Panthers NFC South Champs!

[tukafan21]

19 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah but jumping up in the draft to get a project #2/3 WR is just plain not smart. I am down on XL because the thought was that he could be a potential #1 WR and he has been anything but that so far. Also, the idea of him as a slot is even more upsetting because you pass on several more productive slot guys(McConkey being the most obvious) that were TREMENDOUSLY more NFL ready.

I was not a fan of the XL move at the time and I am not a fan of the decision in short term hindsight either. He is just simply going to have to be a guy that proves it on the field to me.

McMillian was my #1 WR in this draft and I was a pro-McMillian guy. However, he isn't gonna get treated with baby gloves either. We are in the era of rookie WR's putting up 1k+ yd seasons with regularity. He's going to(barring injury) have to be one of the top 2 or 3 WR's in this class in terms of production. And that's being very generous to him. He really needs to be THE guy from this class. It isn't like he is gonna have a lot of guys taking catches away from him.

First on T-Mac, I 100% expect him to be the top WR from this class, however I think expecting him to put up 1k+ as a rookie isn't necessarily fair, especially since you're putting it in perspective of how many other rookie WRs have done that in recent years.

And Thielen is the reason for that.

Not many (if any) of those 1k+ rookies had someone like Thielen there when they were drafted, and no matter how good T-Mac is this year, Bryce is still going to lean on his existing chemistry with Thielen unless he's drastically lost a step this offseason and just can't get open like he's been able to in his career.

As I pointed out in another thread the other day, looking at MHJ last year is the way to look at T-Mac's season if Thielen plays a full and healthy season.  MHJ had McBride "steal" 110+ catches and 1,100+ yards in what was a pass happy offense (Kyler was 9th in the league in attempts), it's going to be hard for any rookie to put up more than the 800ish yards he had last year in that scenario.  Especially if we follow a similar game plan to last year and be a run heavy team.

In terms of XL, you're completely right, jumping up to get a project 2/3 isn't smart, and if we knew we needed a future slot from that pick, yes, Ladd would have been a much better pick.

But at this point, those are all sunk costs, even taking T-Mac at 8 is now considered a sunk cost.

Forgetting the past or who we maybe should have taken last year now knowing future roles, I still think T-Mac, XL, Coker can be one of the Top 1-3 WR rooms in the NFL in a few years, I honestly think they really do have that potential in them.

Edited 4 hours ago by tukafan21

[Basbear]

2 hours ago, CRA said:

I say about 7ish wins.  Give or take. 

I think the Panthers are still fundamentally in no mans land on offense where the QB doesn't match the playcaller/talent. 

I think the D moves from horrible to average. 

This is where I am at, before I see what they show on the field. 

5-9 wins

The main deal and difference is Coaches right now. The talent is on the low end, * but its enough for them to compete. Evero this is your time and guess what Mr. former #1 overall, its time for you too.

The saving grace is this piss poor NFC south. The fuging Yucs have won 4 str with 9-10 win season type of plays, feasting on this weak 6 game schedule. With some Luck panther *could* win 9 or 10 and steal a playoff game too. 

The truth is this is the 2nd year(really 1.5) into full 3 year rebuild. *After 2026 the cap should be fixed and the team shhhhoooould have some talent, young talent. Many will be in their prime years- dbrown, horn, hunt, BY, lewis, icky, moehrig etc. Then XL, brooks(pray), Wallace, sanders, 2025&2026 draft class will fill in the remaining spots.  

Edited 4 hours ago by Basbear

[ColumbusCounty]

Well we won 5 games and it took the worst defense in NFL history to do that. 

IF we can stay relatively healthy and Bryce plays just like he did (not even saying better) after the benching you could arguably debate 9-10 wins. I wouldn't hold my breath but I wouldn't be shocked. 

The defensive improvement should be remarkable actually. Same corners, new dline, DB's return, updated safeties, same LB's ...+ the Dline's improvement should make every position about 25% better. If that's good enough to stop atleast 2 touchdowns more than we were able to last season then yea we're about to suprise alot of people imho. 

[ColumbusCounty]

33 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

First on T-Mac, I 100% expect him to be the top WR from this class, however I think expecting him to put up 1k+ as a rookie isn't necessarily fair, especially since you're putting it in perspective of how many other rookie WRs have done that in recent years.

