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Breaking down the Panthers 2022 schedule

hepcat

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hepcat Grand Master

hepcat

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I'm going to break down each Panthers game this year and come to a conclusion on a best-case, likely-case, and worst-case scenario for a final record. I'm rating games as "LIKELY WIN", "TOSS-UP", and "LIKELY LOSS". 

Best case - Panthers win all the "likely win", "toss-up", and win 1 to 2 of "likely loss" games on the schedule.

Likely case - Panthers win all the "likely win" games on the schedule and 1 to 2 of "toss up" games. They lose all of the "likely loss" games.

Worst case - Panthers win only some of the "likely win" games and lose all of the "toss up" and "likely loss" games. 

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Overall, 2022 on paper appears to be a more difficult schedule than in 2021. The Panthers missed an opportunity to slip into the playoffs against a weak schedule last season. The 9-8 Eagles slipped into the wildcard last year. The NFC East was not very good in 2021 and the Panthers managed to lose every game against that division last season. 

But anyway, here's my week-to-week breakdown.

Week 1 vs Cle. LIKELY WIN. The Panthers start off the season against a Cleveland Browns team with an uncertain QB situation. After trading for Deshaun Watson this offseason, it's uncertain when exactly he will play for them due to an ongoing NFL appeal to increase the 6 game suspension he already received. It is a revenge opportunity for former Browns QB Baker Mayfield, who is more than likely starting for the Panthers. I see this as a likely win because of that reason, but the Browns running game and the weak Panthers run defense could swing this game in the other direction. 

Week 2 @ NYG. TOSS UP. Week 2 pits the Panthers off against a perpetually rebuilding Giants team. Last season, the Giants whooped a sorry-ass Panthers team in a game where Sam Darnold looked completely inept, and the rest of the team completely gave up. It was the most pitiful game I've watched the Panthers play under Matt Rhule and that's really saying something considering how bad the team has been since he took over as head coach. I rate this game as a toss up but the Panthers should honestly win this game just to save face for last years debacle. 

Week 3 vs NO. TOSS UP. The Panthers head into Week 3 going against a transitioning Saints team hoping Jameis Winston stays healthy. I have this feeling this might be a year the Saints finally fall apart now that Brees and Sean Payton aren't around, but they still have enough talent on the roster to be competitive every week. Unless half the coaching staff doesn't show up like the game against the Saints last season, I just can't rate them a likely win due to the fact these games against a division opponent are always close, so it's a toss-up for me. 

Week 4 vs Ari. LIKELY WIN. This week kicks off a murderer's row of games for the Panthers, facing off against 4 straight playoff teams from 2021. On paper, the Cardinals should come to Bank of America stadium and destroy the Panthers. But I just don't see that happening. The Panthers have totally and completely owned the Cardinals for the last decade, and that streak has continued even under Matt Rhule. I don't see that changing, because the Cardinals are one of the sorriest franchises to ever exist in any sport ever created on planet Earth. Panthers win. 

Week 5 vs SF. LIKELY LOSS. Kyle Shanahan's team comes to Bank of America stadium after narrowly missing a second Superbowl appearance last season. Shanahan is in another world as a head coach than Matt Rhule and his haphazardly assembled coaching staff. And talent wise, the 49ers are head and shoulders above the Panthers. Being at home, and the "Any Given Sunday" mentality, it's not impossible the Panthers win this game, but it would be quite the upset if the Panthers could pull it off.

Week 6 @ LAR. LIKELY LOSS. Ditto what I said above, and then some. Panthers have to make a cross-country trip to play the reigning champs. This one will probably be ugly.

Week 7 vs TB. LIKELY LOSS. The Panthers have yet to beat the Bucs since Tom Brady arrived. The Bucs have a stacked roster and have owned the Panthers under Matt Rhule. I don't see the Panthers winning this one, even at home. 

Week 8 @ ATL. LIKELY WIN. This week provides a break for the Panthers in their murderer's row schedule with a trip to Atlanta to face a likely bad Falcons team. The Panthers used to be guaranteed to lose in Atlanta, but somehow Matt Rhule has turned that fortune around, winning in Atlanta twice so far as head coach of the Panthers. The Falcons offense has potential to be completely anemic in 2022, and I think the Panthers should pull this one off.

