Would you trade back?

[SmokinwithWilly]

I've been doing several mocks on first-pick, since that site offers trades, and have been toying with the idea of trading back in the draft, and how far I would really like to go. But before I could toy with the idea of moving back. It's kind of important to figure out the first six picks. Of course all of this is pre combine and we don't know the defensive scheme yet. In order to talk about possibly trading back, I figured I needed to set up the scenarios I saw possible. This is my first ever mock draft, but I tried to make it as realistic as I could, looking at team needs and real trade values and asking myself would they actually do it. I think it's worth the discussing the possibility, even for fun with a couple months to go before the draft. So to set up the trade, here's my first 6 picks. 

 

1. Cincinnati - Burrows - I can't really see anyone else going here unless someone offers the farm, then it's going to still be for a QB and it will still be Burrows

 

2. Washington - Young - RR is not going to pass up the opportunity to grab Chase Young. He lives and dies by his D, and the best defender in this draft goes here. 

 

3. Detroit - Brown - This is where things start to change a little. Simmons or Okudah are likely, but I won't ignore the possibility of Brown here. I think they go with Brown to provide a core to build that defense around. 

 

4. NY Giants - Jeudy - Dave loves his hog mollies and if Brown is available, he could be the pick. Thomas is possible also. My gut tells me though he will surprise and take Jeudy. He has Barkley and Jones, now he needs a receiver. Tackles are risky, so are corners, and with his job on the line this season, I think Nippleshorts make the safe sure bet for maximum quick impact and gives his young QB a game changing WR. 

 

5. Miami - Tua - Miami needs a QB. Tua is the pick. They just traded away Tunsil so drafting another OT here makes no sense. That team is hot garbage. Tua will give the franchise hope again.

 

6. LA Chargers - Hebert - Rivers is out, Hebert is in. The only other option here I see as possible is grabbing a tackle. Having graded in the bottom 5 for OL (depending where you look) Thomas, Wills or Wirfs could be the choice, but not likely. 

 

This leaves Carolina sitting at 7 with Okudah (CB) Simmons (LB) Thomas(OT) or Wills (OT) as the top players that Carolina would pick. So then the question becomes who would realistically trade up? Not Arizona, if they want a tackle, they get 1 of the top 2 without moving. The 3 teams that could want to move are Jacksonville (9,20), Jets (11), and Raiders (12,19). 

 

First would be Jacksonville. Trade Carolina 1st(7) for Jacksonville 1st(9) and 3rd(73). Okudah and Simmons would both fill a need. Ironically enough, Carolina may need both as well with Luke retiring and Bradberry possibly walking in FA. If they're afraid we might take the guy they really want, they make make a move. Of the 3, this is the least likely to move. 

 

Second, the J-E-T-S. Trade Carolina 1st(7) for NY Jets 1st(11), 3rd(68) and 4th(110). The Jets need a tackle to protect Darnold and with Carolina needing a tackle, as well as Cleveland, both top tackles could be gone. 3 picks is a lot to give up for a team with a lot of needs, but landing a potential franchise LT could be tempting. 

 

Third, the Raiders. Trade Carolina 1st(7) and 2nd(38) for Raiders 1st(12) and (19). I see this actually being really possible. With Simmons and Okudah/Brown(whichever Det doesn't pick) available, the Raiders could make a move. They need a corner desperately and Okudah is gifted. They would also get an early 2nd rounder to grab one of the surprise guys that falls out of the 1st. Gruden may jump at the chance to get an elite playmaker, and Mayock will recognize the value in grabbing a guy that could have gone top 3, as well as someone who they thought would be available at 19. This could really be beneficial to both teams. 

 

So the picks would continue, IMO, like this with Carolina making the trade that makes the most sense to me with the Raiders. 

 

7. Las Vegas - Okudah. Immediately fills one of the teams biggest needs with a guy that has all the measurables. Think Jalen Ramsey or Patrick Peterson possibilities. 

8. Arizona - Wills - Fitz is a shell of his former self. The Cards need a receiver, but need to protect their QB and they make the move for Wills.

9. Jacksonville - Simmons - Jacksonville has 2 top needs in CB and LB and this pick fits the bill. 

10. Cleveland - Thomas - Cleveland needs o-line help. Thomas is a pretty simple pick at this point

11. NY Jets - Wirfs - Oline help needed again and Wirfs, while not the most athletic, could be an anchor tackle in the NFL.

