Panthers over/under win totals

[mrcompletely11]

31 minutes ago, rayzor said:

i think we'll see as quickly with Young as we did with Cam...as in weeks 1 and 2 i think we'll know we've got something special going on here. 

tbh, i'm not as excited about Young as i was with Cam (although there is a lot of excitement and that excitement is building for me), but i am far more excited about Young + Reich & co. than i was with Cam + Rivera & co.

well we know Young can play we just dont know if its sustainable.  We were just holding our breath with cam because he looked lost in preseason if I remember correctly

[Sgt Schultz]

I would like to see them break .500.  That is possible based on the schedule and what we think we know about the teams on it right now. 

We can get to nine wins out of going 4-2 in the division (sweep the Bucs, split with the Falcons and Saints), then win against the Texans, Colts, Titans, Packers, and grabbing a win out of the Bears, Dolphins, or Lions (all road games).  That involves just winning games we "should" win.

For the first time, we may have a coaching staff that lets us walk away from a game saying they actually stole a win.  That could be the difference between 8 or 9 wins and 10 or 11.  Just going from a staff that had us saying constantly wondering what the heck they thought they were doing while costing us another one to one that didn't steal any and but give as many away took us from a 1-4 start to a 6-6 finish.  

So, while I am setting my bar at 9 wins, I can understand people thinking there are 10 or more in this equation.

[KSpan]

1 hour ago, rayzor said:

if it's going to work, you'll see it year one. you have the right coach...you'll see results quickly. if it takes 2 or more years, you probably don't have the right coach.

complete overhauls don't take 2-3 years to succeed anymore. you see the fruits year one and year 2-3 you likely see a solid playoff run. you have the right QB (even a rookie one) and you see bigger success earlier.

7 wins would be a 40% increase vs the past several years and there could be even more positives as I mentioned. That is indeed 'seeing it year one', so your position that anticipating 7 wins is 'miserable' makes no sense. 

[rayzor]

38 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

well we know Young can play we just dont know if its sustainable.  We were just holding our breath with cam because he looked lost in preseason if I remember correctly

true. preseason cam was not a good indicator of regular season cam. i had forgotten that.

[weyco2000]

Everyone’s expectations should be a division title after sh1tting the bed vs. Tampa last season.
 

Why the fug are some  expecting a regression? New Coach and QB that seems to be well worth the price paid. Free agency signings filled/upgraded skill positions… God damn man we’ve been reading how many Rhule/Darnold sucks threads for 2 years now? Now they’re gone and we suck worse?
 

 

 

[rayzor]

2 hours ago, KSpan said:

7 wins would be a 40% increase vs the past several years and there could be even more positives as I mentioned. That is indeed 'seeing it year one', so your position that anticipating 7 wins is 'miserable' makes no sense. 

 7 wins is not an improvement over last year. If we only get 7 wins this year, that would be more than a disappointment. That would be a sign that we hired the wrong guy and we probably should have stayed with Wilks because even he would have done better than that last year had he started the season earlier.

Wilks, given a whole season, given this season, would have won between 7-9 games.

Reich and this staff..this team was put together because the expectation is at the very least 9. The expectation is playoffs and winning the division THIS year.

And it's very reasonable and reachable.

[1of10Charnatives]

1 hour ago, rayzor said:

 7 wins is not an improvement over last year. If we only get 7 wins this year, that would be more than a disappointment. That would be a sign that we hired the wrong guy and we probably should have stayed with Wilks because even he would have done better than that last year had he started the season earlier.

Wilks, given a whole season, given this season, would have won between 7-9 games.

Reich and this staff..this team was put together because the expectation is at the very least 9. The expectation is playoffs and winning the division THIS year.

And it's very reasonable and reachable.

I tend to concur, especially in light of the state of the division. If a team can't come out of nowhere with a new coaching staff and a rookie qb, but with a sneaky good oline to win a division this awful, it can't be done. We're by no means a sure thing, but the opportunity is def there.

[KSpan]

2 hours ago, rayzor said:

 7 wins is not an improvement over last year. If we only get 7 wins this year, that would be more than a disappointment. That would be a sign that we hired the wrong guy and we probably should have stayed with Wilks because even he would have done better than that last year had he started the season earlier.

