The Panthers’ Bryce Young Problem is Getting Old

[TylerDurden]

A deep dive into some advanced analytics to demonstrate just how truly horrible Bryce Young actually is.  Really brings into question what kind of organization would keep trying to push this guy as an NFL player, let alone a franchise QB/starter.  This find is courtesy of @frankw , who shared it in the MMF thread last night.  And boy, is it damning.

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-week-1-recap-bryce-young-panthers/
 

Bryce Young completed only 51% of his passes for 4.4 YPA in Week 1.

The only QBs who were worse were a rookie starting vs one of the best defenses in the NFL (Cam Ward) and Russell Wilson behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

Even if you remove the interceptions, Young ranked #28 in success (32%) and #25 in EPA per attempt (-0.24).

If we just want to look at the simplest of passes, those thrown five air yards or less, Young completed just 56% of attempts (#29) with a 13% success rate (#29), -0.54 EPA per attempt, and a mere 2.8 yards per attempt (#27).

This was despite playing most of the game in garbage time on account of his terrible early game performance putting his team in a 20-3 deficit at halftime.

The Jaguars defense kept things very vanilla for Young.

They didn’t blitz on nearly 80% of dropbacks and played no blitz zone on 72%, the #4 highest rate any quarterback faced.

Young wasn’t even pressured often, taking pressure on just 28% of dropbacks thanks to how soft the Jaguars played him.

Keep in mind, this Jaguars pass defense ranked #29 in the NFL last year.

If we try to throw out garbage time entirely, I looked at QB performance in the first half when not pressured.

Out of 30 qualifying QBs in Week 1, Young ranked:

• Dead last in EPA (-0.60)
• Dead last in success rate (20%)
• Dead last in Y/A at 3.6
• Dead last in passer rating at 27.5

How are you averaging just 3.6 Y/A on unpressured dropbacks in the first half of a game?

Thinking back to that halftime deficit, I’m reminded of this stat: The Panthers led at halftime in three of Young’s 12 starts last year.

They are now 0 for 1 this year.

In his 29 career starts, the Panthers have led at halftime in 5 of 29 (17%).

Since 2000, there have been 37 QBs to start at least 25 games in their first two years in the NFL.

Young is the ONLY QB to lead at halftime in fewer than six of his starts.

Young is the ONLY QB to lead at halftime in fewer than 20% of his starts.

So many people were backing Young based on the super small sample at the end of the year when they thought he played better, and he did play moderately better.

But even in those games, he delivered average stats against the NFL’s easiest schedule of pass defenses to close the year, with every opponent ranking 20th or worse.

There’s never been a QB who rebounded from performance like Young delivered in his first couple of years to go on to become a franchise quarterback.

Some stay around as a journeyman, but they don’t lead teams.

The Panthers put all their eggs in the Young basket this offseason.

The Panthers were the darlings to win the NFC South by many.

Yes, it’s only one game, and there certainly are opportunities to improve.

But Dave Canales has now had two full offseasons to work with Young.

He should know Young’s strengths and weaknesses and figure out how to optimize Young’s performance.

What pivot do we have after that Week 1 performance?

Surely Canales tried to use his best stuff in Week 1, and it failed miserably.

The schedule is soft, but the clock is ticking, on both Young and this coaching staff if they don’t figure out a solution quickly.
 

This experiment should’ve ended after his rookie year, no matter the investment.  But really, the pick should’ve never been made, as myself and many others here have lamented even before the pick was made, but there’s nothing we can do about that now.  It’s more insulting with every week they continue to trot him out there to not only start, but to play at all on an NFL field.

 

[PleaseCutStewart]

But... but... but... Our receivers suck, it's the defense's fault, the oline should have been better, yadda yadda yadda (I'm sure I'm missing other excuses also)

    -Signed... most of our fans

[Riverboat Ron]

I’ll never forgive them for taking Young over Stroud. A blind man could see Stroud was the right pick during the draft but Tepper gonna Tepper.

