shough vs tmac off rookie of the year

[cranky]

21 minutes ago, strato said:

So, we could evaluate every QB in the league against each other without penalty, but when we include Bryce in a comparison, we lose the fan card. That is the rule?

I knew it was coming. 

It would nice if people could remain rational. 

I put actual muners up showing how CRA is totally wrong with his claim that Shough leads Young. Not only did I include their stats, but I included every QB around them. Not sure how that is not being rational. 

[t96]

18 minutes ago, CRA said:

it still gets really weird when folks want to not isolate numbers for backups that enter a games and log 0 pass yards.  It distorts all of their stats if you compare them to actual starters. 

Shough is 4-3 as a starter on a very bad team.  In this starts he is:

68% for 237 passing yards and 19 rush per game. 9 TDs.  6 TOs. 

That's dang good play for a 2nd round pick thrust into the role midseason on a bad team.  It flat out is what it is.  

Shough flat out deserves some props.  If folks here can't do that, it's just Saints hatred or Bryce insecurity preventing football talk.  I mean, he is producing.  Carrying a big load and winning.  In the type scenario people use to justify excusing Bryce's entire rookie year (minus the playcaller, Shough has that)

ALL THAT SAID, he is too late to the convo.  It's a 2 man race.   Last 2 games likely decide between the WRs. 

 

 

I brought up games played because of how few he’s played so you further my point with the “backup” games. Ok yards go up from 190ish to 237 average, still not some amazing average. They’re pretty pass heavy.

 

Don't get me wrong he’s had a good rookie season, especially for a 2nd round pick. That doesn’t mean he should be anywhere near OROY discussions.

[CRA]

6 minutes ago, cranky said:

I put actual muners up showing how CRA is totally wrong with his claim that Shough leads Young. Not only did I include their stats, but I included every QB around them. Not sure how that is not being rational. 

as a starter, Shough is better this year in all the aspects I shared with you.  Facts. You disputed nothing I said because I’m talking starts and my numbers are right 

[MasterAwesome]

9 minutes ago, CRA said:

It's only made up in your mind because you choose not to read words.  As starters in 2025. 

Comp % - Shough

Pass yards per game - Shough

Rush yards per game - Shough

QB rating - Shough 

Yards per attempt - Shough

TDs per game - Young

Turnovers per game - Young

Bryce is a #1 overall pick, year 3 starter.  Shough is a 2nd round rookie nobody on a worse team.  That my friend, is a red flag of a team doing it wrong.  That team is us.  

and we shouldn't be talking Shough in terms of making BY look bad.  We should be talking about the Carolina kid Drake "Drake Maye" Maye making us look really bad. 

 

Please don't tell me you just averaged the QB ratings of all of Shough's starts to declare his QB rating as better  I hope you don't actually believe that's how it works.  Otherwise please show your math on Shough's QB rating as a starter.

Thanks for including Shough's 2.6 more Rushing YPG in this comparison, really doesn't feel at all like you're desperately grasping for as many straws as you can here.

The truth is, it takes a statistical bottom-tier starting QB like Bryce Young to make Shough look simply OK by comparison.  And that bottom-tier starting QB still, by your own admission, puts up more points for his offense than Shough.  You're framing this as damning for Bryce, but in reality the fact that him and Bryce are so neck-and-neck is shining Shough in a very poor light.

Yes Shough is a rookie and Young is a 3rd year starter, which is why I circle back to my position of Shough having a "pretty solid, encouraging rookie season" whereas you're fanboying over him.  Never mind that Shough is 2 years older than Bryce though.  Normally yes a QB's experience in the league is invaluable...but Bryce is kind of a unique situation considering the biggest complaint with him is he is too physically limited to succeed in the league.  Do we think a QB can overcome severe physical limitations simply with experience?  Also I remember wayyyy back (/s) when we cared so much about DJ Johnson being an older rookie and our standard for them being that they're more NFL-ready and able to contribute sooner rather than later.  But now all of a sudden Shough is just a poor little 26-year-old rookie on an awful team. 

Seriously...the way you frame everything around Shough is straight out of a fanfic.  Constantly referencing with tears in your eyes how he's succeeding against all odds on such an awful team.  Meanwhile the Saints' D is 14th in PPG and their offense (led by Shough) is 29th in PPG.  Telling me how the Saints managed a win on Shough's shoulders against the Jets last week who put up...*checks notes*...6 points against the Saints' D.  Yes god bless the savior Shough who willed his team to victory against those juggernauts led by Brady Cook.  Never mind how Taysom Hill threw as many touchdowns in 1 passing attempt as Shough did in 49 passing attempts.  Yikes.

