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okay i guess i'll be optimistic

electro's horse

By electro's horse,
in Carolina Panthers

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electro's horse Grand Master

electro's horse

Posted
Posted

Most of you started cheering for this team last season, and others of you have the memory of a goldfish. It's the biggest downsize of Zod's Echo Chamber Hug Box and Pop Up Ads Extravaganza: there's very little sense of context, and the opinion swings are manic. As high as this place was last year, it's that low right now, and in between there's very little opportunity to contextualize, or rationally analyze things. 

So let's hop back to the week after the Panthers 2014 bye. The Panthers had just lost by a field goal to the Minnesota Vikings. Jason Avant, the only WR resembling a veteran who'd been productive in his career, was cut after he criticized the end game play calling. Cam Newton was hurt. An ankle surgery performed in the offseason had been undone by the usual wear and tear, as well as a dirty play by Vontaze Burfict. His mechanics were falling apart, and the expected next level step was failing to materialize. The tackle position was a complete disaster, as the players Carolina was forced to trot out could hardly be described as replacement level. They weren't talented at the position to begin with, and after injuries began to consume what was actually there, things became.... absolutely macabre. Most grating to the fans and this board, prior to the start of the season, Dave Gettleman cut probably the most beloved Panthers of all time. 

On the other side of the ball, things weren't much better. After signing his franchise tag, Greg Hardy, the second best player on defense and the reason the unit was so good the year before, was essentially suspended for the season for beating his girlfriend half to death. In probably the lowest point on this board's history, dozens of posters tripped all over one another seeing who could yell SLUT the loudest, and screamed everything was a massive liberal conspiracy and that Gettleman had betrayed them. Across from where Hardy would have played, Charles Johnson continued to succumb to entropy and soft tissue injuries. The secondary was a collection cast offs, has beens, and never weres. There were some young players with promise, but no one that could be trusted (looking at you Josh Norman). The huddle melted down as untalented hacks like Charles Godfrey were cut midseason. 

Most importantly, the knives were out for Ron Rivera. The Panthers were staring at his 3rd losing season in 4 attempts. All the coaching gains he seemed to have made towards the end of 2013 were quickly vanishing as he retreated into more conservative play calling. Faced with a far less talented team on both sides of the ball than what they had planned for, the Panthers simplified their gameplans. On defense, they were forced to abandon the exotic blitzes of the season prior and play more of a john fox style, keep it in front of you strategy. Unfortunately they didn't have that pressure from the end, and what was resulting were endless long marches down the field with fans hoping to god that Kuechly could pull something out of his ass. On offense, without the ability to protect their QB, the Panthers doubled down on the run game. Pass blocking schemes can expose untalented players. Run block? Put your head down and hit that dude. 

Things aren't good right now. As I see it, there are three issues. 

- injuries where they can least be sustained

- tough early schedule

- players in the NFL get very old very fast

These are not ranked. Nothing is more important than the other. These all feed into and are fed by each other. It is asinine to focus on one over the others. 

But Fiz, you might ask, why not Josh Norman? What about the Panthers not signing a free agent? What about Dave Gettleman being literally Turbo Hitler McRapeStalinTrump? 

I'll get to that. 

First, let's talk about injuries, specifically in the secondary and the tackle position. Every single team in the NFL has positions where they have more depth than others. The Panthers had their best offense since 1998 without their best wide receiver last year. As improbable as it is to think about, the Panthers had enough talent to overcome that loss. Horrifying as it is to think about, Kuechly and Davis could both go down, and the Panthers could probably absorb it. At least far better than they've been able to afford the injury to Michael Oher. Oher being out with his concussion has forced Remmers to play out of position. On the right side he's serviceable. On the left side, he's a liability. Replacing him is Daryl Williams, who's not looking like much of a player. One injury, two positions. 

The Panthers didn't use very complicated schemes last season in the secondary. Late in the season, when the "smart twitter football community" started seriously paying attention, they main thing they noticed is how WELL the Panthers played together; how their spacing was perfect. Sure, Norman made tons of amazing plays the first month of the season, but the strength of the Panthers secondary was how they played as a unit. This requires players that know what they're doing. It's why Cortland Finnegan was able to join the roster towards the end of the season and contribute without missing a beat. He'd been around forever, knew every coverage in the world, and could do what Bene was doing. It was scheme and team work that led to their success, not a bunch of cowboys manning up one on one every play.

Competence and consistency in the secondary, not outstanding individual performances, is what made it such a good unit. The only way you can get this is by playing together, and injuries have made that impossible. The Panthers are trotting out a different set of starting DBs every single week. Different players are being forced to play different positions. Certain players are being exposed as incompetent (tre Boston), some as physically toast (bene), and others as pressing too hard (coleman). With no one playing particularly well, the rookies have no one to look up to. The youth factor is like some shitty force multiplier. Yeah, not only is everyone getting hurt and never in the same position, but there's no one in the secondary to look towards in the middle of the game for help. There's no Luke Kuechly telling everyone where to line up. 

