Gauging Josh Norman's contract value

[panther4life]

 

 

PLAYER	POS	TEAM	AGE	YRS	DOLLARS	AVERAGE	G'TEED	% G'TEED	FREE AGENT
Darrelle Revis (2015-2019)	CB	NYJ	30	5	$70,121,060	$14,024,212	$39,000,000	55.62%	2020
Patrick Peterson (2016-2020)	CB	ARI	25	5	$70,050,000	$14,010,000	$47,368,114	67.62%	2021
Joe Haden (2015-2019)	CB	CLE	26	5	$67,500,000	$13,500,000	$22,678,193	33.60%	2020
Byron Maxwell (2015-2020)	CB	PHI	28	6	$63,000,000	$10,500,000	$25,000,000	39.68%	2021
Aqib Talib (2014-2019)	CB	DEN	30	6	$57,000,000	$9,500,000	$25,500,000	44.74%	2020
Richard Sherman (2014-2018)	CB	SEA	27	4	$56,000,000	$14,000,000	$40,000,000	71.43%	2019
Brandon Carr (2012-2017)	CB	DAL	29	5	$50,100,000	$10,020,000	$26,500,000	52.89%	2018
Jason McCourty (2012-2017)	CB	TEN	28	6	$43,040,000	$7,173,333	$17,000,000	39.50%	2018
Chris Harris (2015-2019)	CB	DEN	26	5	$42,500,000	$8,500,000	$24,000,000	56.47%	2020

 

All of these comps come from http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/cornerback/

• Revis currently has the highest per year average of just over 14 million per year with Patrick Peterson and Richard sherman barley behind him.
• Peterson leads the way with guaranteed money, right at 47 million.
• Sherman has the highest percentage guaranteed at 71.43%
• Revis was the oldest at time of signing (29), Talib was 28 and Maxwell was 27.

 

Norman was excellent and 1 of the best corners in the game last year.Norman does not have enough proven success to reset the whole market, so it should be safe to assume a deal can be worked out for less than Revis' per year average.

He is better than Byron Maxwell and Jimmy Smith who are both getting over 10 million a year.

So that would put his long term market value of less than 14 million per year but more than 10 million a year. I would think a 4 year deal would satisfy both sides, or even 5 years on paper without the 5th year being voidable.

Norman already stands to gain 14 million Guaranteed for this year under the franchise tag. He will be a year older but a good year will pretty much secure him this amount again with another team if not here in 2017. On the flipside there is injury risk as well, in addition to being a year older next year.

Based on this information I think a reasonable deal both sides could live with would be something like

5 Years 61 million (12.2 Million per year average). With 31 million guaranteed. (15 Million signing bonus, with first 2 years salaries fully guaranteed)

* The signing bonus can be spread over 5 years. If at any point we chose to cut Norman after the 17 season, we would be on the hook for any prorated signing bonus not accounted for against the cap (the recurring 3 million) but not the base salary. 

Contract breakdown of 

2016 Base Salary: 7.75 Million(fully guaranteed), prorated bonus: 3 million = 10.75 Cap

2017 Base salary: 7.75 Million(fully guaranteed), prorated bonus: 3 million = 10.75 Cap hit

2018 Base salary: 8.25 Million, prorated bonus: 3 million                              = 11.25M Cap hit

2019 Base salary: 9.25 Million, prorated bonus: 3 million                             = 12.25M Cap hit

2020 Base salary: 12 Million, prorated bonus: 3 million**voidable year       = 3M Cap hit. 

Compared to the recent contracts above

• This would rank norman 4th in guaranteed money for a corner
• 5th in overall total contract value
• 3rd in guaranteed percentage (57%)

1 Year franchise tag will guarantee Norman $13.952 Million . If we tagged him again the following season, he would be a due a 120% raise raising the tag to 16.74 Million. Adding those 2 numbers together alone equal just over 30.5 Million. Under this proposed contract we could have Norman for 4 years 45 million cap hit(11.25 yearly average), plus an additional 3 million in dead money in 2020. 

Does something like this seem like a fair deal for both sides? Would you be happy with a contract similar to this?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TheSpecialJuan]

Nice work. You need to call up DGettleman immediately.