Week 9 @ CIN. LIKELY LOSS. I was very close to rating this game as a tossup, because I think the Bengals wildly overachieved in 2021 and will probably have a Superbowl Hangover like none other. Probably as bad as the 2016 Panthers. But since this is a road game for the Panthers and Matt Rhule's Panthers have only been able to beat really bad teams on the road, I see this as a likely loss. The Bengals offense is still stacked with talent and their defense can do enough to skew the game their way. 

Week 10 vs ATL. LIKELY WIN. This is a must-win game for a Panthers team to have ANY hope of making any sort of noise next season. You can't lose to the likely worst team in the division at home. Atlanta is devoid of talent up and down the roster. Losing to Atlanta even once next season is totally unacceptable. 

Week 11 @ BAL. LIKELY LOSS. Traveling to Baltimore for a Week 11 matchup against the Ravens has potential to be a quality upset, or a complete disaster. The Ravens have fallen hard from their success in 2019 due to injuries and other factors, but this could be a season they get back on track. Their running game and Lamar Jackson's running ability against a Panthers defense that struggles to stop the run, this could be the type of game that gets out of hand quickly. I think it's a likely loss, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if the Panthers upset the Ravens if they are dealing with injury problems like last season. 

Week 12 vs DEN.  LIKELY LOSS. I am pretty much guaranteeing the Panthers lose this game. Too many negative juju factors going against them in this game. Russell Wilson owns the Panthers (except in 2015), the Broncos own the Panthers, and I just don't see the Panthers managing a win out of this one. 

Week 13 <bye> 

Week 14 @ SEA. TOSS UP. The post-Russell Wilson era in Seattle could open the door for the Panthers to make a second cross-country trip more favorable than their earlier season trip to LA. But Seattle is still going to be well-coached and could surprise a lot of people with how competitive they will be next season. They'll likely lean heavily on the run and again, I expect the run defense to be a weakness on the Panthers. I don't think this is a likely win due to having to travel to Seattle, but it's a game I think the Panthers could sneak up and win without anyone being too surprised.

Week 15 vs PIT. TOSS UP. Pittsburgh, like Seattle the week before, is a team transitioning from their long-time franchise QB. Who will be the starting QB in Pittsburgh next season? The Panthers could be seeing Matt Rhule's friend Kenny Pickett by this point in the season. Pittsburgh could be shaping up to have a growing pains season next year, but even still, the Steelers have completely owned the Panthers for a very long time. The Panthers haven't beaten the Steelers during the regular season since...wait for it....1996. Could this be the year? I think it could be, but given that history, this is an obvious toss-up situation. 

Week 16 vs DET. LIKELY WIN. I expect Detroit to be better in 2022 than in 2021. But let's be real, we're talking about the Lions here. Jared Goff is not a good QB. And despite Dan Campbell's rah rah style, I don't really expect them to be winning a lot of games this season. The Panthers should win this game at home, as it's the last home game against a likely bad opponent. A loss here would likely mean the Panthers are looking at a new coaching staff next season because Matt Rhule has already been fired for poor performance. 

Week 17 @ TB. LIKELY LOSS. Woof. The end of the season takes the Panthers on the road against two tough division opponents. I'm not hopeful the Panthers will be pulling off the upset down in Tampa Bay in Week 17. I think it's more likely the Panthers are already knee deep into the coaching search for 2023 at this point. But hey, anything is possible. But either way, even if the Panthers overachieve, good luck taking down the GOAT in his house. 

Week 18 @ NO. LIKELY LOSS. The Panthers haven't beaten the Saints in the Superdome since the 2015 Superbowl season. The game in 2018 where the Saints played their backups does not count. Even without Brees and Sean Payton, the Saints are still one of the best teams at home. The Superdome is a real homefield advantage. This is an extremely tough end of season game. Could the Panthers win it? Sure. Will they? Probably not. 

-----

Okay the final tallies. 

LIKELY WIN: 5 games. TOSS UP: 4 games. LIKELY LOSS: 8 games.

BEST CASE: 10-11 wins

LIKELY CASE: 6-7 wins.

WORST CASE: 3-4 wins. 

If everything clicks, a 10-11 win season would be an incredible achievement given what the 2020 and 2021 Panthers teams managed to vomit up onto the field. I think this would take a lot of luck to happen. 