Wilks, given a whole season, given this season, would have won between 7-9 games.

Reich and this staff..this team was put together because the expectation is at the very least 9. The expectation is playoffs and winning the division THIS year.

And it's very reasonable and reachable.

Oh good god. Complete overhaul of the coaching staff with brand new people almost everywhere, a rookie QB with a largely-new WR corps comprised of unproven 3rd yr player/Mr. Glass/aging star/rookie, a new RB with no real power option behind him, an OL with multiple starters returning from injury, a defensive group not necessarily built for the scheme being installed (not anyone's fault, just the nature of the NFL)... and you're going to say a scenario with 40% improvement in wins with other potential positive indicators is "more than a disappointment"?

This as a baseline minimum expectation is ludicrous. Not all 7-10 records are created equal, especially given the complete overhaul taking place, and declaring dissatisfaction with every single 7-10 (were we dissatisfied or encouraged with Cam's 2011 final record?) in MAY is just dumb. Could the team explode and blow the league away? Sure, and if it does then awesome. But if that is your baseline expectation for 2023 then you are the one setting yourself up for misery.

Edited May 24, 2023 by KSpan

[rayzor]

We're heading to the playoffs... this year.

We're winning the division...this year.

[WUnderhill]

9 hours ago, KSpan said:

7 wins would be a 40% increase vs the past several years and there could be even more positives as I mentioned. That is indeed 'seeing it year one', so your position that anticipating 7 wins is 'miserable' makes no sense. 

We just finished with 7 wins how would it be a 40% increase? And that was 7 wins with a historically bad coach, an interim coach, and the worst QB play in the league from 3 different starting QBs.

[KSpan]

5 minutes ago, WUnderhill said:

We just finished with 7 wins how would it be a 40% increase? And that was 7 wins with a historically bad coach, an interim coach, and the worst QB play in the league from 3 different starting QBs.

I mistakenly thought they only had 5 wins again last year but still stand behind the rest of my point. Plenty of scenarios where 7-10 this year is not an automatic fail given all the upheaval; way too many moving parts for such a blanket assertion, especially mere days into OTAs. 

[weyco2000]

14 hours ago, rayzor said:

 7 wins is not an improvement over last year. If we only get 7 wins this year, that would be more than a disappointment. That would be a sign that we hired the wrong guy and we probably should have stayed with Wilks because even he would have done better than that last year had he started the season earlier.

Wilks, given a whole season, given this season, would have won between 7-9 games.

Reich and this staff..this team was put together because the expectation is at the very least 9. The expectation is playoffs and winning the division THIS year.

And it's very reasonable and reachable.

[Move the Panthers to Raleigh]

22 hours ago, KSpan said:

What's miserable about acknowledging a probable reality? My expectations are pretty low largely because a complete overhaul rarely yields major results in year 1. Years 2 and 3 yeah, I fully expect the team to be much improved, but this year... nah. Let's see some upward trend throughout the season and actual competent NFL strategy and I'll be set. Hardly a miserable state of mind and, if anything, makes it much easier to be impressed/delighted.

Y'all are the ones setting yourselves up for some potential misery.

Thank you

[poundaway]

18 hours ago, weyco2000 said:

Everyone’s expectations should be a division title after sh1tting the bed vs. Tampa last season.
 

Why the fug are some  expecting a regression? New Coach and QB that seems to be well worth the price paid. Free agency signings filled/upgraded skill positions… God damn man we’ve been reading how many Rhule/Darnold sucks threads for 2 years now? Now they’re gone and we suck worse?
 

 

 

We're not playing last year's rosters or even last years schedule.   

The division rivals did not stand still.

We've made very little investment on the D side of the ball, and our D wasn't all that great last year.  Add to that  a new DC and changing base formation.

Young was a great college QB, but he is still a rookie.

Our OC has never been OC. 

Reich's O last year was horrible, and he' going to calling plays.

The schedule is front loaded we already have injuries on our starting OL.

Its possible we skip the part where we take time to gel and that all the ingredients just work together like fine stew, but I would guess we start slow as we lead off with two division games.