12. Carolina - Javon Kinlaw - Carolina needs a DT and this guy is really impressing. He's driven and his work ethic reminds me of TD. He could be "that guy" for this defense.

 

and with 19. Carolina - Mekhi Becton - We need a tackle and this guy has all the measurables to do that. He needs to lose some weight, but he is fluid for a guy his size. Draws comparisons to Bryant McKinnie. Projected mid to late 1st round right now, but could change after the combine. 

 

Overall, 12 is as far down as I'm willing to move with our first pick and the Raiders would make the most sense as a trading partner if we did move.

 

Thoughts on making a move with the Raiders? Is there another team that might be a better trade partner? Or is the idea of trading back lunacy?

[TheSpecialJuan]

Just now, SmokinwithWilly said:

I've been doing several mocks on first-pick, since that site offers trades, and have been toying with the idea of trading back in the draft, and how far I would really like to go. But before I could toy with the idea of moving back. It's kind of important to figure out the first six picks. Of course all of this is pre combine and we don't know the defensive scheme yet. In order to talk about possibly trading back, I figured I needed to set up the scenarios I saw possible. This is my first ever mock draft, but I tried to make it as realistic as I could, looking at team needs and real trade values and asking myself would they actually do it. I think it's worth the discussing the possibility, even for fun with a couple months to go before the draft. So to set up the trade, here's my first 6 picks. 

 

1. Cincinnati - Burrows - I can't really see anyone else going here unless someone offers the farm, then it's going to still be for a QB and it will still be Burrows

 

2. Washington - Young - RR is not going to pass up the opportunity to grab Chase Young. He lives and dies by his D, and the best defender in this draft goes here. 

 

3. Detroit - Brown - This is where things start to change a little. Simmons or Okudah are likely, but I won't ignore the possibility of Brown here. I think they go with Brown to provide a core to build that defense around. 

 

4. NY Giants - Jeudy - Dave loves his hog mollies and if Brown is available, he could be the pick. Thomas is possible also. My gut tells me though he will surprise and take Jeudy. He has Barkley and Jones, now he needs a receiver. Tackles are risky, so are corners, and with his job on the line this season, I think Nippleshorts make the safe sure bet for maximum quick impact and gives his young QB a game changing WR. 

 

5. Miami - Tua - Miami needs a QB. Tua is the pick. They just traded away Tunsil so drafting another OT here makes no sense. That team is hot garbage. Tua will give the franchise hope again.

 

6. LA Chargers - Hebert - Rivers is out, Hebert is in. The only other option here I see as possible is grabbing a tackle. Having graded in the bottom 5 for OL (depending where you look) Thomas, Wills or Wirfs could be the choice, but not likely. 

 

This leaves Carolina sitting at 7 with Okudah (CB) Simmons (LB) Thomas(OT) or Wills (OT) as the top players that Carolina would pick. So then the question becomes who would realistically trade up? Not Arizona, if they want a tackle, they get 1 of the top 2 without moving. The 3 teams that could want to move are Jacksonville (9,20), Jets (11), and Raiders (12,19). 

 

First would be Jacksonville. Trade Carolina 1st(7) for Jacksonville 1st(9) and 3rd(73). Okudah and Simmons would both fill a need. Ironically enough, Carolina may need both as well with Luke retiring and Bradberry possibly walking in FA. If they're afraid we might take the guy they really want, they make make a move. Of the 3, this is the least likely to move. 

 

Second, the J-E-T-S. Trade Carolina 1st(7) for NY Jets 1st(11), 3rd(68) and 4th(110). The Jets need a tackle to protect Darnold and with Carolina needing a tackle, as well as Cleveland, both top tackles could be gone. 3 picks is a lot to give up for a team with a lot of needs, but landing a potential franchise LT could be tempting. 

 

Third, the Raiders. Trade Carolina 1st(7) and 2nd(38) for Raiders 1st(12) and (19). I see this actually being really possible. With Simmons and Okudah/Brown(whichever Det doesn't pick) available, the Raiders could make a move. They need a corner desperately and Okudah is gifted. They would also get an early 2nd rounder to grab one of the surprise guys that falls out of the 1st. Gruden may jump at the chance to get an elite playmaker, and Mayock will recognize the value in grabbing a guy that could have gone top 3, as well as someone who they thought would be available at 19. This could really be beneficial to both teams. 

