2023 QB Draft Class has 2018 Draft Vibes

[XClown1986]

There are some odd similarities, and perhaps lessons to reflect on, when comparing the 2023 QB draft class to the 2018 QB draft class.

1st Round QBs in 2018 class (In order drafted):

Baker Mayfield - Browns (1)

Sam Darnold - Jets (3)

Josh Allen - Bills (7)

Josh Rosen - Cardinals (10)

Lamar Jackson - Ravens (32)

Top 6 QBs in 2023 class (In order of most common rankings)

Bryce Young - Alabama

CJ Stroud - Ohio State

Will Levis - Kentucky

Anthony Richardson - Florida

Tanner McKee - Stanford

Hendon Hooker - Tennessee

 

The same arguments made about the top prospects in 2018, sound like the same arguments in the 2023 draft.

Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young - Both won the Heisman, were playmakers, and had size/durability concerns.

Sam Darnold and CJ Stroud - Both have been declared the "most complete" prospects in their respective classes. Touted for their consistency and flaws explained away, they seem to be the "safe" pick.

Josh Allen and Will Levis - Physically stout athletes with cannon arms that underperformed in college. The classic "traits" pick. Has the frame, the arm, the mental makeup, and the potential to improve. A gamble.

Josh Rosen and Tanner McKee - "Who? Why? Sure... I guess..."

Lamar Jackson and Anthony Richardson - Oh boy... The uber-talented athlete that has poor footwork, inaccuracy issues, and questions about the ability to play in an NFL offense. 

Mason Rudolph and Hendon Hooker - Tics a lot of boxes, has some great film and some questionable film. Questions about the system/scheme inflating production. 

 

Looking back... How many people were wrong? How many people would have lost their mind if Josh Allen went number 1? How many people flipped out when Cleveland chose Mayfield over Darnold for the same reasons that people want to take Young over Stroud today? And who is stunned now to see both Mayfield and Darnold to be on their 3rd NFL team in their short careers? And how many people thought Baltimore gave up too much to get back into round 1 for a QB that had too many question marks?

My point is this. There are no sure things. You watch the film, you meet the guy, and you pick with your gut. So for all of the "no-brainer" and "stupid decision" concluders out there, the truth is... We don't know. You don't know. You have to hope that the guys making the pick have the better insight to who these guys can be or will become. The arguments for and against these guys are repeated every year. And some years they are valid. Sometimes they amount to nothing. Time will tell. But before you look at a prospect and say "he's the guy," look back to this draft and ask, "should he be?"

 

 

 

[XClown1986]

For the record, I believe picking CJ Stroud would be a mistake. He has the accuracy and the numbers, but his panic in the face of pressure is going to be a real problem. He reverses his field more often than stepping up and is willing to throw off-balance if the pocket closes more quickly than he likes. Those are difficult things to change in a QB. Perhaps even impossible.

A QB should play with confidence and poise. Stroud is lifeless. I want to like him because there seems to be a lot of reason to like him. But I don't. And I don't trust in his ability to be a franchise QB.

[Mr. Scot]

I've heard a few analysts (not just fans) suggest that this year's quarterback class is not as strong as some think.

That's why some of them have panned the Panthers trading up to #1.

[frankw]

Generally I agree with many of your posts but a Darnold Stroud comp is egregious breh.

And I'm taking a shot in the dark and guessing you're pro Bryce.

Edited March 14, 2023 by frankw

[therealmjl]

Just no

[Losovoevosseniorcapspeciai]

1 hour ago, XClown1986 said:

For the record, I believe picking CJ Stroud would be a mistake. He has the accuracy and the numbers, but his panic in the face of pressure is going to be a real problem. He reverses his field more often than stepping up and is willing to throw off-balance if the pocket closes more quickly than he likes. Those are difficult things to change in a QB. Perhaps even impossible.

A QB should play with confidence and poise. Stroud is lifeless. I want to like him because there seems to be a lot of reason to like him. But I don't. And I don't trust in his ability to be a franchise QB.

Strouds “under pressure” stats bear that out. He’s fools gold. Which I hate saying. 

[Lemory]

Yea, I'll trust McCown's judgement on Stroud's (and other QB's) game more than the huddle's. 

[Wundrbread33]

12 minutes ago, frankw said:

Generally I agree with many of your posts but a Darnold Stroud comp is egregious breh.

And I'm taking a shot in the dark and guessing you're pro Bryce.

Yeah I don’t see that either. Sam was more “gunslinger” esque. His college tape was exciting but risky. 
 

Stroud to me is clearly the more polished pocket passer and more refined at this stage, and less ad lib than Sam. 
 

Don’t see that comp at all.  

[frankw]

9 minutes ago, Wundrbread33 said:

Yeah I don’t see that either. Sam was more “gunslinger” esque. His college tape was exciting but risky. 
 

Stroud to me is clearly the more polished pocket passer and more refined at this stage, and less ad lib than Sam. 
 

Don’t see that comp at all.  

Right Darnold had the "wtf" plays even in college if you watch his tape it's all there. And he regressed in his second season at USC. Stroud isn't without his flaws no prospect is but 40+ scores and 6 picks in both seasons with 69% completion average he has the chops we seek. I see OP is pro Anthony Richardson. I misjudged so for that I apologize. It's between Stroud Young and AR there's no other discussion. I'm on board with the safe pick in Stroud or Richardson. Richardson as the pick would definitely ruffle feathers here but his abilities are worth the gamble and someone will assuredly take him in the first. Just my opinion but based on his history I get the feeling Reich is highly likely feeling the same way.

