Canales on TE spot from Char observer

[LinvilleGorge]

If we think he's an ELITE player at the position. I mean a Gronk, Kelce, Witten,Sharpe, Heap, level player (basically Greg Olsen being his FLOOR)... I'm not mad.

[Shocker]

They will go defense almost certainly at 8

[jayboogieman]

10 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

you should care, thats the exact point.  There is something called analytics, odds, past history etc that lay out quite clearly that taking a TE in the first much less in the goddamn top 10 is fuging moronic and pans out about 5% of the time if that

Oh, since it's just stats and hit rate you care about.

According to this, nobody should take any position but centers and RBs in the first round.

[mrcompletely11]

3 minutes ago, jayboogieman said:

Oh, since it's just stats and hit rate you care about.

According to this, nobody should take any position but centers and RBs in the first round.

yeah I am going to need some context to whatever this is

 

or you could read this  https://x.com/SheilKapadia/status/1779873360190620080?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1779873360190620080|twgr^ff940ba10db64f79986523b3f835beddd5ea894f|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2F1c4n4jd%2F%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse

 

or use this in your research

how many of these dudes would you go back and pick in the first?  The odds are literally astronomical that a TE hits in his first contract

 

 

• Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
• No. 13 overall, 2024
• Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
  No. 4 overall, 2021
• T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
  No. 8, 2019
• Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
  No. 20, 2019
• Hayden Hurst, Baltimore Ravens
  No. 25, 2018
• O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  No. 19, 2017
• Evan Engram, New York Giants
  No. 23, 2017
• David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
  No. 29, 2017
• Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions
  No. 10, 2014
• Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals
  No. 21, 2013
• Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals
  No. 21, 2010
• Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions
  No. 20, 2009
• Dustin Keller, New York Jets
  No. 30, 2008
• Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears
  No. 31, 2007
• Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
  No. 6, 2006
• Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars
  No. 28, 2006
• Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers
  No. 30, 2005
• Kellen Winslow II, Cleveland Browns
  No. 6, 2004
• Ben Watson, New England Patriots
  No. 32, 2004
• Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts
  No. 24, 2003
• Jeremy Shockey, New York Giants
  No. 14, 2002
• Daniel Graham, New England Patriots
  No. 21, 2002
• Jerramy Stevens, Seattle Seahawks
  No. 28, 2002
• Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens
  No. 31, 2001
• Bubba Franks, Green Bay Packers
  No. 14, 2000
• Anthony Becht, New York Jets
  No. 27, 2000

Edited March 3 by mrcompletely11

[jayboogieman]

3 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

yeah I am going to need some context to whatever this is

Just what the chart says, hit rates by position for the first round. It's for 2013-2017 and I got it from here, but if that doesn't work for you, I have another.

This chart shows the hit rate of 2000-2019. And it came from here, here, and here.

[Swaggasaurus]

25 minutes ago, La Pantera said:

TE in the first doesn’t make sense. This is a deep overall TE class. There will be talented TEs in the 2nd/3rd rounds.

Bowers is the only one in recent memory took in the 1st, that has panned out.
 

It doesn’t exactly work like that. You really have Warren, then Arroyo , Loveland and Taylor and not much else. Fannin was just ok at the Senior Bowl and others have major holes in their game. Who’s to say they aren’t all gone at 57 or whenever we pick in round 2, much less round 3. I’m not advocating a TE or a S in the top 10. But if we stand pat at 8, I am advocating for as close as we can get to a sure thing. Production+Athleticism+intangibles make sure all those boxes are checked. Luke Kuechly was pick 9. Give me that type of player at whatever position when you are picking in that 5-10 range. 

[mrcompletely11]

5 minutes ago, jayboogieman said:

Just what the chart says, hit rates by position for the first round. It's for 2013-2017 and I got it from here, but if that doesn't work for you, I have another.

This chart shows the hit rate of 2000-2019. And it came from here, here, and here.

I get they have to define "hit" and "miss" somehow but this is bit simple

 

A “hit” was defined as a drafted player who signs a second contract with the team that they played their rookie contract on. This could be a player like Joey Bosa who was drafted by the Chargers, played his rookie contract, and was given a second contract. Another example could be Jalen Ramsey who was traded during his rookie contract but signed an extension with his new team, the Rams.

