Playoffs!? You wanna talk about playoffs!?

[ProcessBlue2]

So, Carolina (7-6) goes into a Bye Week while they sit on top of the NFCS with Tampa Bay (7-5).

For those that don’t know here is how the tiebreaking procedures work for the Division:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

The Panthers are currently 7-6 with a 2-1 record in the division and a 5-3 record in the NFC.

The Bucs are currently 7-5 with a 2-0 record in the division and 5-3 record in the NFC.

*Should the Panthers make it to Tiebreaker #5 they will almost certainly lose since this team enjoys winning in the final minute each week. Hopefully, they can avoid letting it go that far.

Remaining Schedules:

The Panthers round out their schedule with:

·       Bye Week

·       @ New Orleans (2-10)

·       VS Tampa Bay (7-5)

·       VS Seattle (9-3)

·       @ Tampa Bay (7-5)

Tampa will round out their schedule with:

·       VS New Orleans (2-10)

·       VS Atlanta (4-8)

·       @ Carolina (7-6)

·       @ Miami (5-7)

·       VS Carolina (7-6)

So to make this even more complicated, you need to cheer for the Saints this week and be prepared to hate them next week. Hopefully, them, the Falcons, or the Dolphins can give us a hand along the way.

Conclusion:

The easiest path forward is to beat New Orleans and sweep the Bucs. However, that would be too easy so we may need some help from our cousins in Georgia and Louisiana. Personally, I think Miami may give Tampa some problems since it looks like they are starting to turn their season around. But knowing us, we will find a way to lose to the Saints and somehow beat Seattle just to keep things interesting. There is 1 quarter of the football season left, and the way I have it figured that’s kind of how our playoff chances go over the next 4 games:

By finishing:

·       1-3: (Eliminated, even if one wins against Tampa, it won’t matter)

·       2-2: (50% chance depending on who we beat, if Seattle/New Orleans- No. If Tampa both times, maybe if not likely, would still need some help from somebody on their schedule).

·       3-1: (Very likely if not certainly. Would mean sweeping the Bucs and either the Saints/Seahawks OR beating Saints/Seahawks with at least one win against the Bucs)

·       4-0: (Dust off your Sunday best and clip your nails, we are hosting a playoff game!)

So get ready for meaningful football in December, because it’s here for the first time in a long while.

[jfra78]

It will probably be head to head to determine the division winner since I believe we would have to win both to have a chance

[LinvilleGorge]

17% odds

Better than the 0% chance that I figured we'd have at this point, but we're basically counting on the Bucs to poo the bed.

[07579394]

Win aints,and sweep Bucs,then we will be the NFCS champion,it's a head to head matchup.

[L-TownCat]

54 minutes ago, ProcessBlue2 said:

So get ready for meaningful football in December

This should be the feather in our collective cap.  Regardless of how it plays out.  We aren’t bitching about tanking or mock drafting.  Unbelievably, we are still in this thing.  
 

…damn this season is weird.

[Manna]

Kind of reminds me of the 2008 season. Maybe the game against the Bucs will get flexed and Chuba and Rico will run all over TB for the division title. 

[amcoolio]

Its not happening, the Saints loss really killed their chances. We have to sweep TB and beat either the Saints or Seahawks to get it in, and I just don't see this team doing that

[dep]

23 minutes ago, amcoolio said:

Its not happening, the Saints loss really killed their chances. We have to sweep TB and beat either the Saints or Seahawks to get it in, and I just don't see this team doing that

Outside of the Hawks and SF the bucs havent beat anybody worth talking about so who knows.

[countryboi]

we said we wanna play meaningful football in December well we going to get the chance, because we are going to have to sweep the Bucs and beat new Orleans

[TylerDurden]

Was looking at a Bill Barnwell article on it earlier and the FPI has Tampa with a 70.2 % chance to win the division and us at 20.8%.

I do feel better knowing if we can get to 10 wins, and maybe even 9 depending on what happens above us, we hold tiebreakers over 3 of those teams - and that’s not even knowing what Tampa will do outside of our games, but I hope they have a meltdown.

[strato]

17 minutes ago, Proudiddy said:

Was looking at a Bill Barnwell article on it earlier and the FPI has Tampa with a 70.2 % chance to win the division and us at 20.8%.

I do feel better knowing if we can get to 10 wins, and maybe even 9 depending on what happens above us, we hold tiebreakers over 3 of those teams - and that’s not even knowing what Tampa will do outside of our games, but I hope they have a meltdown.

They hold the division record tiebreaker, I think. Maybe it is conference, but they hold it. We would need to sweep them to hope to take that out of play in case of a tie record wise. 
So there is your basis for those odds. 

[R0CKnR0LLA]

Basically HAVE to sweep the Bucs, no way around that. Then win one of the other two and you're in.

Assuming we beat the Saints, the Seahawks game is largely irrelevant.

[strato]

1 hour ago, Proudiddy said:

Was looking at a Bill Barnwell article on it earlier and the FPI has Tampa with a 70.2 % chance to win the division and us at 20.8%.

I do feel better knowing if we can get to 10 wins, and maybe even 9 depending on what happens above us, we hold tiebreakers over 3 of those teams - and that’s not even knowing what Tampa will do outside of our games, but I hope they have a meltdown.

That is largely based on how difficult it is to sweep a division home and away matchup. Because we probably would have to do that. 
Doubt we’d be favored in either one. 

[TylerDurden]

3 hours ago, strato said:

That is largely based on how difficult it is to sweep a division home and away matchup. Because we probably would have to do that. 
Doubt we’d be favored in either one. 

Damn.  This feels a lot like the Wilks year all of a sudden.  I know we didn’t have to sweep them, but everything hinging on what we do against Tampa.  Sigh…