If Tmac is the #1 read, I think it's safe to say he'll have 1k yards on the season. Our last 2 first round WRs before XL hit the mark (DJ and Benjamin). Hell, add up the missed yardage on Legette and he'd probably be knocking at the door. 

Refer to last season's first few games and substitute Diontae Johnson with McMillian. And If he plays every game, he'll most likely be in discussion for OROY. 

[panthers55]

That is the thing, we were very competitive on offense at the end of the year but our defense was terrible and rarely gave us short fields or defensive points. The number of wins is totally dependent on the defense and lack of injuries on both sides of the ball.  We could easily win 8 if our defense is competitive. Brown being back alone is worth a win or two. Add some pass rush and run defense and who knows. But I am oddly not worried about the offense for the first time in years.

[tukafan21]

10 minutes ago, ColumbusCounty said:

If Tmac is the #1 read, I think it's safe to say he'll have 1k yards on the season. Our last 2 first round WRs before XL hit the mark (DJ and Benjamin). Hell, add up the missed yardage on Legette and he'd probably be knocking at the door. 

Refer to last season's first few games and substitute Diontae Johnson with McMillian. And If he plays every game, he'll most likely be in discussion for OROY. 

First of all, DJ had 788 yards as a rookie

And second, KB was playing with Cam the year before he won MVP, and while Olsen had the exact same 1,008 yards as KB that year, next on the list was Cotchery with 580 and then 4th was Philly Brown with 296.

KB had 73 receptions on 146 targets that year, THAT'S why he had 1k+ yards, not because he was some dominant WR, there were no other WR options on that team at all.

If you say Thielen and Olsen are somewhat equal, particularly in role and ability, then XL/Coker >>>>>> Cotchery/Brown.

Yes, T-Mac very well could get there, and this isn't me hedging on the ability of my guy.  It's that we should in theory have a lot of good receiving options and in his rookie year, I can see how T-Mac can have a good season but still not get to 1k this year because of it.

In year 2 when we lose Thielen and he has that year under his belt, then yea, I'll say right now, I'm expecting a 1,200 yard season at minimum from him in 2026.  But I just think expecting 1k this first year given the weapons we have and being a run first offense, isn't fair to T-Mac.

Again, just look at MHJ for what an uber talented rookie is likely to do when there is another legit receiving option there.  Nabers and BTJ were the only games in town for them last year, Puka the year before had a lot of time as the only option there while Kupp was hurt.

If that happens to us next year with Thielen/XL/Coker, then yea, I'll then say T-Mac should get that 1k mark, but I'm not going to make my expectations based on expecting injuries.

Edited 4 hours ago by tukafan21

[kungfoodude]

4 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

First on T-Mac, I 100% expect him to be the top WR from this class, however I think expecting him to put up 1k+ as a rookie isn't necessarily fair, especially since you're putting it in perspective of how many other rookie WRs have done that in recent years.

And Thielen is the reason for that.

Not many (if any) of those 1k+ rookies had someone like Thielen there when they were drafted, and no matter how good T-Mac is this year, Bryce is still going to lean on his existing chemistry with Thielen unless he's drastically lost a step this offseason and just can't get open like he's been able to in his career.

As I pointed out in another thread the other day, looking at MHJ last year is the way to look at T-Mac's season if Thielen plays a full and healthy season.  MHJ had McBride "steal" 110+ catches and 1,100+ yards in what was a pass happy offense (Kyler was 9th in the league in attempts), it's going to be hard for any rookie to put up more than the 800ish yards he had last year in that scenario.  Especially if we follow a similar game plan to last year and be a run heavy team.

In terms of XL, you're completely right, jumping up to get a project 2/3 isn't smart, and if we knew we needed a future slot from that pick, yes, Ladd would have been a much better pick.

But at this point, those are all sunk costs, even taking T-Mac at 8 is now considered a sunk cost.

Forgetting the past or who we maybe should have taken last year now knowing future roles, I still think T-Mac, XL, Coker can be one of the Top 1-3 WR rooms in the NFL in a few years, I honestly think they really do have that potential in them.

I can't excuse T-Mac not being a 1k guy in a 17 game schedule. Especially with how many of those rookie WR's have done that in the past 15 years.

He needs to produce quickly. Don't get me wrong, if the offense just ends up being broken for some reason, that is a valid excuse but he really needs to show he is the guy very early.