A Path to Trevor or Fields---without "Tanking"

[MHS831]

I guess the point is---all trades etc. should be for 2021 picks, not 2020 picks.  Miami did it, and they will probably move up (Detroit, NYG) to keep Tua--because they have a ton of draft capital.  What if they won 2 more games?  They could still move into the top 3.

[stan786]

If the QBs are as good as they say you’ll have to pay a hefty premium to get up to get one of them. Would be shocked if moving up from 5 to 2 in that scenario doesn’t involve an extra 1.  Trade chart gets tossed out the window with “generational” QBs.

[Jon Snow]

34 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Yes---I questioned why even bring in a Mariota--but you need something at QB since Cam and Allen are prolly gone.

Don't worry, ol'Hurndog will find the next HOF QB on someone's practice squad to back up Grier this season.  Unless he just throws caution to the wind and trades up for someone this coming draft.   Prepare thy anus.

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, stan786 said:

If the QBs are as good as they say you’ll have to pay a hefty premium to get up to get one of them. Would be shocked if moving up from 5 to 2 in that scenario doesn’t involve an extra 1.  Trade chart gets tossed out the window with “generational” QBs.

And if you get a franchise qb--worth it.  Of course, being the worst team in the NFL would help. At least for a few years, the team should have cap room

[JARROD]

Man I’m not pulling for sucking.

again, I’m a spades fanatic and hate hearts.

you guys all play hearts.

[MHS831]

18 minutes ago, JARROD said:

Man I’m not pulling for sucking.

again, I’m a spades fanatic and hate hearts.

you guys all play hearts.

If you bring in a beaten down QB and he does well, you don't suck.  You win.  If you build 2021 draft picks, you get a higher round pick and you can trade up much easier.  If you bring in Mariota and he balls, then you suddenly do not need a QB so early, etc.  so if you win, you win, and if you lose, you win.

[MHS831]

From what I can tell right now, I think the QB market is better this year than next----fwiw---and a lot can change.  Last year, who knew Burrow?

[SmokinwithWilly]

All of this is based on whoever's got the first being willing to trade it. Chances are whoever has that slot needs a QB and isn't going to give that up for a 1st and some 2nds.

[Call Me James]

New owner. 

3 consecutive losing seasons each worse than the previous one. 

4 fan favorites forced out. 1 retired. 

Yea. fug that. 

[Reebis21]

13 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Not perfect, but it is a plan.  The rest of the 2021 draft could be to solidify the remaining needs. (DE, SS--after releasing Reid, and OL again). We have a young roster, a manageable cap, and a star QB to build around.

This works ONLY if two QB needy teams don’t end up with picks 1 and 2. I’d like to tank and do your plan haha

[pantherclaw]

No one will want to be with a team that tanks

I would prefer not to becomet he Cleveland Browns. .

[stbugs]

11 hours ago, MHS831 said:

From what I can tell right now, I think the QB market is better this year than next----fwiw---and a lot can change.  Last year, who knew Burrow?

It’s the one year wonders who are the riskiest. If Tua doesn’t get hurt then I think there was a clear top guy start to finish. 2021 has some clear top guys already. I don’t know why people are so gun shy about admitting that the top of the 2021 QB draft class is stronger than most years. Oh, Luck didn’t come out that means Lawrence and Fields will stay. Oh, the Dolphins tried to tank and failed. They played the Jets, Cincy and the Colts with Hoyer (only best us in their awful finish).

[Mr Mojo Risin]

16 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Hypothetical perspective---off season. (I usually only start threads in the offseason when people start repetitious, threads.)  I have been reading about tanking etc.  and thought I would develop a way to assure a high first pick while developing a winning attitude.  Our record is not the only way we can draft early.