[cranky]

28 minutes ago, CRA said:

as a starter, Shough is better this year in all the aspects I shared with you.  Facts. You disputed nothing I said because I’m talking starts and my numbers are right 

Since your being selective (and somewhat deceptive) with your comparisons, I'll throw this up so we can compare apples to apples.

Both Young and Shough have played against the Rams.

Young went: 15/20 (75%) for 191 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs with a 147.1 QB rating

Shough went: 15/24 (62.5%) for 176 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT with a 81.2 QB rating

 

Both Young and Shough have played against the Buccs.

Young went: 21/32 (65%) for 206 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs with a 102.5 QB rating

Shough went: 13/20 (65%) for 176 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT with a 65.4 QB rating

 

Both Young and Shough have played against the Falcons.

Young went: 31/45 (75%) for 448 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs with a 123.2 rating

Shough went: 30/43 (69.7%) for 243 yards, 0TD, 1 INT with a 74 QB rating

 

Seriously, in what world is Shough a better QB.

Edited 2 hours ago by cranky

[MasterAwesome]

25 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

I'd edited to be more clear where he was ahead of league average, but realize it was easily missed, sorry.  I do hope he falls off a cliff production wise because if he actually continues at this pace it's highly likely the TDs come and then he'll be a real problem.

Anyway, to the stats... Shough is substantially better than the average in completion percentage, YPG, and INT% (68% vs 64.4% and 237 vs 215 and 1.7 vs 2.2). He is pretty close to the average in Y/A (7.14 vs 7.1) and rating (91.63 vs 91.8). He is a bit below the average in TDs per game (1.3 vs ~1.5, which is hard to average exactly due to the number of players that are part of this stat), QBR (51.54 vs 54.7) and quite a bit below in TD% (3% vs 4.7%). In advanced stats, he's above the league average in intended air yards/attempt (8.1 v 7.7) and on target % (76.8 vs 74.6), while barely below is in bad throw % (16.1 vs 16.0). This jives with what I've seen - decent young player, playing at a level that looks like a veteran starter, on a bad team.

I've always said (and this is true of Bryce too, I even mentioned it this year) that I am less concerned with 30+ yard bombs than consistency at 15+ yards, because you need to be able to threaten past the sticks. Shough is doing that. Vs us in week 15 he had ~one third of his passes 15ish or more yards and he was money on them, and that wasn't really an exception, he has had some nice throws outside of that. 

All that said, dude is just super new to the league, and once film gets out, if he does have limitations they will be exploited. No way he can get OROTY.

And thanks for the kind words - I am prone to hyperbole at times, but I'm also just impressed by Shough. We'll see if he can keep it up (I hope not, unless the Saints randomly trade him lol)

Well even if we took diverging paths getting there...our overall assessment of Shough is the same (bolded) lol so I guess that's what matters.  What you call "playing at a level that looks like a veteran starter" is the same thing I'm referencing when I talk about his poise.  Although I still wonder how truly "bad" of a team the Saints are.  Their defense is middle-of-the-road, and their offense does have some good pieces (Olave, Juwan Johnson) outside of running back which is the position most everyone agrees is relatively plug-and-play.  I'm not going to pretend to know anything about the majority of NFL team's o-lines lol but I'm assuming Saints are not great there, although Shough's pressure % seems to have been quite low (and steadily improving) over the last four weeks (20 -> 16.7 -> 15.0 -> 13.0) so maybe they've been playing better as of late, or perhaps Shough himself deserves credit for that.  

Some of the language I'm hearing about Shough, including talking about how he's way above league average in several categories, makes it sound like Shough is having a rookie season on par with like a CJ Stroud who established himself as basically a Top 5-10 QB his rookie season.  Maybe that's on me though, I don't mean to attribute anything to you that I'm sure you don't agree with.

[ForJimmy]

9 minutes ago, cranky said:

Since your being selective (and somewhat deceptive) with your comparisons, I'll throw this up so we can compare apples to apples.

Both Young and Shough have played against the Rams.

Young went: 15/20 (75%) for 191 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs with a 147.1 QB rating

Shough went: 15/24 (62.5%) for 176 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT with a 81.2 QB rating

 

Both Young and Shough have played against the Buccs.

Young went: 21/32 (65%) for 206 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs with a 102.5 QB rating

Shough went: 13/20 (65%) for 176 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT with a 65.4 QB rating

 

Both Young and Shough have played against the Falcons.

Young went: 31/45 (75%) for 448 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs with a 123.2 rating

Shough went: 30/43 (69.7%) for 243 yards, 0TD, 1 INT with a 74 QB rating

 

Seriously, in what world is Shough a better QB.