So now you have players that are inexperienced, don't play well together, and can't handle any complicated schemes. How can the Panthers install schemes to trick QBs if they can't handle basic ones? How can you try to disguise your coverages if there's a different player in the position every single week. Injuries cause bad play cause simple defense causes bad play causes simple defenses causes bad play etc etc etc

And this is the most difficult part for a lot of you to swallow. It would not matter if Josh Norman was out there. Let's assume that no one is screaming over losing Roman Harper and Courtland Finnegan. Let's just pretend the Panthers decided to roll with Boston at FS, and Bradberry at LCB. But Bradberry still gets hurt, and Worley gets hurt, and Bene is still toast, and Boston is still garbage, and McClain gets hurt, and there's still no pressure to hide this, etc etc etc. The rotating door at DB still weakens the unit.

But Fiz, they wouldn't be as bad! Yeah, but what's the point of stacking the poo at the bottom of the barrel? What's the effective difference between the 32nd ranked pass defense and the 27th?

More importantly, what's the difference between a defense with Josh Norman and no one else in the secondary versus a defense with no one in the secondary? Well, it looks like 22nd v 23rd. 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

Injuries have depleted this team far more than losing one player. 

Now, in the NFL, people get very old very quickly. Bill Parcells famously said he would rather cut a player a year too early than a year too late. Your best personnel men in the league live and die by this axiom. Panthers fans know about this all too well. I've written paper bricks about the fall of the Hurney regime, and one of the biggest reasons was he couldn't say goodbye to players. It's just part of the game. There is no gradual decline in the NFL. One second you have it, and the next you don't. 

The Panthers have a lot of players that don't have it anymore. Mike Tolbert is toast. Mike Remmers, on top of being shell shocked at LT, might just be done in general. Bene fell off a cliff and was disposed of. Charles Johnson has stopped his slow decline, but only because he's hit bottom. Stew doesn't have that pop anymore. Kony probably never had it. It's very reminiscent to 2006, when like half of the core of the 2003 SB run hit the wall at once. 

Gettleman likes to draft in waves. Problem at DT? invest and get one. Problem at WR? Spend high and get them. It's a fine strategy and one I personally prefer. However, if there's a criticism to be made, he hasn't really spread the wealth around very much. It's fine for the core of the defense, which is still very good. The only problem is the young talent isn't dispersed. You can only play so many linebackers or DTs at once. There's no up and comer at offensive tackle, or safety, or running back.

Our DTs, WR, and linebackers are set. Everything else? Ehhhhhh. And that's before the injuries come back in. All of a sudden, guys that were special teamers are now starters, and dudes that were on the street are special teamers. And now you don't have people that can step up and replace Mike Tolbert, or Charles Johnson, and you can't make any moves because you've got the rest of the team to worry about as well. These problems feed into one another. It's cyclical. There's no magic fix now.

The last problem facing this team is a simple one: the other teams practice too, guys. In the first three weeks of the season, the Panthers played the two best defenses in the NFL. Not only are those defenses good, they're good where the Panthers are weakest, which is at offensive tackle. Kubiak was going to outsmart the Panthers defense no matter who was playing QB him or CB for Carolina, and Bradford and Norv is a match made in heaven. There's no shame in losing those games. The Panthers weren't going to go 15-1 again. 

Then with the secondary reeling, Julio Jones entered the Marix and had the game of his life. Then the Panthers, without their starting QB, barely lost to the Bucs. Then on a short week they had to go into a place they never play well and the defense got lit up by the Saints, which happened twice last season, once with Luke McCown at QB!

It's a hard way to start a season!

And with everything that's gone wrong, 3 field goals go the other way, and the Panthers are 4-2. It's a funny game.

After the Vikings loss in 2014, the Panthers hit an easy stretch of schedule. No one else in the NFC South was doing much. The Panthers were able to find some stability in the secondary, made some big plays, and were able to finish the season on a four game winning streak. At the end of November, it looked like the Falcons and Saints would be competing for the playoff spot. The Panthers effectively won two playoff games to get into the post season, and beat another team that was falling apart at the wrong time. The progress and momentum from the end of the season carried into next, much like the end of the 2002 season. Young players emerged that would play big roles in the 2015 run. 

Next week the Panthers, as healthy as they'll be the rest of the year and coming off a bye, start a stretch of five very winnable games. They will play the Cardinals, @Rams, Chiefs, Saints, and @Raiders. These are all winnable games. Cardinals have problems, Rams don't have a QB, Alex Smith doesn't threaten any secondary, we know about the Saints, and the Raiders have the worst defense in the NFL. 

I'm not predicting the Panthers will be 6-5 when they go into Seattle a month from now. But the opportunity is there. This coach, this GM, and many of these players have pulled it off before.

First they have to get healthy. Then they have to get experience together.

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shaka Mentor

shaka

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, mjligon said:

Ok I'll start.

 

TLDR

Here you go in bullet form:

  • Nip Shorts drafts in bunches, and solved our depth issues at LB, DT and WR
  • The downside is some spots are really thin, like OT
  • OT depth is weak so with Oher down we replaced two positions from one injury
  • Norman wouldn't help that much because Bradberry, Worly and McClain all get hurt while Bene and Boston stink
  • We are 1-5 but we could have just as easily been 4-2
  • Chimpanzees often use sticks as crude tools
  • We have some winnable games coming up and our team has bounced back from similar situations
  • My neighbor recently overhead me yell "Can you believe I've never eaten this booty before?" at my wife while I was holding a bag of pirates booty.  I didn't know the windows were open.  I looked my neighbor right in her eyes and said:

welcome_to_the_fucking_show.gif

And I ate it like I was a diabetic and that booty had insulin in it.  Things are pretty awkward now. 

 

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