For the record this would show Ian Thomas as a "hit".  Would you agree with that?

but nonetheless it clearly shows TE's show more value later in their careers. IE Greg Olson, Jason Witten etc

Edited March 3 by mrcompletely11

[Move the Panthers to Raleigh]

20 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

yeah I am going to need some context to whatever this is

 

or you could read this  https://x.com/SheilKapadia/status/1779873360190620080?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1779873360190620080|twgr^ff940ba10db64f79986523b3f835beddd5ea894f|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2F1c4n4jd%2F%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse

 

or use this in your research

how many of these dudes would you go back and pick in the first?  The odds are literally astronomical that a TE hits in his first contract

 

 

• Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
• No. 13 overall, 2024
• Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
  No. 4 overall, 2021
• T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
  No. 8, 2019
• Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
  No. 20, 2019
• Hayden Hurst, Baltimore Ravens
  No. 25, 2018
• O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  No. 19, 2017
• Evan Engram, New York Giants
  No. 23, 2017
• David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
  No. 29, 2017
• Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions
  No. 10, 2014
• Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals
  No. 21, 2013
• Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals
  No. 21, 2010
• Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions
  No. 20, 2009
• Dustin Keller, New York Jets
  No. 30, 2008
• Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears
  No. 31, 2007
• Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
  No. 6, 2006
• Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars
  No. 28, 2006
• Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers
  No. 30, 2005
• Kellen Winslow II, Cleveland Browns
  No. 6, 2004
• Ben Watson, New England Patriots
  No. 32, 2004
• Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts
  No. 24, 2003
• Jeremy Shockey, New York Giants
  No. 14, 2002
• Daniel Graham, New England Patriots
  No. 21, 2002
• Jerramy Stevens, Seattle Seahawks
  No. 28, 2002
• Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens
  No. 31, 2001
• Bubba Franks, Green Bay Packers
  No. 14, 2000
• Anthony Becht, New York Jets
  No. 27, 2000

I remember wanting Enron big time 

Edited March 3 by Move the Panthers to Raleigh

[jfra78]

They have linked us to about 10 different players, maybe they have learned something about not showing their cards

[jayboogieman]

43 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

For the record this would show Ian Thomas as a "hit".  Would you agree with that?

Thomas wasn't a first round pick. He was a fourth, so stop shifting goalposts.

And since those charts are what's out there to go by, you ok with just drafting centers, tackles, and guards in the first? Are you also alright with never drafting another first round WR(especially in the top ten), no matter who they are(Harrison jr for example), since they hit even less than TEs do?

Speaking of Harrison Jr, he didn't even put up 900 yards last season, so he couldn't have been worth his draft status by your logic.

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, jayboogieman said:

Thomas wasn't a first round pick. He was a fourth, so stop shifting goalposts.

And since those charts are what's out there to go by, you ok with just drafting centers, tackles, and guards in the first? Are you also alright with never drafting another first round WR(especially in the top ten), no matter who they are(Harrison jr for example), since they hit even less than TEs do?

Speaking of Harrison Jr, he didn't even put up 900 yards last season, so he couldn't have been worth his draft status by your logic.

Of the 24 tes drafted in the first round since 2000.   How many do you personally think were worth the pick?   Simple question 

 

Now do the same for tes in the top 10.   Just answer the question 

[jayboogieman]

2 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Of the 24 tes drafted in the first round since 2000.   How many do you personally think were worth the pick?   Simple question 

 

Now do the same for tes in the top 10.   Just answer the question 

We played that game last week. You can go back in the post history and read the answer if you want to.

[mrcompletely11]

12 minutes ago, jayboogieman said:

We played that game last week. You can go back in the post history and read the answer if you want to.

Cool.  It's less then 10%   sounds like a winning formula 

Edited March 4 by mrcompletely11

[CarolinaRideorDie]

Another prospect to keep an eye on is Michael Mayer with the Raiders. Rumor is that they are looking to trade him given Brock Bowers already being a super star. I wouldn't be mad if we traded a 4th or 5th rounder for him, dude had talent coming out. If we do go with Warren, I'm can imagine him taking the snap and us emulating our own version of "the tush push."