 

So the picks would continue, IMO, like this with Carolina making the trade that makes the most sense to me with the Raiders. 

 

7. Las Vegas - Okudah. Immediately fills one of the teams biggest needs with a guy that has all the measurables. Think Jalen Ramsey or Patrick Peterson possibilities. 

8. Arizona - Wills - Fitz is a shell of his former self. The Cards need a receiver, but need to protect their QB and they make the move for Wills.

9. Jacksonville - Simmons - Jacksonville has 2 top needs in CB and LB and this pick fits the bill. 

10. Cleveland - Thomas - Cleveland needs o-line help. Thomas is a pretty simple pick at this point

11. NY Jets - Wirfs - Oline help needed again and Wirfs, while not the most athletic, could be an anchor tackle in the NFL.

12. Carolina - Javon Kinlaw - Carolina needs a DT and this guy is really impressing. He's driven and his work ethic reminds me of TD. He could be "that guy" for this defense.

 

and with 19. Carolina - Mekhi Becton - We need a tackle and this guy has all the measurables to do that. He needs to lose some weight, but he is fluid for a guy his size. Draws comparisons to Bryant McKinnie. Projected mid to late 1st round right now, but could change after the combine. 

 

Overall, 12 is as far down as I'm willing to move with our first pick and the Raiders would make the most sense as a trading partner if we did move.

 

Thoughts on making a move with the Raiders? Is there another team that might be a better trade partner? Or is the idea of trading back lunacy?

no. 

[Brooklyn 3.0]

Highly doubt someone will trade up to 7 to get those leftovers.

[PanthersBigD]

If Hurney is somehow inexplicably still in charge of the draft, then no. 

[Shocker]

Worth the discussion for sure and I do like Kinlaw but I want a premium guy like Simmons or Okudah.  3rd round is pretty weak IMO.

Also, think Okudah goes at 3 and Brown is probably there.  Guess we’ll see 

[Captain Morgan]

16 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

I've been doing several mocks on first-pick, since that site offers trades, and have been toying with the idea of trading back in the draft

 

that was a great post Smokin, I appreciate your work.  I think a lot of posters would appreciate if when other posters were quoting they would delete irrelevant parts of long posts.

I've got strong feelings on special players that I don't want to miss out on.  Ones who should be elite or very close, like Derrick Brown, and maybe Simmons and Thomas.   I think Okudah is, but I think he'll be gone and I really want us to address other positions first.

So let's say all 4 of those are gone at 7.  I think one will be, with a good possibility of 3 QBs being taken before our pick, after Herbert's strong showing a the Senior Bowl.

But if Thomas, Brown and Simmons aren't there, I'd look at trading back, but not too far.

Some things were have needs for that the Huddle hasn't talked about because so many scream "OL in the first 5 rounds" and that kind of thing...we don't have a 4-3 DE. 

If we can trade back and get Epenesa I'm cool with that.  We have our starting DTs back from injury next year, we have a skinny Burns at DE.

We need a much better OL, but if a sure thing isn't there at Left Tackle only, there is no IOL value at 7.  We can get a 10-plus yearstarting center in Rd 2, where we got Ryan, and the value is there this year.

Another thing the Huddle doesn't talk about is our need for an OLB if we don't get Simmons.  This is no small thing.  It looks like Shaq will move inside, and I'd rather spend a pick in 2-4 on OLB than trust what we have.

This is all with Cam as our QB.  If not QB1, I don't even have an opinion, I'll just sit back and watch.  Seems like I remember our new HC being quoted something like "trust the process.  If we go 1-15, so be it."  Not exact words.

If that's the path, I'll settle into my familiar "seat of tanking" and watch.

 

[SmokinwithWilly]

7 minutes ago, Captain Morgan said:

I've got strong feelings on special players that I don't want to miss out on.  Ones who should be elite or very close, like Derrick Brown, and maybe Simmons and Thomas.   I think Okudah is, but I think he'll be gone and I really want us to address other positions first.

