Jump to content
  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Alright screw it, take Pickett


RumHam
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, BlitzMonster said:

One more takeaway from Icege's QB list:  most every year had at least one or two good QB's.

Even 2014, which seemed like the worst of the bunch, had Teddy Bridgewater.  He may be limited in a lot of ways but Bridgewater can game manage OK.    Maybe 2015 had none with Jameis Winston currently a FA.  

But almost every class has talent.  It's all about finding the guy who's a good fit for your system and developing him correctly.  

 

Ice stopped at 2014. 2013's draft class was terrible top to bottom. There's a chance 2022 is every but as bad a QB class as 2013's. 

  • Beer 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, BlitzMonster said:

One more takeaway from Icege's QB list:  most every year had at least one or two good QB's.

Even 2014, which seemed like the worst of the bunch, had Teddy Bridgewater.  He may be limited in a lot of ways but Bridgewater can game manage OK.    Maybe 2015 had none with Jameis Winston currently a FA.  

But almost every class has talent.  It's all about finding the guy who's a good fit for your system and developing him correctly.  

 

Absolutely. I think a lot of thought though is it's a waste of a pick for a game manager. Lots of people seem to think it's franchise guy or bust...but don't spend the pick unless you are 1000% certain it's a franchise guy. The way I see it, if it's an upgrade, then take a guy in the first round. If you can upgrade again next year or the year after, do that. Right now, we need an upgrade over Darnold. I'd love to see us on the cusp of playoff contention over this poo we're in right now.

  • Beer 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, trueblade said:

Ice stopped at 2014. 2013's draft class was terrible top to bottom. There's a chance 2022 is every but as bad a QB class as 2013's. 

You are right !  I just looked at 2013 and here's what I found:

               
  1 16 Buffalo Bills EJ Manuel  QB Florida State ACC  
  2 39 New York Jets Geno Smith  QB West Virginia Big 12  
  3 73 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Glennon  QB N.C. State ACC  
  4 98 Philadelphia Eagles Matt Barkley  QB USC Pac-12  
  4 110 New York Giants Ryan Nassib  QB Syracuse Big East ]
  4 112 Oakland Raiders Tyler Wilson  QB Arkansas SEC  
  4 115 Pittsburgh Steelers Landry Jones  QB Oklahoma Big 12  
  7 221 San Diego Chargers Brad Sorensen  QB Southern Utah Big Sky  
  7 234 Denver Broncos Zac Dysert  QB Miami (OH) MAC  
  7 237 San Francisco 49ers B. J. Daniels  QB South Florida Big East  
  7* 249 Atlanta Falcons Sean Renfree  QB Duke ACC

That's a pretty wretched list.  Some years really don't have any talent.  

  • Beer 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In light of the new information and other insightful comments, I'll amend my earlier conclusion. 

As Luciu5 says, a game manager QB isn't really worth a high pick.  The opportunity cost is not worth it to pass on a super talented guy (DE, LT) who could be a game-changer.  

So it looks like 2013, 2014 and 2015 all have QB that are best skipped.   The key is to only draft a FRANCHISE QB and they just don't come along every year.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, Shocker said:

WTF is up with the edit window here?  Is that to just fug with us or what?  Why not make in like 5 mins.

I miss the Preview Post button. 😞

I have absolutely brutal ADHD (if you couldn't already tell from how I waterboard folks with walls of text) and even after re-reading something multiple times I'll still inevitably find an error that I missed T_T

  • Beer 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, BlitzMonster said:

In light of the new information and other insightful comments, I'll amend my earlier conclusion. 

As Luciu5 says, a game manager QB isn't really worth a high pick.  The opportunity cost is not worth it to pass on a super talented guy (DE, LT) who could be a game-changer.  

So it looks like 2013, 2014 and 2015 all have QB that are best skipped.   The key is to only draft a FRANCHISE QB and they just don't come along every year.  

Pretty much. It’s dependent on if the FO thinks they found one.

