Executives grade trade activity

[poundaway]

On 11/3/2022 at 11:54 PM, carpanfan96 said:

Do what??? The success rate (average starter for 4 years) is like 60% in round 1, 50% in round 2, high 30's in round 3 at best depending on position.  An average to good draft gets 1-2 players at best that stick with a team past the rookie contract. 

 

The rate of a 3rd rounder getting a second deal with any team is around 45%. 

Round 2 is 65% to get a second deal. 

21% of all draft picks become average starters or better based on AV. 

2nd and 3rd round picks not being starters and being out of the league in 4 years is more likely than getting a starter from either of those rounds.

I like the McCaffery trade but the averages say those picks probably don't turn into any starters at all. 

How many HOFers do teams average with those picks?

[The Natural]

19 hours ago, poundaway said:

The better CMC does, the better the 9ers do, the worse our draft picks become.

Its very relevant.

 

The important thing was getting the terrible contract off our books. The draft picks are a bonus. Hopefully we're done with giving RB's ridiculous deals.

[Move the Panthers to Raleigh]

On 11/3/2022 at 8:26 AM, LinvilleGorge said:

It ultimately comes down to wins and losses and championships. It looked for years like the Chargers fleeced the Giants in that Eli Manning trade. They got an arguably better QB in Rivers and made good use of that bevy of picks. But at the end of it all, the Giants got two rings out of the deal. So who really won that trade?

 

Are you implying that CMC will lead SF to two SB wins?

[carpanfan96]

5 hours ago, poundaway said:

How many HOFers do teams average with those picks?

Since 1999, less than 1 %

[KatsAzz]

It is hard to call the Panthers parting with a player as talented as McCaffrey a winner, but that seems to be the case.

The reality is that they will soon be starting over with a new head coach and could be staring down a significant overhaul.

Holding on to a running back who has missed 23 games since the start of the 2020 regular season does not help; nor does having his contract on the books.

Edited November 5, 2022 by KatsAzz

[1of10Charnatives]

7 hours ago, poundaway said:

How many HOFers do teams average with those picks?

It's far from certain CMC winds up in the HOF. Plenty of players with all the talent in the world didn't make HOF because injuries limited their careers.

At this juncture, this far into a RB career, are you telling me you'd bet AGAINST this happening to CMC? 

I didn't think so. So let's not pretend we just gave up a HOFer in that trade. We gave up a very talented player with a problematic contract, unsettling injury history, and at a juncture where he's unlikely to have more than one or two more productive seasons left in him at most.

I love CMC too, but that's the reality.