Now that it seems logical and reasonable to assume a position that Cam will be dealt in March, what can we do to assure that we get one of the top 2 QBs in 2021?  Lose on purpose?  Hard to convince coaches and players to risk their jobs for a college player.  Not necessary.  Understand that there are many approaches and this perspective is only one:

You do not tank on the field this year as some have suggested; you simply make trades and accumulate draft picks.  Here is how I might do it:

• Do not draft a QB this year if you do not like the QBs.  Use the picks on OL, DL, WR, CB.  I think the OL needs to be in place first anyway. 
• Do not re-sign Bradberry.  He is not worth $16m. No zone CB with 8 career picks is.  If we get a third-round comp pick, it can be traded.
• Sign a cut QB starter---for $8m for a season or two:  Derek Carr, Mariota, Tribuski, for example, could be available. Let's see how one might do in this system for a year.  Grier needs competition. Yes, they may suck now, but Tanneyhill showed how a different system can reinvigorate a career.  If they suck again here in 2020, we pick top 3 in 2021.  If they are decent, we have a younger QB to compete with the 2021 draft pick.
• Trade Cam for a 2021 second rounder would be more strategic than a 3rd rounder this year. 
• If we were to move back five-seven picks in the draft, for example, we could acquire another 2021 second rounder and still get a top OT or DL (Wirfs or Kinlaw, for example).  
• Continue to create cap savings (Cam, Poe, etc.), we can trade a player with value for a 2021 pick. This will make some of you scream, but Trai Turner (yes, he is young--26 I think) has value and has been to pro bowls.  While the OL needs to be developed, Turner is overhyped and overpaid, imo.  Move him and sign a less-expensive free agent. 
• With some of the created or saved cap room, fill gaps with 1-2 year contracts in 2020.  (LG, LB, S, TE, for example)
• Extend your core:  Moton, CMC get new deals with part of the cap savings.

Summarizing:  You are accumulating draft capital and using cap room to fill the gaps.  If moving a player or letting a player walk leads to a future draft pick--not 2020, but 2021--then do it.

2020 Draft (example):

• 1.  Wirfs LT.  (Greg Little / Daley to compete for RG since I traded Trai)
• 2.  Blacklock, DT (3t, 5t)
• 3.  Danzler, CB
• 4.  Fotu, DT (1t)
• 5.  Edwards, WR
• 6. Hansen, C
• 7.  Rodriquez, K

2021 Draft:

1.  Top 10 pick  (say we finish in the fifth spot like Miami this year since we seem to be following their blueprint)  Here are the assets to use to move up for Fields or Lawrence:

• 2.  early second round pick, second round (Cam), second round (Trade back 2021 draft)
• 3.  early third round pick, Turner trade pick, Bradberry Comp pick.

Assume that we ONLY bargain with the picks acquired in 2020 trades (Cam 2nd, draft 2nd, and Turner 3rd, and the comp pick). Let's say that we offer our first in addition to all of these picks.  We can move from the fifth to the second pick--if the first pick is available, we could throw in our 2021 third rounder--to get Trevor or Fields. 

Not perfect, but it is a plan.  The rest of the 2021 draft could be to solidify the remaining needs. (DE, SS--after releasing Reid, and OL again). We have a young roster, a manageable cap, and a star QB to build around.

 

 

 

Do you really think a team is going to give up a good draft pick for Cam without him agreeing to an extension first? Why would a team give up such a high pick for essentially a 1 year deal?

[stbugs]

45 minutes ago, pantherclaw said:

No one will want to be with a team that tanks

I would prefer not to becomethe Cleveland Browns. .

You guys have the dumbest arguments against tanking. The Browns rebuild didn’t work because they legitimately drafted so bad that 90% of their 1st round picks were the biggest busts.

Again, we, the Carolina Panthers, tanked twice and both times drafted studs who helped us get to multiple playoffs and a SB each time.

It’s a lazy post to ignore our own history and compare tanking to being the Browns, the team who has the worst rebuilding record in the NFL.

Also, tanking <> trying to lose games. It means don’t try to sign mediocre FAs to try and get to 7-9. It means to try and build up more picks and position yourself to get better talent instead of building around guys who finished the last two years 1-15. It means to identify the weapons you have that you can build around.

Maybe you guys have enjoyed the 1-15 finishes and don’t want to blow up the phenomenal play we’ve seen the past two years. I do.