Bills did with Allen at #6, Shanahan thought so with Lance, the new Jets management likewise with Wilson. Guys that came rather out of nowhere until their final year or so in school.

Although their size and arm combos put them above any prospects this year. There’s just no THAT tantalizing with this class.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BlitzMonster said:

With a quick analysis, it looks like around 1/2 of 1st round QB's make it as decent starters (depending on how you want to define "decent").   And of these starters, many went 1.1 in the draft.  

After that, it's basically nobody.  Derek Carr and Dak Prescott were starters from the later rounds but that's 2/65 if I counted correctly.  And that ratio ignores the multitude of UDFA.  I'd guess most of the UDFA QB's were just training camp arms.  

My takeaway is if you don't get a QB in the 1st, it's not going to happen.  And actually it should be high in the first, like the top 10 picks or even top 5.  

Most of the fan studies do support what you're saying in regards to being most likely to get a QB in the first two rounds (with a huge drop-off between the 1st and 2nd). The chances of landing a franchise QB outside of the 1st? Next to non-existent, even though the chances of landing one in the 1st round isn't exactly reassuring.

  • 2nd (7) - Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr, and Jimmy Garoppolo are the only success stories here for 42.9% hit rate in the 2nd.
  • 3rd (10) - Jacoby Brissett and CJ Beathard have gotten chances to show that they can start. The verdict is still out on Davis Mills, but he hasn't eliminated himself yet so we'll go ahead and include him as a hit for a rate of 30% in the 3rd over the last 10 years.
  • 4th (13) - Dak Prescott is the only franchise guy from this, but let's go ahead and include Josh Dobbs who's made it as a back-up and Logan Thomas who is now the starting TE for Washington. That's a 23.1% chance of drafting a QB in the 4th that does at least something to contribute to the team.
  • 5th (14) - I refuse to acknowledge Nathan Peterman as a success story. I mean... maybe a half point for Jake Fromm just so that there's SOMETHING? 0.04%.
  • 6th (11) - Gardner Minshew is the name here, though Sudfeld has kept alive as a back-up. Sam Ehlinger put out some interesting tape this season also. We'll be kind here and include them to make it a 27.3% hit rate.
  • 7th (14) - Alone stands Trevor Siemian. 7.1% hit rate.
  • UDFA (104) - Huntley & Heinicke look to be the only meaningful success stories from this group. That's a hit rate of 0.02% if you're hoping to find the next Tony Romo.

Nobody in the last 8 years has found a franchise QB outside of the 1st round with the exception of Dak (4th) and possibly Hurts (2nd). However, not including the last two drafts, only 7 out of 19 QBs drafted in the 1st round are with the team that drafted them. Those QBs are Murray, Jones, Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, Mahomes, and Watson. Of that group, Jones and Mayfield might not be with their original teams after the upcoming season and Watson isn't even able to play due to his legal troubles.

When we look at the current crop of QB prospects, depending on what makes a player a 1st round prospect for you, there's arguably only 2 - 4 guys that with 1st round grades (with only two of them being worthy of top-15 selections!). So even though I understand the chances of finding a guy outside of the 1st being very slim, I also understand that gambling on the next Teddy Bridgewater at #6 is even more harmful (and this is coming from somebody that likes Teddy!).

Edited by Icege
  • Pie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BlitzMonster said:

But almost every class has talent.  It's all about finding the guy who's a good fit for your system and developing him correctly.

It amazes me how much casual fans overlook the importance of a QB's fit within a system. I guess they're looking for the same versatility that Matt Rhule looks for in an offensive lineman. 😂

Edited by Icege
  • Pie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Icege said:

So even though I understand the chances of finding a guy outside of the 1st being very slim, I also understand that gambling on the next Teddy Bridgewater at #6 is even more harmful (and this is coming from somebody that likes Teddy!).

