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FO: Panthers most likely candidate for First to Worst

UNCrules2187

By UNCrules2187,
in Carolina Panthers

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UNCrules2187 Mentor

UNCrules2187

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1. Carolina Panthers, 30.0 percent
 
Carolina's likelihood of collapse starts with one of the strongest elements of forecasting in the NFL: Offense is more consistent from year to year than defense. That means a defense-first team such as Carolina is going to have a harder time repeating as division champion than an offense-first team such as Denver. Inconsistency is a bigger issue for the Carolina defense because three-fourths of its starting secondary from 2013 is gone in free agency.
 
There's even more turnover on offense, and it's not exactly a good thing. Left tackle Jordan Gross retired with no clear replacement on the roster. The team turned over almost its entire wide receiver corps and is now depending on a 32-year-old vet coming off a fluke year (Jerricho Cotchery), a rookie who was widely regarded as a talented longer-term project (Kelvin Benjamin) and a serviceable slot receiver who would never scare anyone on the outside (Jason Avant). To top it all off, we rank the Panthers eighth in projected schedule strength, the toughest schedule of any of last year's division champions.

 

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11309846/carolina-panthers-most-likely-team-go-first-worst-2014-nfl

 

Rest of the list:

 

2. Indianapolis Colts, 17.9 percent
3. Cincinnati Bengals, 17.0 percent
4. Philadelphia Eagles, 12.4 percent
5. Green Bay Packers, 8.7 percent
6. New England Patriots, 8.2 percent
7. Seattle Seahawks, 8.1 percent
8. Denver Broncos, 2.3 percent

 

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nctarheel0619 Newbie

nctarheel0619

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over almost its entire wide receiver corps and is now depending on a 32-year-old vet coming off a fluke year (Jerricho Cotchery), a rookie who was widely regarded as a talented longer-term project (Kelvin Benjamin) and a serviceable slot receiver who would never scare anyone on the outside (Jason Avant). 

 

Wow, my head hurts.  I need a beer.  A fluke year?  WTF?  

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UNCrules2187 Mentor

UNCrules2187

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Also, the basement in our division will be what? 7-9 or 6-10? The worst in the afc south will probably have 3 or 4 wins, which would be a shocking drop by the colts.

 

Yep. It's a combination of the relative strength of our division plus our "question marks" (which honestly I only think the stability of the offensive line is a question mark, but we all know what the media thinks). They even mention the AFC South's shittiness:

 

Plus, in the AFC South more than any other division, the chances of a team going 6-10 or worse aren't really the same as its chances of finishing in last place. The last-place team in this division will almost assuredly be 4-12 or worse, and it's hard to imagine the Colts being that team if Luck is healthy.

 

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