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Evaluating Draft Day Trades

Mr. Scot

By Mr. Scot,
in Carolina Panthers

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

After factoring in pick 138 in the 4th this year instead of say 110, we actually lost that Houston trade according to the regular charts. Also, since their rookie WR at 89 actually way out performed our WR taken at 59, one might say we didn’t do as well as PFF thinks.

The chart was actually for The 33rd Team but they used PFF's value chart.

The author is a guy with a math and physics degree from Michigan.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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6 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

From a guy with the 33rd Team...

That top name sounds familiar 🤔

Any of those players make an impact yet? Ultimately, that is the biggest determination.

The value charts matter but not if the players you take didn't work out.

So this may look better or a lot worse in a couple of years.

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Your GFs favorite huddler Contributor

Your GFs favorite huddler

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I don’t understand people flaming Fitterer.
 

the draft is a complete crap shoot. Teams make the best possible educated and researched GUESS. At the end of the day that’s what every single pick is, a guess. 

 

I want as many opportunities I can possibly get to be right. Some pan out, many don’t. 
 

I hated Getty’s philosophy same with Marty. 
Give Fitz time man. I promise you, we will not sit still on draft night so buckle up. 

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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1 hour ago, stbugs said:

I assume that PFF probably had a value chart where lower picks aren’t as devalued meaning if you trade down with even value based on the accepted trade chart, you’ll kill it in PFF. We traded down a ton.

We supposedly earned the value of pick 16 by trading down and if you look at the article we got 813 for the Houston trade. If you don’t recall, that Houston trade was our 3rd (89) for their 4th (109), 5th (158) and the Rams 2022 4th (138).

Basically, using the total value and picks assigned, that 813 points is equivalent to pick 75. So trading 89 for 109 and 158 and 138 in 2022 is the same as pick 75?

In the normal trade chart, after factoring in the shittier Rams pick, 89 is actually more valuable than 109+138+158 and that’s not even counting 138 being a year later. So, that’s where the bullshit comes from. Most trade charts would call us a loser on the trade because the 2022 4th became the worst 4th we could receive not an early one. PFF is trying to say our now losing trade was as good as pick 75.

 

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

The chart was actually for The 33rd Team but they used PFF's value chart.

The author is a guy with a math and physics degree from Michigan.

PFF didn't make the Fitzgerald-Spielberger trade value chart, it just happens to be the one they use to judge these GMs with this graph for this article.  Even then all they are doing is looking at if the GM is winning or loosing the trade based on point differential based on the chart.  How the picks actually turn out is irrelevant to this graph.

Here is a write up about the various charts that NFL team use, with the Jimmy Johnson chart being the most well known.  The Fitzgerald-Spielberger trade value chart is a good bit newer and tries to factor in the rookie wage scale that was implemented in 2011.

NFL Trade Value Charts: Different draft trade value charts to follow (profootballnetwork.com)

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Ivan The Awesome Mentor

Ivan The Awesome

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1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Winning on a value chart doesn't matter. It'll matter when we actually start winning on the field.

 

Well you got to have a coach that will actually PUT the players you drafted in the starting lineup and not play dumbass retreads or former Temple players that aren't worth a poo in there. 

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