Likewise, I have some strong feelings about guys. I really like Brown, and at 7 it would be hard to trade away if he was there. Okudah falls into the same category and would be hard to pass up, especially if Bradberry is lost to FA. I'll be honest, while I know Kinlaw isn't as elite as Brown, I feel like his drive and passion could really set the tone for the defense. Becton for me really depends on his combine and workouts. He has the size and the gifts, the question is can he use it at the NFL level. If so, I think it could be giving up a little to gain a lot. You still get a high end DT and possibly franchise tackle, and most importantly, it keeps Hurney drafting in the 1st where his likelihood of hitting a home run is a lot higher. 

[KatsAzz]

41 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

I've been doing several mocks on first-pick, since that site offers trades, and have been toying with the idea of trading back in the draft.

 

" I look your mock draft and appreciate the time and effort you put into making it. The only problem i would have is there would be a chance that DT Javon Kinlaw,who i like a lot, may not be there if we move back to the 12th spot."

[Captain Morgan]

3 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

Likewise, I have some strong feelings about guys. I really like Brown, and at 7 it would be hard to trade away if he was there. Okudah falls into the same category and would be hard to pass up, especially if Bradberry is lost to FA. I'll be honest, while I know Kinlaw isn't as elite as Brown, I feel like his drive and passion could really set the tone for the defense. Becton for me really depends on his combine and workouts. He has the size and the gifts, the question is can he use it at the NFL level. If so, I think it could be giving up a little to gain a lot. You still get a high end DT and possibly franchise tackle, and most importantly, it keeps Hurney drafting in the 1st where his likelihood of hitting a home run is a lot higher. 

 

I don't even want to think of a world in which Bradberry isn't resigned.  We don't have to pay him top 5 money, pay him what he's earned...top 7 - 10 money and keep him.  A big problem with the Panthers over the last 10 years if not being able to afford our good guys (Marty 1.0 and Getty's castration of our cap with Matt K.)  So they walk.  

And we add another gaping hole to our roster.  

I think we sign him.  We still may need CB2 unless our new coach can fix Djax.

Kinlaw had a very good Senior Bowl week, and he's rising...he still worries me.   But I'd be ok with him if we moved back.

Actually, if we move back I don't have any really strong feelings about what we do.  I'm kind sold on my top 3 of Thomas, Brown and Simmons.

Of course, the combine is yet to come.  I really hope this year we do a better job at being rising up Big Boards than trying to find value in those dropping down ...like Jimmy C and sadly,  Greg Little (not counting him out yet, despite using a 2 and a 3rd to get him).

[RumHam]

Am I the only one that thinks this draft is going to be full of busts? Like no one is attractive or stands out. It was supposed to be all Tua and yeah Burrow is great if he gets put in a good situation with coaching and offensive protection and weapons. I'll be highly disappointed if we settle on a DT in the first. I see Hurney eyeing linebacker all day long and i'm perfectly fine with that. If we can trade down a few spots, i'm definitely open to it. I'm more worried about Hurney trading back up into the top 15 to reach on someone. I'd bet over 2 on how many times hurney trades up in the draft.

[NYPantherFan]

I can't see teams wanting to trade up to our spot at the moment. 3 QB needy teams are already in front of us. It might get interesting if, and this is a big if, Miami passes on a QB at 5 then maybe comes calling to package 18 and 26 to come back up and get their QB if Chargers don't take him. Could also start a bidding war with Raiders and Colts. But if Burrow, Tua and Herbert are all gone before us at 7, there is no reason to trade back. I'm only trading back for 2 1st rounders in this draft or a 1st and 2 2nd rounders.

[MrBubba]

It comes down to the offer.  I would seriously look at trading down.  This draft is deep.  Extra picks could be gold, and accelerate rebuild

[Ivan The Awesome]

Had the panthers had the #5 pick in the draft, this topic would be more enticing. At the moment. I don't see any team wanted to trade into the top 10 unless they are really enamoured with a player and have a huge need. Seeing as the QB needy teams all took a QB already, this indicates that there won't be a huge jump on whatever team is left to pick a QB. 

 

I wouldn't trade back to be honest. Pick the best T or DL and move on. Unless the Raiders or the Dolphins want to trade up and offer their first rounders...stick to #7 and pick. 

[GoPanthers123]

I think getting two tackles in the first round would be a coup, all for it.