Week 1 @JAX Grades

[LinvilleGorge]

Just now, PNW_PantherMan said:

The unfortunate thing is statistics are always about large enough sample sizes.  But football is about small sample sizes.  The entire game can be decided on one bonehead play.  And that's rated the same as every other play basically.  That ends up swinging 1 of only 17 games.  In baseball, for example, you have 162 games for things to even out.  Every day players literally get 600 at bats a year.  There's no sample sizes like that in football anywhere.

Yeah, that's kinda what I was getting at above. There's no way to create a flawless statistical evaluation model but you gotta have some type of weighted system to account for the impact of truly great or disastrous plays. You can't just grade every play as equally important. Again, the weighting system WILL be flawed but you gotta try and you gotta keep tweaking it to get the grade to best reflect what you're seeing because that's ultimately the goal, right? To create a grading system that accurately reflect the overall play if the player. I mean, even if Bryce had hit on all his near misses and those drops had been caught, he would have STILL had a bad overall game given the impact of the disastrous plays but PFF's system allows those almost plays to help him while downplaying the impact of the disasters. The same is true on the opposite side for a QB who may not have played great overall but had a handful of brilliant plays that had a huge impact on the outcome. Cam had quite a few of those types of games.

[theinstrumental]

Just finished a re-watch of the game, and I can see how they back into "Bryce was fine, actually." You just have to be incredibly charitable to Bryce. The grade basically comes down to how much blame you assign to him for these plays:

1. The goal-line 4th-and-1 where the ball was snapped early.
2. The XL sideline toe-drag failure.
3. The left sideline Renfrow drop.
4. The second left sideline Renfrow missed connection (ugh).
5. The ball going through Dowdle's hands and getting picked.
6. The JT Sanders wheel-route drop.
7. The 4th-and-1 end-zone shot to T-Mac.

If you put the drops on the receivers and massage his grade a little due to some quick pressures...sure, you get a passable grade. If you don't, then it looks pretty bad. But the only undeniably, balls-stupid, completely-on-him mistakes I remember right now were the fumble, the pick on the bootleg, and a spray or two.

I'll just say that I don't really understand why everyone gets so upset about these grades. We all know they're pretty subjective and should really only be taken seriously over a sample size big enough to even some of these things out. It obviously matters that the offense looked like crap. But that'll all show up in the grades if that remains the case. Maybe they could be better about putting in a range? Like, they could go as low as a 30 or as high as an 80, depending on how you score those things, but they had to settle on something, so here's a 70. 

[frankw]

2 minutes ago, CRA said:

Maybe it’s some PR scheme at this point 

because PFF is saying, Bryce is a top 10 QB thus far into season.  He is at the #9 ranking lol.   

I have no idea but I'll trust my own two eyes. He's still playing like one of the worst QB's in recent memory.

Edited September 8 by frankw

[LinvilleGorge]

4 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

He likes XL for some unknown reason. He will probably go in on Renfrow. 

Oh lord, of course he does. Yeah, you're probably right. If Renfrow was bigger he could've won an MMA fight with the DB and still caught that under thrown wounded duck and if he was 6'2" with a 40" vertical maybe he could've reeled in that ball that sailed over his head along the sideline.

It's wild how that guy will crucify receivers but just give Bryce pass after pass. Maybe he sees himself in Bryce - a guy who has marginal at best NFL talent but could have maybe succeeded if he was surrounded by a cast of All-Pros.

[Waldo]

Lol did they give curves? 

[45catfan]

By the same account, I wonder if they dinged him for the shovel pass INT that got gifted back?

[jb2288]

Just now, 45catfan said:

By the same account, I wonder if they dinged him for the shovel pass INT that got gifted back?

They definitely should but I don't think they did if they gave him a 70

[mc52beast]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

I think these are preseason game grades.

Speaking of preseason, I remember people saying preseason doesn’t mean anything, even when you go 0-3. Yesterday looked like another 2025 preseason game. 

[mc52beast]

Renfrow is getting paid to go over the middle… WTH was that crap yesterday.

[LinvilleGorge]

Just now, mc52beast said:

Speaking of preseason, I remember people saying preseason doesn’t mean anything, even when you go 0-3. Yesterday looked like another 2025 preseason game. 

The record doesn't matter in preseason. It really doesn't matter whose camp bodies win out on the scoreboard. But the eye test certainly matters, especially when you're a bad team. If you're a good team you can kinda brush it off. But a bad team needing to change course and develop confidence? Going out there and having your starters and primary backups looking like unwashed ass is a big red flag.

[Proudiddy]

After Corbett, Bryce was THE worst player on the field yesterday.  And they have him at 71 and 3rd best on offense?? Must be the same guy that credited him with all those “big time throws” he led the league in after coming back from his benching.

[Waldo]

We just drafted most of a draft class based on this crap. Might just be Tet in the end. Some of those grades are mind boggling

[jopie87]

Dyslexia strikes again. Bryce was a 17.

[Camp Fodder]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

I think these are preseason game grades.

I think the team thinks it’s still preseason