, but also has the athleticism to work outside of structure and scramble. While he wasn’t often used on designed runs at Pitt, his mobility is a notable strength of his game and he picks his spots well in terms of when to take off with the football on a passing play. 

Leadership: Pickett’s command and confidence running the offense is notable. He is the most accomplished quarterback in Pitt history, which includes the likes of Dan Marino and Alex Van Pelt. He has engineered numerous fourth-quarter comebacks and it’s obvious that he’s taken ownership in his growth and maturation as a player.  

Mechanics: Pickett does a good job of getting himself aligned to throws, which leads to consistent results. His process is synched up, but he’s also able to speed up his process when necessary and find a quick platform and trigger to get the ball out. There are no glaring concerns when it comes to Pickett’s mechanics. 

Prospect Comparison: Joe Burrow (2020 NFL Draft, Cincinnati Bengals)

SCOUT GRADES

TDN Consensus: To Be Determined

Joe Marino: 86.00/100 (First Round Value)

 

HIGHLIGHTS:

 

My conclusion is that if we select him, I won't be disappointed.  I will no doubt wonder how the hell we build a line for him if Rhule is here and pray he doesn't get ruined.  I just see a lot more potential than plenty of guys taken around the same area.  He had a Burrow type ascent and I don't see why he couldn't come in at a decent level.  Looks a hell of a lot more ready than Zach Wilson for example, I don't see a ton of question marks.  Just seems like a solid QB I don't think we should brush off because of Rhule's history with him or the fact that we have a dogsh*t OL situation.  

 

Again I prefer an OL first approach, but if he's the pick, there will still be a lot to be excited about.

 

Cheers. 

[MHS831]

Personally, I think we will try to build the OL in free agency and we will take Pickett.  Not sure how I feel about it. 

[Waldo]

No idea what happens right now. I know if this crew picks a QB I have zero faith we won't be looking for another one when they are finally fired. Hell that might he true for the oline picks also. 

[frankw]

Draft a QB and let him sit. Build the OL with the remaining picks and FA and in the meantime let Sam Darnold earn that 19 million dollars the hard way.

[WOW!!]

Kenny Pickett is a 1 year wonder  1 year younger the Sam Darnold.. It took him 5 years to have that 1 good year.. In most years with good QB prospects he would be a 2nd or 3rd round pick.. 

This would be a horrible pick for us for many reasons.. Beyond the major red flags of hes older his arm isn't elite, he is a okay athlete and it took him 5 years to be a draft worthy prospect..

1. The coaching staff that might be doing the pick..

2. Picking  him eliminates adding day 1 starting talent for the Oline..

3. Since he is not a great prospect.. Like a Lawrence, Wison , Lance or Fields.. Yours forcing a QB on your next coaching hire he might not want..

[WOW!!]

3 minutes ago, frankw said:

Draft a QB and let him sit. Build the OL with the remaining picks and FA and in the meantime let Sam Darnold earn that 19 million dollars the hard way.

Every year.. There always a reason in this forum to not do the safest  and most needed thing.. And make another glamour pick... This poo never fails..

Sit him for who?? Why is it smart to have a lame duck staff making a QB pick for the incoming staff?? Especially in a low rated QB class??

[davos]

11 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Personally, I think we will try to build the OL in free agency and we will take Pickett.  Not sure how I feel about it. 

That's what I'm thinking and trying to reconcile.

If it happens and we keep Rhule hoping that:

(A) He can look good and to be the future

&

(B) without Rhule & his version of an NFL OL ruining him

It would be good for a new coach (if Rhule isn't canned and a rookie is his last hurah/he's gone after 22') that our selection at least seems promising and could have a Eagles type situation with Hurts.  

[bigskypanthersguy]

5 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Personally, I think we will try to build the OL in free agency and we will take Pickett.  Not sure how I feel about it. 

I will always favor trading down and trading that center that was mentioned here a day or two ago.  Please, for the love of god, start finally building the interior oline properly and that includes getting the best available prospects.

We really need a new Ryan Kalil and at least a new Wharton.  I'm willing to give Christensen another couple years to see if he can grow into the role.

[Shocker]

7 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

Kenny Pickett is a 1 year wonder  1 year younger the Sam Darnold.. It took him 5 years to have that 1 good year.. In most years with good QB prospects he would be a 2nd or 3rd round pick.. 

This would be a horrible pick for us for many reasons.. Beyond the major red flags of hes older his arm isn't elite, he is a okay athlete and it took him 5 years to be a draft worthy prospect..

1. The coaching staff that might be doing the pick..

2. Picking  him eliminates adding day 1 starting talent for the Oline..

3. Since he is not a great prospect.. Like a Lawrence, Wison , Lance or Fields.. Yours forcing a QB on your next coaching hire he might not want..

[Daddy_Uncle]

If we ignore olinemen again, I'm done. We will be in a great position to get a stud to help build the oline around. It doesn't matter who our QB is until our Oline is built up. If they/you haven't figured that out yet, then idk what you've been watching the last near decade

[Captain Obvious]

Fug this team if they don't go O line.

[davos]

8 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

Kenny Pickett is a 1 year wonder  1 year younger the Sam Darnold.. It took him 5 years to have that 1 good year.. In most years with good QB prospects he would be a 2nd or 3rd round pick.. 

This would be a horrible pick for us for many reasons.. Beyond the major red flags of hes older his arm isn't elite, he is a okay athlete and it took him 5 years to be a draft worthy prospect..

1. The coaching staff that might be doing the pick..

2. Picking  him eliminates adding day 1 starting talent for the Oline..

3. Since he is not a great prospect.. Like a Lawrence, Wison , Lance or Fields.. Yours forcing a QB on your next coaching hire he might not want..

Fair enough.  So no to being worth it? (and no other QBs in R1 for ya?)

 

[frankw]

3 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

Every year.. There always a reason in this forum to not do the safest  and most needed thing.. And make another glamour pick... This poo never fails..

Sit him for who?? Why is it smart to have a lame duck staff making a QB pick for the incoming staff?? Especially in a low rated QB class??

If you don't agree that's cool keep it pushing then. It isn't my fault these decision makers folks here previously fawned over thought it was a good idea to go all defense one draft then corner the first pick on the next and then proceed to stockpile more corners. We have to take a qb this year or next regardless of the oline. Direct your ire where it belongs.

[davos]

1 minute ago, Daddy_Uncle said:

If we ignore olinemen again, I'm done. We will be in a great position to get a stud to help build the oline around. It doesn't matter who our QB is until our Oline is built up. If they/you haven't figured that out yet, then idk what you've been watching the last near decade

Not the premise, prefaced the entire thing by saying that's a known and preferred method to build.