I think you duplicated Shough's Rams game on his Bucs one.  He was 13/20 144 with an INT but had 55 rushing TDs and a 2 scores.  They won this game with him playing like that.  It's hard to listen to him carrying a team of scrubs when you see data like that...

Edited 1 hour ago by ForJimmy

[mrcompletely11]

22 minutes ago, cranky said:

Since your being selective (and somewhat deceptive) with your comparisons, I'll throw this up so we can compare apples to apples.

Both Young and Shough have played against the Rams.

Young went: 15/20 (75%) for 191 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs with a 147.1 QB rating

Shough went: 15/24 (62.5%) for 176 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT with a 81.2 QB rating

 

Both Young and Shough have played against the Buccs.

Young went: 21/32 (65%) for 206 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs with a 102.5 QB rating

Shough went: 13/20 (65%) for 176 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT with a 65.4 QB rating

 

Both Young and Shough have played against the Falcons.

Young went: 31/45 (75%) for 448 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs with a 123.2 rating

Shough went: 30/43 (69.7%) for 243 yards, 0TD, 1 INT with a 74 QB rating

 

Seriously, in what world is Shough a better QB.

why are you cherry picking stats?  Thats a bit odd.......and telling

[mav1234]

10 minutes ago, MasterAwesome said:

Well even if we took diverging paths getting there...our overall assessment of Shough is the same (bolded) lol so I guess that's what matters.  What you call "playing at a level that looks like a veteran starter" is the same thing I'm referencing when I talk about his poise.  Although I still wonder how truly "bad" of a team the Saints are.  Their defense is middle-of-the-road, and their offense does have some good pieces (Olave, Juwan Johnson) outside of running back which is the position most everyone agrees is relatively plug-and-play.  I'm not going to pretend to know anything about the majority of NFL team's o-lines lol but I'm assuming Saints are not great there, although Shough's pressure % seems to have been quite low (and steadily improving) over the last four weeks (20 -> 16.7 -> 15.0 -> 13.0) so maybe they've been playing better as of late, or perhaps Shough himself deserves credit for that.  

Some of the language I'm hearing about Shough, including talking about how he's way above league average in several categories, makes it sound like Shough is having a rookie season on par with like a CJ Stroud who established himself as basically a Top 5-10 QB his rookie season.  Maybe that's on me though, I don't mean to attribute anything to you that I'm sure you don't agree with.

I think the Saints have some pieces but are overall weak. Last week or the week before their OL was 30th in pass block win rate through the season... But QB play can change a lot there because some of that is assignments for blocking.

I don't think Shough is anywhere near Stroud. If it came off that way, that wasn't intentional. It's one thing to look goodish for 7 games, be above average in some categories. Another to do it all year. And yet another to have one of the best rookie seasons of all time (Stroud).

I think maybe what you're seeing is some folks trying to build up Shough to show how bad Bryce is... Not my intent. I like seeing rookies do well, though I really hope he's fools Gold because of who he plays for. It does sound like we see Shough similarly in objective ways just use different adjectives and focus on different strengths vs weaknesses... Which is fair.

 

[strato]

1 hour ago, cranky said:

I put actual muners up showing how CRA is totally wrong with his claim that Shough leads Young. Not only did I include their stats, but I included every QB around them. Not sure how that is not being rational. 

Irrationality abounds on the subject, whether you suffer from it or not.  
Not always about you. I did not call your name. I did not quote you.

Edited 1 hour ago by strato

[frankw]

Damn them boys letting the poo emojis fly in this thread.

I detest the Saints on a cellular level.

TMac all day.

[CRA]

1 hour ago, MasterAwesome said:

Please don't tell me you just averaged the QB ratings of all of Shough's starts to declare his QB rating as better  I hope you don't actually believe that's how it works.  Otherwise please show your math on Shough's QB rating as a starter.

 

No worries.  I didn’t.  I don’t know what is hard to comprehend.  You can just look at his starts vs literally any other QBs starts and see their production as a starter…. vs letting random late game appearances by QBs skew numbers  

QB rating is 91.6 in his 7 starts.  No math is required on your part.  Or mine. 

but I think what happened….is you are admitting you don’t have or know the  numbers yet are arguing against them.  

[CRA]

56 minutes ago, cranky said:

Since your being selective (and somewhat deceptive) with your comparisons, I'll throw this up so we can compare apples to apples.

Starts vs starts is apples to apples.

starts vs letting 4th and 3rd quarter appearances skew one persons per game stats and not the other is apples and grapefruits. 

[cranky]

44 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

why are you cherry picking stats?  Thats a bit odd.......and telling

Odd that you can't figure out they both played against the same defenses so it is only fair that they be compared against those same defenses. 

Seriously, you couldn't figure that out, especially given I said "apples to apples".