Michael Lombardi warns Carolina Panthers not to draft a QB at #6

[45catfan]

I also agree with him that teams probably don't study draft history as well as they should.

[Shocker]

I hear Kenny Pickett has a promise in the top 10

[SCO96]

If we did get an elite LT @ 6, I'd be all for Darnold starting the season. We have a top tier player at RT. We just signed solid players to man the RG and C positions. We could possibly use BC at LG and let him play the whole season at one position. Our line would be significantly better than what we put out there in 2021.  On top of that we now have a proven line coach to make them even better.

Darnold has one year left. I'd like to see what we can do. If he sucks, cut bait at seasons' end. Going into 2023 we'll have a solid line, all of our high draft choices, and an opportunity to go all in for a QB via the draft, FA, or trade. I always looked at this as a 3 year rebuild, but last year was so bad that we're now a year behind. I'm willing to wait an extra  year to make the playoffs if it means we can stay atop the division for the rest of the decade.

[MHS831]

Last year, when they let Fields go to a team behind them in the draft, they knew the 2022 draft was weak---so they were "all in" on Darnold.  This year, they take a QB because they were wrong.  I think I heard something once about 2 wrongs.

[45catfan]

So breaking down last year's playoff QBs, I found some interesting things.  Starting off, 8 QBs were first rounders versus 6 that were not. That's one QB from being a 50/50 split.  I will argue in a moment why it SHOULD be a *50/50 split.  Of those 8, 6 were top 10 selections...Mahommes barely making the cut.  Only THREE were top 6 selections.  Those 3 were ALL #1 overall selections; Murray, Stafford and Burrow.

Back to my *exception.  While Tannehill was a top 10 selection (#8 overall) he was a reclamation project when he signed with the Titans and was as good as washed up.  He went to the ideal situation.  That being said, his draft team...the Dolphins gave up on him and for THEIR purposes was a draft whiff.

So unless you have the top overall pick, picking a first round QB is a crap shoot.  You had Allen 2018, Mahommes 2017, *Tannehill 2012 and Big Ben 2004 as those QBs within our draft range this year.

Edited April 12, 2022 by 45catfan

[NCTHFL0567]

Will Brinson on local radio yesterday stated we could still trade for Baker because his trade stock is so low. 

[mrcompletely11]

3 minutes ago, NCTHFL0567 said:

Will Brinson on local radio yesterday stated we could still trade for Baker because his trade stock is so low. 

We are not going to pay 37ish million dollars for Darnold and baker.   That is so stupid it makes my head hurt

[thefuzz]

5 minutes ago, NCTHFL0567 said:

Will Brinson on local radio yesterday stated we could still trade for Baker because his trade stock is so low. 

I think they are certainly considering Baker.

Tie in Baker to a healthy (hopefully) CMC, a new O Line with a shiny new OT...DJ, Robby, Tremble, TMJ, etc...maybe we don't look like a total clown show?

That said, I'm not real interested in giving up picks from next years draft....so....

[45catfan]

Just now, mrcompletely11 said:

We are not going to pay 37ish million dollars for Darnold and baker.   That is so stupid it makes my head hurt

The Browns have three options, keep him, cut him or trade him EATING some of his cap.  No team will take 100% of Baker's cap money.  The Browns are behind the 8 ball.  They are in a losing situation in trade negotiations. 

[Waldo]

2 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

We are not going to pay 37ish million dollars for Darnold and baker.   That is so stupid it makes my head hurt

It is dumb enough to be believed tho...

All for not good enough but at least we tried lol

[ladypanther]

11 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

I think they are certainly considering Baker.

Tie in Baker to a healthy (hopefully) CMC, a new O Line with a shiny new OT...DJ, Robby, Tremble, TMJ, etc...maybe we don't look like a total clown show?

That said, I'm not real interested in giving up picks from next years draft....so....

Even trade? Gets a problem out of their locker room and they have a back up. 

Edited April 12, 2022 by ladypanther

[frankw]

19 minutes ago, NCTHFL0567 said:

Will Brinson on local radio yesterday stated we could still trade for Baker because his trade stock is so low. 

[MHS831]

I firmly believe the system, supporting cast, and coach play calling has as much or more to do with a QB's lack of success than the skill level of the QB.  That is why they miss--they study the "messiah" without looking into their ability to stay disciplined and support him.

[SCO96]

18 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

So breaking down last year's playoff QBs, I found some interesting things.  Starting off, 8 QBs were first rounders versus 6 that were not. That's one QB from being a 50/50 split.  I will argue in a moment why it SHOULD be a *50/50 split.  Of those 8, 6 were top 10 selections...Mahommes barely making the cut.  Only THREE were top 6 selections.  Those 3 were ALL #1 overall selections; Murray, Stafford and Burrow.

Back to my *exception.  While Tannehill was a top 10 selection (#8 overall) he was a reclamation project when he signed with the Titans and was as good as washed up.  He went to the ideal situation.  That being said, his draft team...the Dolphins gave up on him and for THEIR purposes was a draft whiff.

So unless you have the top overall pick, picking a first round QB is a crap shoot.  You had Allen 2018, Mahommes 2017, *Tannehill 2012 and Big Ben 2004 as those QBs within our draft range this year.

Here's another interesting fact about QB's drafted in the top 10 (or even the the top 6) since 1997. Only 4 have won Super Bowls: The Manning brothers have two each, Mahomes won one in 2019, and Matt Stafford just won one a year ago. Big Ben has a couple but he last until the 11th pick.

Those numbers would undoubtedly be a little higher if it weren't for Brady winning 7 rings, but even his success is an indicator that picking a QB in the top 10 is not a sure fire bet to win a SB title.