[Khyber53]

2 hours ago, XClown1986 said:

There are some odd similarities, and perhaps lessons to reflect on, when comparing the 2023 QB draft class to the 2018 QB draft class.

1st Round QBs in 2018 class (In order drafted):

Baker Mayfield - Browns (1)

Sam Darnold - Jets (3)

Josh Allen - Bills (7)

Josh Rosen - Cardinals (10)

Lamar Jackson - Ravens (32)

Top 6 QBs in 2023 class (In order of most common rankings)

Bryce Young - Alabama

CJ Stroud - Ohio State

Will Levis - Kentucky

Anthony Richardson - Florida

Tanner McKee - Stanford

Hendon Hooker - Tennessee

 

The same arguments made about the top prospects in 2018, sound like the same arguments in the 2023 draft.

Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young - Both won the Heisman, were playmakers, and had size/durability concerns.

Sam Darnold and CJ Stroud - Both have been declared the "most complete" prospects in their respective classes. Touted for their consistency and flaws explained away, they seem to be the "safe" pick.

Josh Allen and Will Levis - Physically stout athletes with cannon arms that underperformed in college. The classic "traits" pick. Has the frame, the arm, the mental makeup, and the potential to improve. A gamble.

Josh Rosen and Tanner McKee - "Who? Why? Sure... I guess..."

Lamar Jackson and Anthony Richardson - Oh boy... The uber-talented athlete that has poor footwork, inaccuracy issues, and questions about the ability to play in an NFL offense. 

Mason Rudolph and Hendon Hooker - Tics a lot of boxes, has some great film and some questionable film. Questions about the system/scheme inflating production. 

 

Looking back... How many people were wrong? How many people would have lost their mind if Josh Allen went number 1? How many people flipped out when Cleveland chose Mayfield over Darnold for the same reasons that people want to take Young over Stroud today? And who is stunned now to see both Mayfield and Darnold to be on their 3rd NFL team in their short careers? And how many people thought Baltimore gave up too much to get back into round 1 for a QB that had too many question marks?

My point is this. There are no sure things. You watch the film, you meet the guy, and you pick with your gut. So for all of the "no-brainer" and "stupid decision" concluders out there, the truth is... We don't know. You don't know. You have to hope that the guys making the pick have the better insight to who these guys can be or will become. The arguments for and against these guys are repeated every year. And some years they are valid. Sometimes they amount to nothing. Time will tell. But before you look at a prospect and say "he's the guy," look back to this draft and ask, "should he be?"

 

 

 

Sometimes it's not the guy, but where they ended up. Coaching and team quality have soooo much to do with this. Had Mayfield or Darnold ended up in Buffalo or Baltimore would they have succeeded thanks to the solid coaching there? Maybe, but most certainly they'd have done better. Had Lamar or Josh ended up at Cleveland or the Jets? I don't think either of them would have been looking at a second contract from those teams... train wrecks are train wrecks.

So, here we sit, trying to get just the right guy. Too small, too inexperienced, too inconsistent, too much of a program player??? That's not so much the question for us. The question is do we have the QB brain trust in place that we think we do? Can they really develop a QB?

A lot points to us having the coaching in place. We also have an offensive line in place and a defense that might help a young QB with plenty of opportunities.  

Shooo, this is going to be a real experience here. I hope it is exciting and rewarding. It will not be dull.

[Move the Panthers to Raleigh]

43 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

Sometimes it's not the guy, but where they ended up. Coaching and team quality have soooo much to do with this. Had Mayfield or Darnold ended up in Buffalo or Baltimore would they have succeeded thanks to the solid coaching there? Maybe, but most certainly they'd have done better. Had Lamar or Josh ended up at Cleveland or the Jets? I don't think either of them would have been looking at a second contract from those teams... train wrecks are train wrecks.

So, here we sit, trying to get just the right guy. Too small, too inexperienced, too inconsistent, too much of a program player??? That's not so much the question for us. The question is do we have the QB brain trust in place that we think we do? Can they really develop a QB?

A lot points to us having the coaching in place. We also have an offensive line in place and a defense that might help a young QB with plenty of opportunities.  

Shooo, this is going to be a real experience here. I hope it is exciting and rewarding. It will not be dull.

I agree. Also, Mahomes gets coached by Reid right out of the gate. That HAS to be a factor.

I would be more worried about any of these guys if Rhule was still HC.

[XClown1986]

1 hour ago, frankw said:

Generally I agree with many of your posts but a Darnold Stroud comp is egregious breh.

And I'm taking a shot in the dark and guessing you're pro Bryce.

They are different prospects for sure, but both "see ghosts" in the pocket and are considered to be the "safest" QB in the draft.

I love Bryce Young as a prospect. But his size does scare me. Honestly? I'm actually curious if the coaching staff feels they can bring the best out of Levis or Richardson. They have the most superstar potential.

Edited March 14, 2023 by XClown1986

[frankw]

3 minutes ago, XClown1986 said:

They are different prospects for sure, but both "see ghosts" in the pocket and are considered to be the "safest" QB in the draft.

I'd have to disagree about him being a safe pick. The biggest thing Darnold had going for him was his physical ability his arm talent was and is still exactly what you want in any franchise QB. Beyond that he was boom or bust as a passer. He compares more to Levis if we are drawing parallels between 2018 and 2023. As far as Stroud seeing ghosts if you could please provide me with some examples or game tape I would appreciate that.

Edited March 14, 2023 by frankw

[Brooklyn 3.0]

Just save all of us the time with this thread and say you want AR, OP.