You have to play to win. If you never roll the dice, you'll never find your franchise guy. You can take the safe pick over and over again, but until you win the QB lottery, you will never be more than a playoff contender. That's where you need smart scouts and front office to really get some sort of hint of who could be and who isn't. This year, is any of these guys worth it at 6? Idk. I don't get paid to watch QBs all day and night. Will none of these guys be franchise QB's? Doubt that. I bet one of these guys will be legit. I hope that guy is a Panther next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share


  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Not one single pick that is asking me why we drafted a guy in the first place. It was a guy we needed and/or a guy that had certain traits making them stand out. Best of all, I feel everyone we drafted are capable of stepping onto the field this year and have a meaningful role (even Kuwatch on special teams). Obviously, nothing is guaranteed but I'm not seeing any huge flags on guys because they're risky projects or massive overreaches.
    • Here is how Morgan is strategic-He re-signs Scott because he was not going S in round 1--he had the chance, and he did not.  He saw the top of the draft at T and knew none of them would be ready to start day 1, so he signs a veteran to a one-year deal, giving his tackle selection a chance to learn and prepare for what might be LT or RT.  Those two moves suggested, perhaps ironically because they contradict each other, what he was going to do, based on the talent pool.  He never brought in a Robinson replacement at DE/NT, and then moves up to draft one.   I almost wonder if the intent was to draft DT/DE all along at some point, maybe with a trade back, but then Freeling dropped to them.   Of course, we felt that they were looking WR, and wonder if the plan was to draft a WR in round 2 if you traded back in round 1.  However, when Freeling was there, the trade back fell apart.  Then we traded up for Hunter.  We could stick with XL and hope Metchie steps up, so we sat still in round three and took Brazell II, a 1000 yard speedster and perfect Z WR.  What a break. At that time, CB and Center were our biggest needs, and with several possible centers on the board and a good fit for our defense at CB, we grabbed Will Lee III.  Lee and Thornton have people in front of them, but I think Morgan knew we needed a guy who can play the outside and press--and probably step in as Jackson's replacement in 2027.    After making trades to get back into the fifth round, where we grabbed one of the best centers in the draft.  This is significant because we signed Fortner to a one-year deal; maybe Morgan saw what some of us saw--the center position is strong in this draft--on day 3, and day 3 players need a year, in most cases.  Moments later, a safety they had been talking to whose skill set matched what we are looking for in a FS.  As stated, Scott was signed,  but the fact that the Panthers were talking to Wheatley and not Theiemann means that they might have known they were not going FS early, but would need a developmental FS later--which explains why we signed Scott.  So if you pay attention to the one-year, vet deals, you can tell where we planned to sign later-round, developmental players.  What positions did we draft early that did not have 1-year veterans signed in front of them:  DL (Hunter) and WR (I don't count Metchie because I count starting-level players). I would not be surprised to learn later that the plan was DT and WR in rounds 1 and 2--then Freeling fell.  Notice that Freeling--from Mt Pleasant SC, did not come in for a visit.  Most of the other OT candidates had short arms or were certain to be gone. I don't think Freeling was in their plans.  I think a trade back and Hunter and maybe Boston was the vision.  I am guessing that CB was also high on their list.   So in this draft, we got 
    • This is one area I think that is not getting enough exposure in the midst of all the optimism. I like Chuba a great deal from a personal standpoint but he has largely proven nothing on a consistent basis yet. He's had the one season of production but before that most people pegged us as moving on. And last year injuries or not he just did not have that juice. The rest of the guys are completely unproven. I don't see anyone among the group having a game or a handful of games worth of high level production the way Rico Dowdle did last year. And yeah he dropped off and yeah he got an attitude about our incompetent handling of the touches which was honestly justified on his part and he moved on but he did legitimately save our season. That's what it is going to take to seize control of the NFC South. We all know that we will not be passing all over defenses. It is what it is. So who amongst this RB group is capable of doing that? And if we are struggling to run the ball AND pass are we going to revert to making excuses for our coach and QB again? That is definitely getting old.
×
×
  • Create New...