[nogoodbum]

Actually, it's an age-old problem. Nobody wants to admit they were wrong & don't do anything to correct, thinking tomorrow will prove them right. The problem blew up to outer space levels as the internet expands with the problem reaches almost every facet of life as we know it. I recall the levels of hype preceding the Fitterer/Frank/Young combo that was going to rule the NFL for years. Hundreds of Huddle pages & thousands of posts over the past 3 years later, there are still posters who still point fingers, never admitting any failure on their part.

[Moose Hoover]

Trade for josh allen or lamar jackson or burrows or bailei zappa or graham mertz or jake haenoer

[PadresPanthersFan]

Fwiw we now theoretically have a situation where we can just drop a qb that doesn't suck and they can succeed.  

We have a good o line

We have a good run game with chuba

We might have an alpha wr with t Mac. 

We have some questions with upside in jt, Coker, horn and for now renfrow.

We just need a qb who isn't absolute cheeks

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, PadresPanthersFan said:

Fwiw we now theoretically have a situation where we can just drop a qb that doesn't suck and they can succeed.  

We have a good o line

We have a good run game with chuba

We might have an alpha wr with t Mac. 

We have some questions with upside in jt, Coker, horn and for now renfrow.

We just need a qb who isn't absolute cheeks

Good luck convincing the handful of remaining Bryce excuse factories of that.

[Jackie Lee]

This dork feels differently lol. 

 

[Panthers Fan 69]

2 hours ago, Riverboat Ron said:

I’ll never forgive them for taking Young over Stroud. A blind man could see Stroud was the right pick during the draft but Tepper gonna Tepper.

It’s funny. There are still people on this board that will suck the panthers off alll day. They can’t do no wrong. It’s cute. Those that still support Tepper…why?

[Waldo]

7 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

This dork feels differently lol. 

 

He didn't account for the missed opportunity throws where guys were wide open but not thrown to when adding in those 10 catches. 

With Bryce it's always weighted but in a favorable light. That poo is so old. How about 'just stop trying g to throw to XL' and call it within the norm at that point.

 

[LinvilleGorge]

12 minutes ago, Waldo said:

He didn't account for the missed opportunity throws where guys were wide open but not thrown to when adding in those 10 catches. 

With Bryce it's always weighted but in a favorable light. That poo is so old. How about 'just stop trying g to throw to XL' and call it within the norm at that point.

 

The guy was a #1 overall pick that we traded a fortune to get. When you make that move you realize it's going to create other roster holes and you're betting that this guy is going to carry the team through those holes. That's the bet you're making to make that move. Then you still have people complaining that we don't have a roster of all pros everywhere else to carry the guy. Just stop. We made a terrible bet and we lost the house on it. It is what it is.

[UnluckyforSome]

Astute observers know that Young is a starting NFL qb in name only. The data points only verify what most can plainly see. Now, how about some big time throws?

[Waldo]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

The guy was a #1 overall pick that we traded a fortune to get. When you make that move you realize it's going to create other roster holes and you're betting that this guy is going to carry the team through those holes. That's the best you're making to make that move. Then you still have people complaining that we don't have a roster of all pros everywhere else to carry the guy. Just stop. We made a terrible bet and we lost the house on it. It is what it is.

It's so weak. They will play someone soon who comes in off of a lazy weak after watching our film and it will be all amazing over mid level stuff agaisnt a team having a crap day again too. It damn sure is what it is.

Also are drops automatically on the WRs? Do they not get an adjustment for getting their hands on poorly thrown balls too?

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, Waldo said:

It's so weak. They will play someone soon who comes in off of a lazy weak after watching our film and it will be all amazing over mid level stuff agaisnt a team having a crap day again too. It damn sure is what it is.

Also are drops automatically on the WRs? Do they not get an adjustment for getting their hands on poorly thrown balls too?

To me a "drop" is a perfectly thrown ball to an open receiver, not a contested catch, not a ball that could've been caught with a Herculean effort, etc. There's a difference between a "drop" and a ball that should've been caught and a ball that maybe could've been caught. Not even Bryce's mom would've watched that game and counted 10 drops. That's just an absurd argument to make.