 

 

 

seriously though, well done

[Bartin]

Norman's agent would just hang up the phone if you offered him that. Gettleman would sign that deal yesterday. They will be looking for at least 14 million APY. The tag sets the floor.

[Toker Smurf]

I was thinking about this the other day   I came up with a deal that I felt would be great for both sides. It was Richard Sherman's deal,  except $38 million guaranteed. 

[JawnyBlaze]

Tag doesn't set the floor. Usually a tagged player signs for less per year than the value of the tag. I think $12mil a year is good for both sides. Long term security for him and plenty of money and the respect of being one of the highest paid CBs. 

[Catweisers]

Moose taught me a little bit about contract years.  His next best year would be when contract was up.

I truly believe Norman is a product of our defensive system!!  The pressure we get from the front 4 gives little time for QB's to set and throw.  Our front 7 can cover a multitude of flaws in DB"s.

That being said, he seems to have no feeling for the team that saw promise in him and gave him chance.  If he can't be happy at 10 mil. a year then go to another team.  Just ask Ginn how that turned out.

[mc52beast]

Should one good year really tell your boss you're worthy of being one of the highest paid at your position... 

[Bartin]

43 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

Tag doesn't set the floor. Usually a tagged player signs for less per year than the value of the tag. I think $12mil a year is good for both sides. Long term security for him and plenty of money and the respect of being one of the highest paid CBs. 

Historically, it does set the floor. The majority of players tagged that sign a long term deal before the year get more than the franchise tag on an APY basis. No one takes demonstrably less.

[mav1234]

I would be surprised if Josh was signed for less than a 12 mill average.  I was expecting ~14 mill, give or take a half a mill depending on duration of contract etc.

[firefox1234]

I don't think JNO takes less than 13m/yr and he has shown no sign he would be interested in a hometown discount

[panthers55]

3 hours ago, Bartin said:

Norman's agent would just hang up the phone if you offered him that. Gettleman would sign that deal yesterday. They will be looking for at least 14 million APY. The tag sets the floor.

I think players will take somewhat less than the tag if they get a big signing bonus and guaranteed money of 50% of the whole deal on a 4 year deal. After all they trade a few million a year for a guaranteed long term deal which protects them if they get injured which is a real possibility for all players. 

[panthers55]

So far he has turned down 7 million not 12 or 13. Everyone postures at contract time but most players want the long-term deal and defensive backs like Norman do best in a scheme like ours.

[Argus Plexus]

I'd be a little pissed with 5 years, 62-67 mil with idk 38-45 mil guaranteed but I'd shut up and be happy to have J-No for five more seasons. If we keep him, the deal will likely be in that range. I don't see why not just sign him instead of tagging him. If we were to give him a contract where he was getting paid the tag money yearly, it would be 5 years 67 mil. If Getts could talk him into maybe knocking a few mil off here or there for the good of the team, we could get one of the premier corners in the league locked down for a high price, but slightly less than other full-retard non-Getts teams would. I hope J-No loves us as much as he says he does, because someone is going to offer him 85 million dollars. Mark my words.

[carpanfan96]

7 hours ago, Catweisers said:

Moose taught me a little bit about contract years.  His next best year would be when contract was up.

I truly believe Norman is a product of our defensive system!!  The pressure we get from the front 4 gives little time for QB's to set and throw.  Our front 7 can cover a multitude of flaws in DB"s.

That being said, he seems to have no feeling for the team that saw promise in him and gave him chance.  If he can't be happy at 10 mil. a year then go to another team.  Just ask Ginn how that turned out.

I think you're giving the front 4 more credit then most would. The Panther's have been more successful blitzing then not blitzing over the past 2 seasons when it comes to pass rushing productivity. 10.5 of teams 44 sacks came from back 7, numerous other sacks came from blitzes that pushed QB's up. The back 7 had 20+ hurries as well this past season. 

 

Since we know he turned down over 7 million last off season and word is the team and agent aren't even close and talks haven't helped so far. It's a good bet he's asking for top NFL CB money right now and with 1.5 seasons as arguably the NFL's top CB...he has that right.