I think a 6-7 win season is most likely. I can't understate how much harder the 2022 schedule looks compared to the previous two seasons. Will this be enough to keep Matt Rhule?

A complete disaster of a season would see the Panthers win only 3-4 games. There's too much talent on the team to win any less than that. But if the Panthers are 3-9 or 4-8 going into December, I think you gotta fire Matt Rhule. 

 

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Louie Grand Master

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"LIKELY CASE: 6-7 wins" Every year there are teams that we all predicted would be good, but take a step back, for whatever reason. Also, there are teams that improve, that we don't predict, so that makes it a wash. That being said, I don't see how us upgrading:

1. our coaching staff- McAdoo, Wilks, Tabor, much better than what we had last year

2. our O line- Ickey, Corbett, Bozeman

3. QB-Baker Mayfield healthy like 2020 3,563 yards,  26 TDs,8 int

4. Special Teams- Hekker, healthy Gonzalez (instead of kicker carousel

5. D line- Added Matt Lionidis minus Hason Reddick- admittedly I think a little worse

6. CB's- a healthy Jaycee Horn, a better CJ Henderson

All of these improvements and we only win ONE MORE GAME???? Come on man!!!  I will admit I am probably a homer, but I see our floor at about 8 wins. last year we also lost 7 games by one score or less!

I'll bet the 8 wins or more wins all day!!!

 

 

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

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I don't know that I'd call the Browns a likely win. The run game was their strength last year and our major weakness. Not sure that's changed much.

Against the Giants, Brian Daboll vs Phil Snow isn't a coaching matchup I feel good about.

We've yet to sweep the Falcons under Rhule. Not sure I'd expect this to be the year.

Beating the Steelers doesn't really feel all that likely to me either, especially not late in the season.

The Lions probably would have beaten us last year, maybe this year too.

 

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hepcat Grand Master

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49 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

I don't know that I'd call the Browns a likely win. The run game was their strength last year and our major weakness. Not sure that's changed much.

Against the Giants, Brian Daboll vs Phil Snow isn't a coaching matchup I feel good about.

We've yet to sweep the Falcons under Rhule. Not sure I'd expect this to be the year.

Beating the Steelers doesn't really feel all that likely to me either, especially not late in the season.

The Lions probably would have beaten us last year, maybe this year too.

 

I do think you're overestimating the Falcons. I'm not sure about much this season, but I am sure about the Falcons being bad. 

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

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1 minute ago, hepcat said:

I do think you're overestimating the Falcons. I'm not sure about much this season, but I am sure about the Falcons being bad. 

I get that, but I also can't forget that last year five teams who were so bad they fired their coaches (including the Falcons) still beat us.

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hepcat Grand Master

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58 minutes ago, Louie said:

"LIKELY CASE: 6-7 wins" Every year there are teams that we all predicted would be good, but take a step back, for whatever reason. Also, there are teams that improve, that we don't predict, so that makes it a wash. That being said, I don't see how us upgrading:

1. our coaching staff- McAdoo, Wilks, Tabor, much better than what we had last year

2. our O line- Ickey, Corbett, Bozeman

3. QB-Baker Mayfield healthy like 2020 3,563 yards,  26 TDs,8 int

4. Special Teams- Hekker, healthy Gonzalez (instead of kicker carousel

5. D line- Added Matt Lionidis minus Hason Reddick- admittedly I think a little worse

6. CB's- a healthy Jaycee Horn, a better CJ Henderson

All of these improvements and we only win ONE MORE GAME???? Come on man!!!  I will admit I am probably a homer, but I see our floor at about 8 wins. last year we also lost 7 games by one score or less!

I'll bet the 8 wins or more wins all day!!!

 

 

If this team was playing last year's schedule, I could see 8 wins as a "likely" scenario. Unfortunately this season's schedule is far more difficult. Swapping out the NFC East for the NFC West sucks. The only good thing about the 2022 season, is the Falcons are certainly going to be worse, the Saints are probably going to be worse, and the Panthers might have Christian McCaffrey for more than half the season. 

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hepcat Grand Master

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2 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

I get that, but I also can't forget that last year five teams who were so bad they fired their coaches (including the Falcons) still beat us.

Eh true BUT the Falcons might be the least talented team on offense the NFL has seen in many years. They could win only 1-2 games I'm not kidding. 

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