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Panthers record when scoring first since 2011. SPOILER: The Panthers are really bad playing from behind

hepcat

By hepcat,
in Carolina Panthers

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hepcat Grand Master

hepcat

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Since Cam Newton was drafted in 2011, the Panthers are a very good 39-14-1 when they score first including playoff games. That includes field goals and safeties.

In this same time period, the Panthers are 13-26 when the opposing team scores first, including playoff games.

If the Panthers score first, there's a ~74% chance the Panthers will win. If the opposing team scores first, there's a ~33% chance the Panthers win. 

#math

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KSpan Grand Master

KSpan

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Pretty much in line with statistics across the NFL, according to this guy anyway. Data are from 2008 but I imagine haven't changed much since his sample size was games in 2000-2007. @hepcat, you should change your title to "NFL teams really bad when playing from behind".

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/08/win-probability.html

Quote

The graph below is my own first cut at WP for the NFL. It is based on all regular season games from the 2000 through 2007 seasons. For the most common score differentials, it plots the WP of the team with possession of the ball. For example, the top curve, labeled +7, is the WP for a team that is winning by 7 points, and has the ball, at each minute remaining in a game. The -7 curve, at the bottom, is the WP for a team trailing by 7 points and has the ball.

It does not factor in field position or down and distance situations. So, this should be considered a baseline and not a finished product. But already we can see some interesting things.

2734218964_3d8176026a.jpg?v=0

 

 

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KB_fan Proficient

KB_fan

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Thanks to all of you who are posting interesting stats... so wish I could be participating more, but my work life is still utterly crazy.  There's some light at the end of the tunnel though.  Hoping that after another 7 - 10 more days I'll have a lot more flexibility in my schedule and more free time I can devote to Panthers stat crunching!

 

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CPantherKing Grand Master

CPantherKing

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2 hours ago, KSpan said:

Pretty much in line with statistics across the NFL, according to this guy anyway. Data are from 2008 but I imagine haven't changed much since his sample size was games in 2000-2007. @hepcat, you should change your title to "NFL teams really bad when playing from behind".

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/08/win-probability.html

2734218964_3d8176026a.jpg?v=0

 

 

 

And that is exactly why it is crucial the offense gets the lead going into the half and the defense does not give up a lead in the 2nd half.

Since 2011, the Panthers have led after the 1st half in 51 of 87 games.

  • 22-3 in games leading by more than a TD at the half. (18-0 from 2012 to 2015)
  • 35-10 in games leading by more than a FG at the half.
  • 38-13 in games with any lead at the half.
  • 9-22-1 in games trailing at the half.

The Patriots, Seahawks, and Broncos are the only teams over that period that have a .400+ record when trailing at the half. The Patriots are the only team with a winning record when trailing at the half (11-9).

That is why the loses with the Panthers defense giving up leads in the 2nd half to the Broncos and Vikings were so painful - especially the 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter of the Broncos game.

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iBBB Newbie

iBBB

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4 hours ago, gtanaka said:

Is no one going to comment how the percentages add up to 107% and not 100? #math

I think the wording is misleading. 

What the OP meant by those percentages is that we won 74% of the games when scoring first (39 wins out of 54 total games = 74%)

Also, we only won 33% of the games when not scoring first (13 wins out of 39 games = 33%)

So pretty much what is basically said here, there were a total of 93 games played. In 54 of them, we got the lead first and won 39 of them). In the other 39 games remaining, we didn't score first, and only won 13 of them. 

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